A catastrophic scenario awaits Europe... What if Russia cuts the internet cable?

European authorities fear that Russia will cut off submarine internet cables, which would have dire economic consequences, experts warn.

In a report published by the French newspaper "Le Parisien", writer Juliette Beauson says that with the escalation of the war in Ukraine, concerns about the safety of the submarine cables carrying the Internet that provide communication between continents have increased, as specialists fear that Russia - in response to Western sanctions - will destroy these infrastructures. basic of the European economy.

A disturbing topic or a real threat?

Experts believe that it is unimaginable how dangerous this scenario will be, but the possibility of its realization is not excluded in light of the most serious conflict in Europe since the Cold War.

In 2017, Marshall Beach, then chair of the NATO Military Committee, warned that "disruption from cutting cables or destroying Internet infrastructure will have an immediate catastrophic effect on both international commerce and the Internet."

There are two very important knots of submarine cable between Europe and the United States: one lies off the coast of Britain, and the other near Ireland, near which the Russian oceanographic ship Yintar was seen in August 2021.

“In recent years, great powers like Russia have sent us signals that they can find and cut cables,” says Serge Besanger, a professor at the Graduate School of Business in Paris.

Serious economic consequences

Nearly 97% of global Internet traffic and $10 billion in daily financial transactions pass through fiber-optic cables that lie at the bottom of the ocean.

According to the European Council on International Relations, a European think-tank, these cables are "as important as gas and oil pipelines".

97% of global internet traffic and $10 billion of daily financial transactions pass through fiber-optic cables that lie at the bottom of the ocean (Getty Images)

What would happen if a cable was cut?

Jean-Luc Vuillemin, Director of International Networks at Orange, answered this question in an interview with La Tribune, saying that there would be "no more internet in Europe".

But this will not lead Europe to a dead end - as Serge Bessanger referred to it - but will find itself "isolated from other continents".

Maurice Gagnaire, a professor specializing in optical and wireless networks at Telecom in Paris, warned that "the economic consequences will be very serious as European stock exchanges will not be connected to the global network and international transactions will stop, and the impact will be great on GAFAM companies." (The Five World Wide Web Companies).

The writer stated that cutting the cables just once would be enough to cut "international business", as well as "millions of phone calls."

Serge Besanger stressed that the submarine cables are fragile and the average diameter is not much larger than the diameter of the water hose we use in the garden, and this means that accidents are likely to occur.

Bisanger cited a cable-cutting incident in Vietnam in 2007, in which fishermen cut cables for sale disrupting "almost 90% of the country's communications with the rest of the world for 3 weeks".

And what about Russia, which also benefits from these submarine cables, wouldn't its economy be affected if these cables were cut?

The specialist says that "the sanctions have little effect on Russia because it is an almost self-sufficient country, in addition to its weak international transactions."

Not enough alternate plans

There are a number of emergency procedures in place when one of these cables breaks.

Morris Gagnaire stated that "the operators have taken the necessary precautions, that the primary cables take the shortest route to their destination while the secondary cables route is different and longer".

But according to Professor Etienne Derwar, a lawyer in the field of personal data and cyber security, "these secondary cables do not have the same strength, and we will quickly find ourselves in a deteriorating situation."

For its part, the French government is working to secure these submarine cables as part of its "France 2030" investment plan announced in November 2021.

The Ministry of the Armed Forces confirmed on February 14, 10 days before Russia invaded Ukraine, that "France is working to strengthen its military exploratory capabilities in the deep sea by providing unmanned submarines and robots, in order to expand its search capabilities and reach a depth of 6 thousand meters." ".