How will the South Korean election affect the situation in Northeast Asia?
South Korea is approaching election day after months of scuffles.
On March 9, local time, the 20th South Korean presidential election will be officially held, and who will be the president will be announced soon.
In this election, the ruling party's Democratic Party's presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung represents the progressive camp, and the presidential candidate from the largest opposition National Power Party, Yin Xiyue, represents the conservative camp.
The two have had similar approval ratings for months, and the gap is basically within the margin of error.
Therefore, the outside world believes that the next South Korean president will be produced among the two.
It is worth noting that there are obvious differences between Li Zaiming and Yin Xiyue in foreign and security policies. Therefore, whoever is elected as the next South Korean president will have a relatively large impact on the future geopolitical pattern of Northeast Asia.
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Changes in the international situation lead to heated discussions on diplomatic issues
In South Korea's previous presidential elections, foreign policy issues have rarely been the focus of the campaign.
The same is true early in this presidential election.
Starting from February 3, the four major presidential candidates have held a series of televised debates, but most of the topics focused on domestic issues such as the economy, people's livelihood, and social welfare. Several candidates also attacked each other through scandals.
However, since the end of February, with the further escalation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the remarks of several presidential candidates on the Russia-Ukraine issue have sparked heated discussions, and the issue of diplomatic security has therefore become one of the hot topics in South Korea's presidential election.
Shin Yul, a professor at Myongji University in South Korea, said the controversy over Ukraine between Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Seok-yue was just part of a recent series of scandals between the two leading candidates, but the incident made many people realize that the two Each candidate has virtually no diplomatic experience.
"Touching on diplomatic issues without correct historical understanding and diplomatic considerations may lead to both sides being unflattering," Shen Yu told Reuters.
In fact, both Lee Jae-myung and Yin Xiyue are considered unconventional presidential candidates, and neither has extensive political experience.
Li Zaiming had previously served as the mayor of Seongnam and the governor of Gyeonggi Province, while Yin Xiyue had been working in the procuratorial system and served as the chief prosecutor of South Korea.
But neither of them has ever been elected to Congress and lacks experience on the center stage of South Korean politics.
But Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Sek-yue are also the most popular presidential candidates, and their approval ratings have been neck and neck.
According to the survey results released by the polling agency Gallup Korea on March 4, Yin Xiyue's approval rate was 39% and Li Zaiming's 38%, and the gap between the two was within the margin of error.
The Korea Times reported that in previous presidential elections, foreign affairs seldom became a major campaign issue, but as the current international situation continues to change, candidates have engaged in heated debates on the Russia-Ukraine crisis and the situation on the Korean Peninsula. , which also highlights the differences in their positions in the field of diplomatic security.
The field of diplomatic security may face a watershed
"The South Korean presidential election on March 9 may become a watershed in South Korea's diplomatic and security field." Li Wei, a researcher at the Institute of American Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with a reporter from the Beijing News that although the domestic economic problems of people's livelihood are the main problem in South Korea this time The focus of the general election, but the issue of diplomatic security has also attracted great attention.
It is particularly worth noting that although Li Zaiming and Yin Xiyue's policy propositions on domestic issues are different, they are generally similar.
However, in the field of diplomatic security, the differences between the two are very obvious.
According to an analysis on the website of the Council on Foreign Relations of the United States, whether it is Li Zaiming of the progressive camp or Yin Xiyue of the conservative camp, neither of them have previous diplomatic experience, so their foreign policy positions basically reflect the inherent positions of their parties.
In terms of foreign security policy, South Korean conservatives advocate the consolidation of the South Korea-US alliance as the cornerstone of South Korea's foreign security policy, while progressives do not deny that the South Korea-US alliance is the cornerstone of South Korea's diplomacy, but believe that the influence of the United States on South Korea should be minimized. The policies of "autonomous diplomacy" and "autonomous national defense".
This is consistent with the foreign policy philosophy of the two leading presidential candidates.
Li Yang pointed out that Yin Xiyue's diplomatic program is relatively clear, that is, to formulate South Korea's foreign policy based on the South Korea-US alliance.
Therefore, if Yin Xiyue takes office, he is likely to strengthen the South Korea-US alliance, join the Five Eyes alliance and the US-Japan-India-Australia "Quad Security Dialogue" mechanism, deploy the THAAD system, and actively cooperate with the US Indo-Pacific strategy.
By contrast, Lee Jae-myung's diplomatic agenda is relatively vague.
Li Zong said, "Li Zaiming proposed the line of pragmatic diplomacy, that is, basically continuing the foreign security policy of the Moon Jae-in government and seeking a balance between China and the United States. But what exactly this pragmatic diplomacy looks like, he did not give any information. A very clear explanation, and further observations are needed in the future.”
Zheng Jiyong, director of the Center for North Korea and South Korea Studies at Fudan University, also told the Beijing News that the candidates belonging to the two factions do have relatively large policy differences in the field of diplomatic security, especially during the campaign stage, when both parties will be tougher. Consolidate voter support for yourself and win the election.
However, Zheng Jiyong believes that a change in South Korea's president will have a greater impact on the country than on the outside.
He explained that South Korea is a country with a very sharp opposition between the left and the right, so the positions of both parties are to be expected.
In addition, South Korean presidential elections are held every five years, and parliamentary elections are held every four years. The two are basically staggered, so the two sides will form a certain degree of restriction.
"The new South Korean president will focus on domestic issues after he takes office. In terms of diplomacy, the new government may make some tactical adjustments - for example, when Yin Xiyue takes office, he may follow the United States more, in dealing with the DPRK and China. The issue is tougher, which will have some impact on the regional situation. But overall, the impact will still be relatively limited." Zheng Jiyong said.
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How will the general election affect the situation on the peninsula?
In South Korea's foreign strategy, the Korean Peninsula issue is one of the cores.
In particular, current President Moon Jae-in has made improving inter-Korean relations one of his core goals.
During his tenure, the situation on the peninsula has also made some progress. By promoting the dialogue between the leaders of the DPRK and the DPRK and the summit meeting between the DPRK and the United States, the relationship between the DPRK and the ROK has entered a stable state.
However, in the second half of Moon Jae-in's term, the relationship between the DPRK and the ROK failed to advance further, and the situation on the peninsula was once again deadlocked.
Therefore, when Moon Jae-in is about to step down and the new South Korean president is about to take office, the situation on the Korean Peninsula has once again attracted attention.
According to Yonhap News Agency, the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff reported on February 27 that North Korea launched an unidentified aircraft in the east on the same day, and the South Korean side is analyzing specific data such as range and shooting.
CCTV news reports pointed out that this is North Korea's second test launch after 28 days since the launch of the intermediate-range ballistic missile Hwasong-12 on January 30, and it is also North Korea's eighth test launch this year.
Li Zong believes that the change of the South Korean president may bring about new changes in the situation on the Korean peninsula, because there are obvious differences in the North Korea policies of the two main candidates.
On the issue of North Korea, Lee Jae-myung emphasized dialogue and containment, that is, while strengthening South Korea's national defense forces and developing new weapons to deal with North Korea's military "provocation", he should seek dialogue with North Korea and seek breakthroughs in dialogue.
"In short, Lee Jae-myung's policy toward North Korea will basically continue Moon Jae-in's policy, seeking to break the deadlock, promote North Korea-US denuclearization negotiations, and maintain peace and stability on the Korean peninsula."
And if Yin Xiyue comes to power, South Korea's attitude towards North Korea may become very tough.
Specifically, South Korea may strengthen US-ROK military exercises, increase pressure on North Korea, and demand North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons.
"If so, the Korean peninsula will enter a new round of tensions."
Zhan Debin, director of the Center for Korean Peninsula Studies at Shanghai University of International Business and Economics, pointed out to a reporter from the Beijing News that the new South Korean government will also be constrained by the United States on the issue of North Korea.
He said that if Lee Jae-myung emphasized more autonomy in foreign strategy and adhered to a balanced foreign policy, the US would put more pressure on South Korea because the US hopes to coordinate the forces of its allies to achieve its foreign strategic goals.
"Lee Jae-myung's demand for greater autonomy and pressure from the United States collide, and the conflict between South Korea and the United States may increase."
"If Yin Xiyue came to power, he would deal with the DPRK issue within the framework of the South Korea-US alliance, so he might be tougher on the DPRK and lead to more tension between the DPRK and the ROK. And the DPRK will also react to this, such as conducting armed demonstrations. In this case, the confrontation on the entire peninsula will become more and more solidified, which is not conducive to the peace and stability of the peninsula in the future.”
However, no matter who takes office, after the South Korean general election, the uncertainty of the situation on the Korean Peninsula will gradually decrease, and the situation on the peninsula will enter a new situation.
Li Zong pointed out that negotiations on the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula have been deadlocked since 2019, but with the US Biden administration coming to power in 2021, the DPRK Eighth National Congress confirming a new five-year plan, and a new South Korean government coming to power, the situation on the peninsula may be affected. The uncertainties of the direction are basically determined.
"This also means that whether it is Lee Jae-myeong, which tends to ease after taking power, or Yin Xiyue's tension after taking power, the interaction pattern of the situation on the Korean peninsula will gradually stabilize and enter a new cycle. During this period, opportunities and challenges coexist. With the efforts of all parties, it is possible to promote the settlement of the peninsula issue."
How will China-South Korea relations go in the future?
2022 marks the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and South Korea and is also the "Year of China-South Korea Cultural Exchange".
How the new government will handle relations with China has raised concerns.
Li Zong analyzed that whether China-South Korea relations will be affected is closely related to who is elected as the next South Korean president.
The Moon Jae-in government insists on "strategic ambiguity" and seeks a balance between China and the United States.
As Moon Jae-in's "successor", Lee Jae-myung said in November last year that he would carry out balanced diplomacy between China and the United States, and enhance the strategic cooperative relationship between South Korea and China while consolidating and developing the South Korea-US alliance.
On February 23 this year, Lee Jae-ming published a signed article in the American foreign policy journal "Foreign Affairs", expounding his China policy again.
He said that China is South Korea's largest trading partner, and the trade volume between South Korea and China accounts for a quarter of South Korea's total trade.
In contrast, Yin Xiyue has adopted a clearly pro-American policy.
During the campaign, Yin Xiyue repeatedly made remarks related to China, saying that the Moon Jae-in government's friendly policy toward China disgusted the Korean people and that young Koreans were generally "disgusted with China", which aroused heated public opinion.
He also proposed to increase the purchase of the US THAAD anti-missile system, strengthen the US-Japan-South Korea alliance, and join the Five Eyes alliance and the US-Japan-India-Australia "Quad Security Dialogue" mechanism (Quad) in the future.
After the THAAD turmoil in 2017, the Moon Jae-in administration made commitments not to increase the deployment of THAAD, not to participate in the US-led global missile defense system, and not to establish a trilateral military alliance involving Japan.
Although there are differences in Li Zaiming and Yin Xiyue's China policies, Li Zong believes that, from the perspective of exchanges in the past 30 years, China-ROK relations are generally rational and pragmatic, so even if bilateral relations face new challenges, they will not deteriorated to a trough.
Moon Jae-in previously spoke highly of the development of China-ROK relations over the past 30 years and expressed his expectations for the future development of China-ROK relations.
According to Xinhua News Agency's report on February 16, Moon Jae-in pointed out in an interview with Xinhua News Agency and other media, "South Korea-China relations have achieved impressive development results in the past 30 years. Looking forward to the next 30 years from a future-oriented perspective, the two sides will A more mature and stable relationship should be established, economic cooperation should be further strengthened, and joint efforts should be made so that the people of both countries can benefit from it."
Zheng Jiyong analyzed that there are two main risk factors for the development of China-ROK relations in the future. One is whether South Korea will additionally deploy THAAD and other systems with strategic threats, which will lead to problems in military security cooperation between China and South Korea; Whether to establish a mechanism to eliminate misunderstandings and disputes between the two countries in terms of cultural history.
Regarding the choice of South Korea between China and the United States, Zheng Jiyong said that the United States hopes to win over South Korea when implementing its Indo-Pacific strategy and form a tripartite alliance between the United States, Japan and South Korea. Therefore, the United States does not want to see South Korea adopt "strategic ambiguity" between China and the United States.
"However, for South Korea, whether in terms of economic and trade cooperation or promoting the settlement of the Korean Peninsula issue and other political and security issues, it cannot completely ignore China's influence. Therefore, on issues involving South Korea's major interests, even in the face of Under the pressure from the US, South Korea will also make a statement more cautiously.”
Li Zong also believes that Yin Xiyue's foreign policy is based on the Korea-US alliance. Therefore, if he takes office, he may adopt a tougher policy toward China, which will have an impact on China-ROK and China-US relations.
"But in the long run, even if Yin Xiyue is elected, China-South Korea economic and trade cooperation will still be an important factor for the South Korean government to consider its China policy, and he needs to find a balance between security and economy. Therefore, after the test of time, it may still be the case. will turn to pragmatic diplomacy.”
Beijing News reporter Xie Lian