(International Observation) South Korea's presidential election has entered an "unpredictable period" and "the most stalemate election situation" adds new variables

　　China News Agency, Seoul, March 3rd, title: South Korea's presidential election has entered an "unpredictable period" and "the most stalemate election" adds new variables

　　Author Liu Xu Liu Jingni

　　On the 3rd local time, there are only 6 days left until the official polling day of the South Korean presidential election. From that day to 19:30 local time on the 9th, the Central Election Management Commission of South Korea will prohibit the publication of election-related poll results, as well as citing polls conducted after the 3rd. The poll results are reported, and the general election has entered a so-called "unpredictable period".

　　On the same day, the presidential candidate of the National Power Party, the largest opposition party in South Korea, Yin Xiyue, and the candidate of the Nationalist Party, An Zhexiu, announced that the candidates of the two parties will be unified, adding another big variable to the already stalemate election. The sky is likened to "the foggy game upgraded again".

The simplification of the opposition party "brings back to life"

　　At 8:00 local time on the 3rd, Yin Xiyue and An Zhexiu held a joint press conference to announce the unity of the candidates of the two parties.

Ahn Zhexiu announced his resignation and will support Yin Xiyue in the election.

　　The simplification process of the two candidates Yin and An can be described as "twisted and twisted".

On February 13, local time, An Zhexiu proposed to Yin Xiyue the idea of ​​promoting the unification process through public opinion polls when completing the registration of candidates. However, due to differences between the two parties on the method of candidate selection, Anzhexiu announced on the 20th that it would abandon the cooperation proposal. , adding that he will "stick to his own path".

In the TV debate on February 25, An Zhexiu bluntly stated that "it is over" on the topic of simplification of the opposition party, but Yin Fang said that "it is still working hard".

On the morning of the 27th, Yin Xiyue said that he would cancel the original event plan on the day and discuss with An Zhexiu the plan of jointly promoting a single candidate in the afternoon of the same day.

Then, An Zhexiu refuted Yin Xiyue's claim of negotiating a single candidate, and said that the opposition camp could not reach an agreement on simplification.

　　When the outside world believed that Yin and An's cooperation plan had been "bankrupt", the two suddenly announced that they would achieve simplification and jointly campaign, which triggered further predictions by public opinion on the direction of the election.

Korean media generally analyzed that An Zhexiu’s poll approval rate has always been at the 9% level, and he has obtained a high middle-class approval rate. He also has medical and scientific experience. Therefore, after he changes the electoral trend, the general election structure will be larger. change.

　　Judging from the reactions of the two parties after the unification, the successful implementation of unification greatly encouraged the opposition parties, saying that "the preparations for achieving electoral victory have been completed."

The ruling party claimed that the two parties after the simplification cooperated on the surface, but the internal relationship was complicated. Judging from the reactions of the supporters of the candidates after the simplification, most of Yin Xiyue's supporters welcomed it, while most of An Zhexiu's supporters expressed that Disappointed, calling it a "unity without reason and basis" and fighting for Angolan supporters who have voted overseas.

　　In this regard, YTN TV station analyzed that because the size of the simplification effect can no longer be tested through public opinion polls in the "unpredictable period".

At present, thanks to the addition of An Zhexiu, Yin Xiyue has a slight advantage.

In the later stage, it is still unknown whether Lee Jae-myung, the candidate of the ruling party's common Democratic Party, will win the support of the justice party's candidate, Shen Sang-sang.

On the other hand, the size of the impact of this simplification may also be limited by its time delay (after the February 28 ballot printing day).

Cohesion and turnout may be the key to breaking the game

　　For a long time, Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Sek-yue, two popular candidates for the South Korean presidential election, have been evenly matched in their approval ratings, and so far no "front runners" have appeared, which is extremely rare in previous South Korean general elections.

Yonhap News Agency reported on the 3rd that various polling agencies announced the results of the next president’s popularity before the 2nd. Although the specific figures are different, the gap between the approval ratings of Li Zaiming and Yin Xiyue is within the margin of error, which is indistinguishable. .

　　Lee Kang-yoon, director of the Korea Social Opinion Institute (KSOI), said recently that the outcome of previous general elections has been determined at this time, and the only uncertainty is how big a gap will be won.

But this time the situation is inconclusive, and each expert has many different opinions.

Zheng Hanwei, a special committee member of Korea Research, also said that the gap in the approval ratings of the candidates from the two major parties has always been within the margin of error and is difficult to predict.

It is impossible to say which candidate is ahead, and there are still variables even two to three days before polling day.

　　Analysts believe that at present, the general election has entered a sprint period, the policy propositions of each candidate are basically clear, and there are not many "cards" to play, and cohesion and voter turnout may become the final weight.

　　According to the "Hankyoreh", the general director of the election policy committee of the Democratic Party, Woo Sang-ho, said in a guest broadcast on MBC radio on the 2nd that the fierce competition between the two sides may continue until the polling day.

The winner will win by a narrow margin of 1%-2%, and the cohesion of the candidate's camp will be the decisive factor.

In the remaining time, the Common Democratic Party will conduct intensive advocacy for women voters in their 20s and 30s who have not yet made a decision, and implement the strategy of "integrated government" and "integrated government".

　　Kim Jae-won, the top member of the National Power Party, said the remaining variable was "turnout" and said it would win support from the Conservative Party, which has a higher turnout, on the basis of catering to the middle class.

In addition, Park Sang-byung, a professor at the Institute of Political Studies at Inha University, also said that with both Lee and Yoon having over 40 percent support, the final turnout rate will be an extremely important variable.

　　The opinion of Quan Ningshi, head of the National Power Party's election strategy department, may sum up the current state of the two major candidate camps: When running a marathon, even if you always lead, you can't win if you can't hold the last 100 meters.

"We can't forget that we are sprinting to the finish line. The outcome depends on the final week." (End)