(Finance and Economics) Russia and Europe mutually issue "no-fly orders", what is the impact of international shipping?
China News Agency, Beijing, March 4th, question: Russia and Europe mutually issue a "no-fly order", what is the impact on international shipping?
Author Liu Liang Liu Wenwen
The scope of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to expand.
Following the financial sanctions, many European countries imposed a "no-fly order" on Russia.
As a countermeasure, Russia has also announced that it will implement a "no-fly" in the airspace of many European countries.
The mutual "no-fly order" between Russia and Europe means that the fire of war between Russia and Ukraine has burned from the financial field to the aviation field.
The situation spreads
With the development of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the European Union has announced the closure of airspace to Russian aircraft, involving Russian-owned, Russian-registered and Russian-controlled aircraft, as well as private aircraft.
In addition to the EU, the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom and other countries have also joined the "no-fly" camp against Russia.
For the joint "no-fly" sanctions of Europe and the United States, Russia is not showing weakness.
In response, Russia decided to impose restrictions on flights operated by airlines in a total of 36 countries, including Canada and many European countries.
Affected by the "no-fly order", many European international airlines such as Germany's Lufthansa and KLM have announced the temporary suspension of flights through Russian airspace. Major US airlines such as Delta Air Lines and American Airlines have also suspended flights over Russian airspace. flight.
No "winner" under "no-fly order"
The mutual "no-fly order" between Russia and Europe means that Aeroflot's westbound flights are subject to extensive restrictions.
At the same time, international routes between many European countries and Asia (especially Northeast Asia) are expected to be affected.
Qi Qi, associate professor of Guangzhou Civil Aviation Vocational and Technical College, pointed out in an interview with China News Agency that Russia has a high geographical latitude and a land area spanning the Eurasian continent. It has the advantages of short flight distance and high economy on flights connecting Europe and Asia. , its airspace has thus become an important air corridor for flights between Eurasia.
The "no-fly" in Russian airspace means that the relevant European countries have to reconsider the issue of crossing airspace and air rights.
For Russia, the impact is not small.
According to foreign media reports, most of the daily flights from Europe to Asia pass through Russian airspace. Based on its geographical airspace advantage, Russia can charge international airlines hundreds of millions of dollars in overflight fees every year.
Russia's implementation of a "no-fly" in the airspace of many European countries means that this considerable income may be affected.
How will international shipping be affected?
At present, the "no-fly order" between Russia and Europe has spread to many regional routes.
Many European international airlines had to suspend flights to and from countries in Northeast Asia because they could not avoid the flight plan in Russian airspace for the time being, and tried to open up new flight routes.
In Qi Qi's view, if most flights in Europe and Northeast Asia change their routes, the detour time and aviation fuel costs will increase.
These will ultimately have an impact on passenger travel and airline operating costs.
The relevant person in charge of European Finnair also admitted that its long-distance business mainly relies on Russian airspace. Affected by the "no-fly order", the airline has cancelled passenger and cargo flights to East Asia, and some flights to Asia. It will continue to operate out of Russian airspace.
But bypassing Russian airspace means extending flight times to Asia and making flights to Asia economically unsustainable and uncompetitive.
Although the impact of the mutual ban on flights between Russia and Europe on international airlines is beginning to show, Qi Qi pointed out that in the short term, compared with the passenger market, the impact of the ban on the cargo market will be more significant, because currently affected by the epidemic, many Asian countries have Demand for passenger flights remains limited.
However, as far as the freight market is concerned, the recovery of the global economy is accelerating, and countries have great demand for air capacity. Under the circumstance of "no flight", international freight is blocked or further affects the smooth flow of the global supply chain.
Will China Shipping be affected?
At present, the "no-fly order" between Russia and Europe is not expected to have a direct impact on Chinese flights.
Qi Qi said that the aviation field is bilateral.
The mutual no-fly between the two countries will not affect the third country.
This also means that the China-Europe routes operated by Chinese airlines will not be affected by the "no-fly" airspace, and can still fly to Europe via Russian airspace.
At the same time, due to the influence of aviation policy, the frequency and density of China-Europe routes are not large, and the impact is expected to be relatively limited.
Cui Hongjian, director of the European Institute of the China Institute of International Studies, also said in an interview with China News Agency that if China's international flights are at full capacity, the aviation ban may cause airline costs to rise, including energy prices. potential impact, etc.
"But considering that China's international flights are currently in a state of abnormality, the first thing that China's aviation industry has to face is the challenge of the epidemic, so the above situation is not prominent, and the rise in energy prices and flight bans in the short term will not have a direct impact on China's aviation industry for the time being. "Cui Hongjian said.
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