Ukraine's war... a test of boundless friendship between China and Russia

During a friendly meeting last February, Chinese President Xi Jinping and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, forged an "unlimited" friendship.

But just a month later, the war on Ukraine tested the strength of those ties.

With international outrage and mounting sanctions against Moscow, Beijing is striving to avoid being hurt by the partnership and, at the same time, to maintain their close ties.

Russia and China were staunch enemies during the Cold War, but since Xi took power nearly a decade ago, they have achieved an unprecedented rapprochement, united especially by a desire to counter American influence.

It seems that China has found itself in a difficult position, after the Russian military offensive and the Ukrainian resistance and the magnitude of the international anti-Kremlin reaction that resulted.

Beijing was forced to do rhetorical maneuvers over Ukraine to avoid angering Russia.

Maintaining only verbal endorsement of national sovereignty, China has stressed that Moscow is correct in its security concerns regarding Ukraine and the expansion of the US-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

Likewise, Beijing refused to condemn Moscow, and government spokesmen objected to describing the Russian attack on Ukraine as an "invasion."

security and economy

 "You can see the confusion in the early statements," says Sergei Radchenko, a professor at Johns Hopkins University of Advanced International Studies.

 Beijing's failure to approach the situation with caution risks being seen as a Putin enabler that could alienate Western trading partners and jeopardize the fragile balance of ties that China has forged in recent years with Russia and Ukraine.

Richard Gyasi, an expert at the Hague Center for Strategic Studies, says the emerging situation has effectively paralyzed China.

He explains that "security interests always trump economic interests" in China's calculations, so it will not fundamentally shift toward a more pro-Ukrainian stance.

He notes that Russia is "a giant, nuclear-armed, resource-rich neighboring country" that Beijing would not risk provoking it.

Making it more difficult for China to put the plight of its 6,000 citizens in Ukraine, who are gradually being evacuated by road and trains to neighboring countries, along with other displaced people, is made more difficult.

 More than a dozen governments urged their citizens to leave Ukraine in mid-February, but China refrained from taking such a step.

Instead, it asked its citizens to "keep calm" and stay at home even as Russian forces entered Ukraine, and was forced to cancel a proposed air bridge after Kyiv closed its airspace to civilian aircraft.

 In a sign that Beijing misread the situation, its embassy in Ukraine initially urged its citizens to put the country's flag on their cars as a precaution, but quickly retracted this recommendation after some reported experiencing subsequent hostility from local residents.

“The political stance adopted by the Chinese government has made things difficult for its citizens there,” says Manoj Kewalramani of Bangalore's Takshashila Institute for Studies.

"If Chinese are killed in Ukraine, it will be difficult to maintain the pro-Russian neutrality of the Beijing government today," he added.

mediator role

With little room to maneuver, China is adopting a moderator.

 During a phone call last week, Xi asked Putin to resolve the crisis with a "sustainable European security mechanism through negotiations," while the foreign minister told his Ukrainian counterpart that Beijing "regretted" the conflict and hoped the two sides could reach a diplomatic solution.

But Steve Tsang, director of the University of London's China Institute for Oriental and African Studies, said any mediating role China played would not amount to using its influence to persuade Putin to change his mind.

"It's outward neutrality, but in reality, (China) is still on Russia's side," he added.

A negotiated solution is considered the least bad scenario for Beijing, according to analysts.

Tsang added that in China's worst case, tougher sanctions on Russia, or the failure of its military objectives in Ukraine, would lead to an uprising that would remove Putin from power, which could lead to the formation of a pro-Western government in Moscow.

"I doubt that Xi wants the war in Ukraine to escalate. But he wants to see Putin able to get what he wants without causing major collateral damage to China and its relations with the rest of the world," he added.