BEIRUT -
Days away from the closing of the door for candidacy for the parliamentary elections on March 15, the confusion of the political forces representing the Sunni community in Lebanon is exacerbating.
Observers believe that the echo of the leader of the "Future Movement" Saad Hariri's comment on his political work and his participation in the elections did not subside even within the ranks of the movement, as some of its cadres did not accept the meaning of withdrawing from political life, which was finally manifested in the announcement of Mustafa Alloush, Vice President of the Future Movement, his resignation from his position. He was one of the most prominent founders of the movement 24 years ago, and accompanied the careers of the late Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and his son Saad.
Although what is known as political Haririya led the Sunni community since the early nineties of the last century and was known as a cross-regional trend, the sect was distinguished by different political colors, between religious movements such as the Islamic Group and the Islamic Projects Association, and between figures loyal to Hezbollah and regional forces and leaders such as Prime Minister Najib Mikati, the descendant From Tripoli, he has also not decided his choice to run.
However, Hariri's decision, since the end of last January, caused a great political shake-up for allies and opponents.
In order not to understand Hariri’s position as a call to boycott the elections, a religious movement was launched by the Mufti of the Republic, Sheikh Abdul Latif Derian, and a political movement by leaders from the Sunni sect, to stress the need to participate in the elections by candidacy and voting.
Siniora's movement
At the end of last February, former Prime Minister Fouad Siniora announced that he was considering the option of his candidacy for the elections on May 15, and called on Sunni voters to participate heavily and not to boycott, which reinforced the division within the Future Movement, between those insisting on adhering to Hariri’s decision, which stipulated that no one would run for office. From his party, unless he resigns from the current, and among supporters of Siniora's position, such as Mustafa Alloush.
In an interview with Al-Jazeera Net, Siniora says that Lebanon is witnessing what he described as a "national crisis," noting that the battle "between those who want the state and those who act against its logic, that is, Hezbollah."
He said that Hariri's withdrawal negatively affected the national and sectarian scene, and "what I am doing is not a coup within the sect, and I will be the first to stand with Hariri if he returns to political life."
But the question, in his opinion, is: Should Sunni voters be allowed to boycott the elections?
And he answers that such an act "will lead to a great defeat for the idea of the state."
The solution, according to the former prime minister, "is to confront the boycott as permitted by the constitution, and to call for massive participation in the elections."
With his statement, he confirms that he is working to form an electoral list in Beirut and the areas with Sunni weight, which he has the ability to influence, according to his description.
He believes that he is not bound by the options of the "future", and that he is moving based on his convictions and political experience, "to confront anyone who wants to keep the state hostage to him."
Siniora stresses the need for the Sunni community in Lebanon not to abandon its historical role, noting that his position needs an internal embrace first, and "an Arab and Gulf embrace in defense of Lebanese sectarian balances."
Alloush and resignation backgrounds
For his part, Mustafa Alloush reveals some aspects of his differences with Hariri, and tells Al Jazeera Net that his resignation is the result of accumulation, and that his position as deputy head of the movement did not allow him to participate in the fateful decisions, so he was just a recipient, despite his position rejecting Hariri's withdrawal from political life.
And he talks about his repeated warnings to Hariri about what he calls "the danger of keeping the Sunni arena empty for emergency and Hezbollah loyalists."
He points out that his understanding with Siniora made him face criticism within "Al-Mustaqbal" and accusations of non-fulfillment, "I submitted my resignation 3 times until Hariri accepted it."
"My concern is not to run for office or not, but to limit the loss that Hariri caused to his base by not providing clear answers about participation or boycotting the polls," he said.
He explains that he is working with Siniora and a group of personalities to shape a political case, whether with their direct participation or support for a regulation despite financial challenges.
On the other hand, the Sunni figures loyal to Hezbollah act as if they are not interested in the options and rules of the "future", so they complete their preparations for the elections and weave their lists and alliances in various constituencies.
In the forefront of these are the deputies of the "Consultative Meeting" who are close to Hezbollah, and they are: Adnan Traboulsi (Projects Association - Beirut), Faisal Karami (Tripoli), Jihad Al-Samad (Dennieh), Walid Sukkarieh (Northern Bekaa), Abdel Rahim Murad (West Bekaa). .
Traboulsi refuses to describe the state of the Sunni community as confusion, "because it is not monopolized by anyone."
Traboulsi confirmed their readiness to contest the elections with their allies, "but we have not finished forming the lists," and believes that their challenges are related to the living, economic and political situation.
Winners and Losers
The researcher and specialist in electoral affairs, Kamal Feghali, sheds light on the reality of the Sunni community since before Hariri suspended his political work, speaking of polls that showed popular and political frustration afflicting Sunni-majority areas more than others, because they are "more poor and marginalized like cities and villages in northern Lebanon."
He explained - to Al Jazeera Net - that "Al-Mustaqbal" declined in its popular presence in previous years, like most parties, but Hariri's withdrawal may, in his opinion, lead to a change in the balance of power, "due to the possibility of dispersal of votes and boycotting a large segment of his supporters."
It goes back to the 2018 elections, when the "Al-Mustaqbal" list in Beirut came first, followed by the list of Hezbollah.
And if the situation continues, he says, "Hezbollah may be able to take first place in Beirut, and gain additional Sunni seats in support of it through its allies in various regions."
He adds that the forces of change and the Sunni opposition may not be able to attract many votes "because of their divisions and their lack of unity in a single coalition."
In parallel, writer and political analyst Hussein Ayoub believes that the negative repercussions of Hariri's withdrawal will not end, expecting - in an interview with Al Jazeera Net - that it will lead to a decline in the movement of nominations from the Sunni community, and affect the participation rate and the quality of those who will represent them in the next parliament.
He said that the main challenge is to harmonize between Hariri's decision and who will fill the void, and finds that there is a wide range of possibilities ahead, including:
The emergence of new Sunni leaders.
Or reopening some Sunni political homes and being able to progress and move.
Or "dedicating" some of this segment's seats to the March 8 forces, specifically Hezbollah.
Or the arrival of qualified personalities to occupy the transitional phase in preparation for the possible return of Hariri after 4 years of elections.
Ayoub believes that Siniora's movement may tighten nerves and add some vitality, but in his opinion, "it will not increase the percentage of Sunni participation much."
He is likely to face a major bump "if the future decides to move from positive to negative neutrality - and I expect that - that is, preventing Siniora from winning the votes of the Future Movement."
He finds that the most affected by what he describes as disturbing the Sunni arena is Hariri and his movement, "because the political experience that Hariri has accumulated, particularly since Rafik Hariri's arrival as prime minister in 1992, is meant to be erased."
Contrary to many, Ayoub believes that the second victim is Hezbollah, which is suited to having a moderate current at its head, Hariri, and the progress of anti-Sunni groups, whose behavior differs from that of Hariri, who used to link the conflict with the party, does not suit it.