The Baltics live in the shadow of the threat of war from Russia with borders and history.

But the countries also still have strong economic ties with Russia.

Estonia Latvia and Lithuania are the countries in Europe with the largest exports to Russia.

A source of income that now risks freezing inside.

- Yes, it is clear that the companies and individuals involved in that trade will see their companies decrease in value, says Torbjörn Becker, head of the Institute of Economic Research, SITE, at Handels in Stockholm.

He also does not rule out that bankruptcies may accelerate.

Swedish banks dominate the region

Bankruptcy is something that directly affects banks.

Today, the Swedish banks Swedbank and SEB together account for 63 percent of the Baltic banking system's total assets according to the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority.

Banks whose dominance in the region about 15 years ago, when the financial crisis raged, was spreading to Sweden.

- The banks have made big changes since the big financial crisis when the Baltics were very vulnerable.

Then de facto was about to collapse.

Not only the banks but also the countries, says Erik Thedéen, head of the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority, who thinks that the Swedish banks are now more well-run.

Russia's dependence on the Baltics has decreased.

But if you look at the total trade (imports and exports) with Russia per capita in the Baltics, it is between 11,000 and 23,000 kronor, depending on the country, for children as well as adults.

This can be compared with Sweden's SEK 3,000 (in 2020).

Swedbank largest

The largest bank in the Baltics is Swedbank.

The bank responds in writing to SVT: "In these troubled times, Swedbank is strong".

The competitor, SEB, also downplays the risks.

- We have good order and find out which customers we do banking business with in the Baltics, says Frank Hojem who is head of communications at SEB.

But financial aid to the Baltics can not be ruled out, says Torbjörn Becker at Handels:

- We are part of the EU, and the Baltics are across the Baltic Sea, so it is in our interest to help as best we can.