"SD swing in the NATO issue puts heavy pressure on S"

Although Russia wants to prevent both Sweden and Finland from joining NATO, it seems that the war in Ukraine is affecting public opinion in both countries in the exact opposite direction.

For both Finland and Sweden, public opinion is now turning in an increasingly NATO-friendly direction.

Novus' survey presented by SVT shows that 49 percent of Swedes want Sweden to join NATO.

This is an increase of as much as 12 percentage points since January and an increase of 8 percentage points in the last week.

Photo: SVT

Historically large support

Never before has Novus measured such great support for Swedish NATO membership.

At the same time, the proportion who say no to a Swedish NATO membership has decreased to 27 percent.

The Russian attack on Ukraine and the anxiety this creates among Swedish voters is an important explanation, as is NATO's role as a counterforce against Russia.

A long period of discussion about Sweden's defense capability will probably also contribute to the growing support for NATO.

And this will of course affect the Swedish debate.

There are already signals from the Sweden Democrats that the party is prepared to change its position on the issue.

According to SD, the party is now opening for a NATO membership.

The issue has been addressed by SD's party leadership and a concrete proposal will be presented shortly, SVT experiences.

Such a turnaround has the support of the party's sympathizers.

Of the SD voters, 57 percent want to see a NATO membership, according to Novus.

SD turn gives majority for NATO application

If the Sweden Democrats turn on the issue, a majority will also arise in Sweden's Riksdag for NATO membership.

The demand is already being pushed by the Moderates, Liberals, Christian Democrats and the Center Party.

Such a majority would put heavy pressure on the Social Democrats, who have so far said no to NATO membership.

The party wants Sweden to continue to be non-aligned at the same time as cooperation with NATO and other countries is deepened.

Advocates of NATO believe that cooperation is not enough, only full membership provides so-called defense guarantees.

The Social Democrats' stance on the NATO issue is central to Swedish membership.

A decision of this kind presupposes a broad anchoring on both sides of the traditional block boundary.

As long as the Social Democrats say no, it can be difficult for Sweden to join.

However, continued growing public support for Swedish membership may lead to the Social Democrats changing their position on the issue.

Several S-debaters have already opened up for a reassessment of the issue so charged within the party.

Finland's actions important

Public opinion in Finland is also affected by the Russian war of aggression.

A survey presented by Yle this week shows that for the first time there is now a majority in the population for a NATO membership, 53 percent.

Prime Minister Sanna Marin has said that the issue is now being evaluated, but also made it clear that no quick accession is relevant.

Finland's actions are important for Sweden, and vice versa.

It is difficult to see a situation where one of the two countries joins but not the other.

It is about the geographical location of the countries, but also about the increasingly extensive defense cooperation.

At the same time, the ongoing war in Ukraine connects Sweden and Finland ever closer to NATO.

The countries are increasingly involved in NATO's planning and operations.

It can also affect the view of NATO among Swedish voters, not least in a situation where Russia is perceived as a growing threat.