It is difficult to know what the Russians really think about the war, but most people are against it, says Stefan Hedlund, senior professor of Eastern State research at Uppsala University who has followed Russia for decades.
- I think we will see a strong increase in protests in the streets and squares of Russia.
They will be beaten down with increasing brutality from special forces.
It will surely be quite bloody.
Isolation and sanctions do not bite
But the fact that isolation and economic sanctions now affect ordinary Russians will not change Putin's conviction of winning the war, Stefan Hedlund believes.
- If there are not millions of people on the streets, Putin will not care.
What one can hope for then is that the men in his vicinity then begin to think that it is starting to get difficult and that they have to replace him.
But how would that work in this system?
he asks himself.
Hard to access
Putin is protected by bodyguards and security forces and is difficult to access.
But what could threaten the Russian president is if the military turns against him because the Russian military is destroyed for a future generation by a protracted, costly war, Stefan Hedlund believes.
- If the military leadership realizes that this is a war they can not win, which it is, then the question is whether they dare to mutiny and go against Putin.
Then there will be a war between the regular army and the security forces.
In that case, Putin would probably be free.
Civil war
You do not rule out civil war in Russia as a result?
- No, it is not possible to exclude anything, says Stefan Hedlund.