China, which is rapidly strengthening its armaments, is embarking on reform of the Chinese army, which is said to be "the largest since its founding" under President Xi Jinping.
What is the content and aim of military reform?
And what kind of impact could it have on the security environment in Asia, including Japan?
I will explain in detail based on interviews with experts who analyze the trends of the Chinese military.
What is the Chinese army?
The Chinese army is called the "People's Liberation Army" and its origin dates back to before the founding of the country.
In the Communist Party administration, which was established by winning the civil war with the Kuomintang, the PLA is praised as a "meritor of the founding of the country", and Mao Zedong is so special that he leaves behind the words "the administration is born from the muzzle".
It is more of a "Communist Party army" than a "national army" and is led by the party's Central Military Commission (top is President Xi).
The PLA has been increasing defense spending.
According to the Ministry of Defense, from 1989 to 2015, it continued to increase at a pace of more than 10% over the previous year almost every year.
Although the growth rate has been in the single digit range since 2016, defense spending in 2009 has reached about 1,355.3 billion yuan (about 22 trillion yen in Japanese yen), which is 6.8% higher than the previous year.
This is about four times Japan's defense spending, the second highest in the world after the United States.
As China's defense spending has not been disclosed in detail, there are deep-rooted criticisms from each country for its lack of transparency.
What is the military reform going on in China?
According to Yasuyuki Sugiura, senior researcher at the National Institute for Defense Studies, who is familiar with the Chinese military, the reform is a structural reform that puts a scalpel into the "army-centric" constitution that persists in the military.
Since it contributed to the victory of the civil war in mainland China, there is a strong awareness that "the Army is the one who contributed to the founding of the country", and even after the Navy and the Air Force were founded, the constitution of "army bias" remains persistent. I've been.
The reforms began shortly after President Xi launched the leadership in 2012.
At that time, President Xi said, "I will abandon the'continental army'ism."
Why change the army's emphasis?
The biggest problem with "army bias" is that "unless you have an equal relationship with the Navy and the Air Force, the integration of the entire army will not proceed well," Sugiura points out.
For the PLA, the military focus has now shifted from defending mainland China to sea, airspace, and space, including securing sea lanes essential for economic growth and those with the United States and Taiwan in mind.
Army-centric thinking can make effective operations difficult.
Why is it called the "largest reform since the founding of the country"?
In fact, the need for reforms, including restructuring, has often been pointed out in an attempt to break away from the "army-heavy" constitution, but since the army's opposition was expected, successive leaders began to make full-scale efforts. I wasn't able to.
That is why it is said that the current reforms under President Xi are the largest since the country was founded.
Specifically, what kind of military reforms are you promoting?
The following are examples.
First, we dismantled an organization called the "4 General Staff", such as the General Staff Department and the General Political Department, which were dominated by Army graduates and had a great influence.
It is said that this reduced the influence of the Army and strengthened the authority of President Xi to take direct command of the army.
In addition, the army-heavy "7 military regions" were abolished and reorganized into "5 military regions" in the north, south, east and west and in the center.
In addition to the fact that the services such as land, sea, and air have been positioned more equally, the location of the previously ambiguous operational command and administrative management authority has been clarified, and the chain of command has been made clearer.
Was there any Army resistance to the reforms?
It is not clear how much resistance there was inside the Army, but President Xi blamed the top two former Army uniforms for serious discipline between 2014 and 2015. I lost my leg.
It seems that the aim was to restrain the Army and suppress the resistance to reform.
Reforms may not have been possible without President Xi, who has suppressed resistance and strengthened his power under the banner of eradicating corruption.
What is the aim of reforming?
Senior Researcher Sugiura points out that the Chinese military is trying to improve what is called "joint operational capabilities" by revising the army's emphasis.
Joint operational capability generally means that land, sea, and air units do not operate individually, but integrate their respective forces under one headquarters and operate them in an integrated manner. , The idea is to maximize the effectiveness of the operation.
In the case of China, it is characterized by having a wider range of joint operational capabilities, including not only land, sea, and air, but also rockets, cyber, and units that handle psychological warfare.
This joint operational capability has already been advocated since President Hu Jintao's predecessor, but the drastic reforms necessary to realize it have not been made.
In terms of taking that step, President Xi's reform "has become a major turning point for the Chinese military," points out Senior Researcher Sugiura.
Does the Chinese Army have "joint operational capabilities"?
According to Senior Researcher Sugiura, it is believed that he has already acquired some level of joint operational capabilities.
However, he points out that there are still some issues left in terms of operations.
Advanced technology is required to carry out joint operations by different services such as land, sea, and air, but it takes time to develop human resources with such technology, so it cannot be resolved in a short period of time.
Also, the consciousness of military executives and soldiers cannot be changed so easily, and if the Army-centered thinking persists, the consciousness for joint operations will be weakened.
Another issue is how much practical training can be done.
Can the security environment in Asia change?
Senior Researcher Sugiura said, "China is rushing to acquire joint operational capabilities because of the unification of Taiwan in mind," and it is thought that it will affect the security environment surrounding Japan. Point out.
While China aims for a peaceful unification of Taiwan, it has shown its willingness to use force if it takes actions that it thinks it has crossed the line, such as Taiwan's declaration of independence.
If China embarks on unification by force, it is expected that US troops will intervene to prevent this.
If that happens, it has been pointed out that Japan, an ally of the United States, may not be irrelevant.
For this reason, Senior Researcher Sugiura said, "China's enhancement of joint operations capabilities may affect Japan's security, especially from the perspective of the Taiwan Crisis."
Does China have the ability to unify Taiwan by force?
Senior Researcher Sugiura is already capable of conducting "initial stage" operations to unify Taiwan, such as cyber attacks on Taiwan's military and social infrastructure, missile attacks aimed at threatening, and operations by special forces. I have it. "
However, it is unlikely that Taiwan will succumb to China with just the initial attack, and a large-scale landing operation will be required.
It seems that China does not yet have the joint operational capabilities to achieve that.
One of the reasons is lack of exercises.
In order to actually invade Taiwan, it is indispensable to cooperate with each service including land, sea, and air, and to carry out large-scale exercises that transcend the boundaries of the five military regions.
However, few announcements have been made that such large-scale exercises have taken place.
Also, the Chinese military has no experience in large-scale combat since the 1980s.
It is different from the US military, which has experienced military operations in Afghanistan and the Iraq War.
Senior Researcher Sugiura believes that China's invasion of Taiwan is too risky for China in a situation where US intervention is expected.
Is it possible that China will surpass the United States in military power?
President Xi has often issued orders to "create an army that can fight and win," and has set the goal of becoming a "world-class army" by 2049 in the middle of this century.
Senior Researcher Sugiura pointed out that expressions such as "fight and win" and "world-class" are considered to be American-conscious, and in the future they aim to be an army that is on par with and surpasses the United States. increase.
However, the real aim is to make the United States aware of the strength of China's military power, to remind us of the high cost of intervening in the Taiwan issue, and to "win without fighting". I'm wondering if there is any.
Where is the reform of the Chinese military?
The Chinese military is expected to continue to deepen its joint operations capabilities.
Senior Researcher Sugiura points out the use of AI = artificial intelligence as something of particular note.
AI is used for weapons such as tanks and drones to enable weapons to autonomously search for and attack targets.
Senior Researcher Sugiura believes that China is not limited to that, and that AI is aiming to incorporate AI into the chain of command system, analyze the situation on the battlefield, deploy troops, and plan optimal operations. increase.
As the introduction progresses, the speed from the launch of a large-scale joint operation concept to its implementation will increase dramatically, and it will be possible to realize advanced operations that are different from the conventional ones. ..
Although the use of AI by the Chinese military is currently considered to be in its early stages, it is also expected that it will not take much time to further improve or improve the technology.
The United States, which is watching China's military trends, also says that one of the areas of greatest caution is AI.
It is necessary to continue to pay close attention to the reform of the Chinese military, which will lead to a major change in the concept of security.