[Details] What is President Putin's speculation? Analysis by Ishikawa commentator

It's been over a week since Russia invaded Ukraine.

We interviewed Russia for many years since the former Soviet era, and asked Mr. Kazuhiro Ishikawa, a commentator who is familiar with President Putin, to analyze President Putin's thoughts and future prospects.

1 Miscalculation?

2 The keyword of invisible arbitrator

has emerged.

Did you anticipate this invasion in the first place?

To be honest, I thought it might happen, but I said it wasn't possible.

I'm shocked.

I said in a public opinion on January 27, "Unfortunately, if President Putin moves based on the idea of ​​All-Russianism, the risk of a full-scale invasion cannot be ruled out."

"Even in the eastern part, which has close ties to Russia, Russian troops will face fierce resistance and Western countries will also be subject to severe economic sanctions. The invasion will deepen Russia's international isolation and become a long-term swamp war like Afghanistan. There is a possibility. "

However, I thought and hoped that President Putin would not take a big risk to make a full-scale invasion.

The situation after the invasion is as I pointed out at that time, but on the contrary, the leader of the nuclear power is objectively wondering what kind of situation analysis President Putin decided on the military invasion. It's scary now that I may not be able to judge the situation.

How do you analyze President Putin's speculation?

I think that Putin's initial aim was to settle early.

By this time, he may have already taken control of the capital Kyiv and invited his ministers, including President Zelensky of Ukraine, to the Kremlin in Moscow to conclude negotiations in favor of Russia.

I remembered that the Soviet Union at that time crushed the "Prague Spring" in 1968 by force.

Maybe I was thinking about the same thing this time as well.

It is a method to destroy the democratization of other countries by armed intervention.

By the way, "Prague Spring" is the democratization movement that took place in 1968 in Prague, the capital of Czechoslovakia at that time, which was a socialist ally of the Soviet Union.

The Soviet Union, along with other Eastern European countries, intervened in Czechoslovakia, cracked down on many who resisted, took the reformist leaders such as Dubček to Moscow, and abandoned the reforms in the Kremlin. Was signed to.

It's been a week since the invasion?

In that sense, it is highly likely that Putin's original aim and speculation was missed.

One of the factors is the unexpected resistance of the Ukrainian people.

President Putin calls Ukraine a "brother state" and states in his July paper that Russia and Ukrainians are of the same ethnic group.

The Ukrainian side may have thought that it was a similar feeling.

Especially in the eastern region, you might even have thought that it would be welcomed, as it was when the Crimean was annexed in 2014.

How does Ukraine see Russia?

On the other hand, Ukraine seems to have lost such “brotherhood”.

In the last 30 years since the Soviet Union collapsed, the initially ambiguous Ukrainian consciousness was created.

After the countries that made up the Soviet Union became independent, each country proceeded with the process of ensuring its own vague identity in each country.

It can be said to be the process of becoming a nation-state.

From the huge empire of the Soviet Union to one ordinary nation-state.

It's not easy.

Ironically, the more Russia tries to exert its influence on Ukraine, the stronger that Ukrainian consciousness may be.

In fact, this can be seen in the criticisms and fierce opposition of Ukrainians to Russia after the invasion of Russia.

Putin may also have dismissed President Zelensky as a comedian-born, inexperienced president.

However, President Zelensky has succeeded in gaining the support of the international community and the public by taking advantage of his courage and the ability to communicate from a comedian.

His approval rating is now over 90%.

What is Putin afraid of?

It's been a long time.

Like when the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan, which contributed to its collapse.

In the invasion of Afghanistan, the former Soviet Union faced fierce resistance and the war situation became swamped.

As the number of people killed in the war continued to increase, the people began to question the cause of the war, and it is said that the high cost of the war put pressure on national finances and was one of the causes of the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Again, if Ukraine's fierce resistance and the rigorous sanctions of the international community continue for a long time, the Putin administration itself could be jeopardized.

What is President Zelensky's distress?

President Zelensky is calling on the people to fight thoroughly.

But how much responsibility and pressure is on the shoulders of this young leader?

A thorough fight will lead to the death of the people and young people.

The United States also recognizes the military superiority of the Russian army.

Continue the battle of justice against the invaders.

Fight to protect freedom and democracy.

There is also that way.

However, if this condition lasts for three, four, or five years, people and the city may be completely destroyed.

It's too costly.

There will be deep distress, whether it is a thorough fight or some kind of compromise.

The G7, including Japan, will have to support President Zelensky in all cases.

Another concern is that the situation will escalate.

For example, even in World War I, the trigger was the Sarajevo incident in June 1914, which escalated to World War I.

At first, no one would have expected such a great war.

After the invasion of Ukraine, President Putin flickers "nuclear cards", which is also very dangerous.

How to prevent escalation?

The biggest concern is that I can't read what President Putin is thinking.

You must convince President Putin to stop the war.

Ukraine will have no choice but to fight if he continues the false reckless assault.

However, in order to discourage President Putin, the window for dialogue with him must not be closed.

You need a brake, a coordinator, and an arbitrator.

When Russia invaded Georgia in 2008, then French President Nicolas Sarkozy played such a role, and when in 2014, German Chancellor Angela Merkel played such a role.

This time around, I'm also worried that we won't see such EU leaders.

I hope there is some kind of negotiation channel between the United States and Russia.

Perhaps CIA Director Burns, who has the most experience with Russia, is in charge of the back channel, but this is wishful thinking.

What will happen to Putin's system?

President Putin is a populist who has a very high ability to feel what the people want and think.

When he took office in 2000, he advocated "stability."

Tired of change, the Russian people supported Putin.

He is also a factor in which he has consistently received high support since then.

However, I feel that there has been a gap in the past few years.

He returned to the presidency in 2012 and then temporarily gained approval for the Crimean annexation, but at the time of the 2018 presidential election, he did not feel his former enthusiastic support.

As a result, it was selected, but it seems to be a negative support.

Putin cannot show change, even though the people want stability and some change.

Stability has become stagnant.

There is a possibility that the people may have decided to invade Ukraine without noticing the gap with the people without showing the prospect of doing this in the next world.

Among the Russian people, even among those who supported Putin, the simple question "Why war with his brother Ukraine" is spreading in this war.

Maybe it's the beginning of the end of Putin's regime.