Russia's war on Ukraine 'disastrous so far'

American experts said that the Russian war on Ukraine was a huge strategic and tactical mistake, characterized by shortages of food and fuel, the proliferation of abandoned armored vehicles, and the losses of Russian aircraft and forces.

But experts assumed that these failures would lead a frustrated Moscow to unleash all its power and indiscriminately destroy swathes of Ukraine.

"We had no weapons and were not aggressive. We showed that we are working to secure the city and trying to deal with the consequences of the invasion," he wrote in a Facebook message.

According to "AFP", American specialists who have studied the Russian army for years say they were surprised by the mismanagement of the Russian military campaign, which apparently lost hundreds of armored vehicles, while the Ukrainians managed to prevent the Kremlin's air force from controlling the air.

Scott Boston, a senior defense analyst at Rand Corp. described the situation: "If you stumble at the door on your way home, you have a problem."

Before the war began, the Pentagon and private experts expected Russian President Vladimir Putin's army to quickly destroy Ukraine's ability to respond, undermine its command and control of the 200,000-strong Ukrainian army, and destroy its missile and air defenses in Kyiv. That's in the early days.

Although there are no reliable estimates of dead, wounded, and captured Russian forces, the numbers appear to be much higher than would be expected in a supposedly "well-managed" invasion.

An analysis published by Foreign Affairs magazine confirmed that leaders such as Russian President Vladimir Putin are more likely to make mistakes in foreign policy, which could mean the beginning of the end for them, noting that his risky attack on Ukraine could mean "the beginning of the end" for Putin.

Michael Vickers, the former US undersecretary of defense for intelligence, said that underestimating the importance of the Ukrainian resistance is a colossal intelligence failure.

An assessment by military experts at the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Center noted the Russians' failure to quickly capture an airfield outside Kyiv.

They said the fighting around the airport likely left it too damaged to be used as planned to enter Kyiv.

Moreover, they said, “the losses of Russian planes and helicopters were surprisingly high and unsustainable,” while they could not destroy the Ukrainian air defenses.

Also surprising was the limited or ineffective proliferation of electronic warfare weapons, which most analysts expected would play an important role in attacking the Ukrainians' ability to communicate.

"Had the Russians been able to isolate the Ukrainian military leaders from those who command them, the Ukrainian Air Force would have had to fight in an uncoordinated manner, making it less lethal and more vulnerable to attack," the Scowcroft report said.

For his part, Boston returned to point out that the Ukrainians continued to use their Turkish Bayraktar aircraft and succeeded in destroying the Russian armor.

Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said the Russians did not appear to coordinate well their large and diverse capabilities or manage the logistics of the war.

"We're seeing early indications that although they have sophisticated weapons capabilities, they are not necessarily fully integrated," he said.

When Russia seized Crimea in 2014, some 400 Russian soldiers were killed during the month-long campaign, the losses of which stirred up Russian public opinion.

"We are seeing abandoned vehicles, and supply problems, not only in fuel but also in food," he added in an interview on Wednesday.

For his part, Boston, who previously participated in high-level war games focused on Russian forces, said there are indications that many of the forces are young and untrained for this type of conflict.

"It also appears that the forces on the ground have no idea what to do during the invasion of Ukraine," he said.

"If you don't know what's going on, you can't adapt," he added.

None of these experts ruled out the Russians ending the war. On the contrary, some predict that Putin's frustration during the early days will unleash the full power of his artillery, missiles, and air power on the Ukrainian population with devastating effect.

In particular, the Scowcroft Center analysis said, "Russia still has the advantages of massive combat power that will eventually lead to the crushing of Ukrainian forces if the war continues."

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