His candidacy certainly left little room for doubt, but still had to be formalized.
It's finally done Thursday, March 3.
By a letter, Emmanuel Macron is now a candidate for his own re-election.
Almost in extremis, less than 24 hours before the final “gong”.
Indeed, the pretenders to the Élysée are required to formalize their candidacy with the Constitutional Council before March 4, at 6 p.m.
Launched on February 24 by Vladimir Putin, the Russian invasion of Ukraine precipitated Emmanuel Macron into intense diplomatic activity.
To the point of having almost eclipsed the French presidential campaign.
The presidency of the Council of the European Union that France has held since January 1, 2022 and for the whole year also gives increased importance to the management of this crisis at the gates of Europe.
A coincidence of the calendar: from his campaign in 2017, the young president had made himself the apostle of a sovereign Europe, and of European defence.
Announced late, and in a context of strong international instability, Emmanuel Macron's candidacy for re-election also comes at the end of a mandate punctuated by crises, among which the Covid-19 pandemic remains topical.
Since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops, the president-candidate has gained several points in the voting intentions, the polls giving him 27-28%, or ten points ahead of his rival far right, Marine Le Pen (RN), who is widening the gap with Valérie Pécresse (LR) and Éric Zemmour (Reconquest!).
For Bruno Cautrès, political scientist, researcher at the CNRS and Cevipof (the Center for Political Research at Sciences-Po) this context allows Emmanuel Macron to present himself as a captain, in the midst of a dangerous global storm.
France 24: The announcement of Emmanuel Macron's candidacy was probably delayed by an overloaded agenda. But for the president now officially a candidate, isn't this Ukrainian diplomatic front the best campaign
?
Bruno Cautrès:
It is certain, in fact, that Emmanuel Macron finds himself in a campaign in which he has undeniable comparative advantages over his political adversaries, both as head of state and via the French presidency of the Council of the European Union.
This crisis responds - in part - to the central question that Emmanuel Macron's candidacy for his own re-election posed: "a second term for what?"
This is a question that arises for any president seeking another term and to which it is usually very difficult to answer.
To the logic of continuity, of “doing the same”, the electorate can oppose the unpopularity of the measures taken.
To the strategy of "I'm going to do it differently", one can object a "so, why didn't you do it before?"
However, the unprecedented European momentum generated by the Ukrainian crisis gives new meaning to one of the pillars of Macron's foreign policy: reinforced European sovereignty in all areas (strategic, military, economic, etc.), a united Europe.
Emmanuel Macron's European positioning in the light of the Ukrainian crisis is therefore perfectly consistent, both with the narrative of the beginnings (during his campaign in 2017) and with his European commitment throughout his mandate.
In this Europe in search of unity and autonomy, Emmanuel Macron is at home, he plays at home.
In his televised speech on Ukraine on March 2, Emmanuel Macron claimed to “hear” our “anxieties”, and to have our “protection” as our only “compass”. Fear undoubtedly pushes humans to cling to what they already know... And so perhaps, in this case to Emmanuel Macron
?
Fear, in fact, does not make you want to change pilots.
If Emmanuel Macron still gave the impression of sailing on sight, and showed idleness in the face of this crisis, this strategy would obviously not work.
But crisis situations inevitably favor a leader in office on one condition, which is that he demonstrates a strong leadership capacity: and this is exactly the image offered by Emmanuel Macron.
This posture is once again reinforced by its functions within the European Union, and the remarks of the President of the European Commission.
Ursula von der Leyen highlights the positive ties she has with the Élysée, and suggests that the French presidency of the EU Council at this time is a healthy coincidence in the calendar for the whole continent.
The Prime Minister, Jean Castex, announced, the same day, the end of the wearing of the compulsory mask in almost all places and the suspension of the vaccination pass from March 14. Will the hoped-for return to a form of “sanitary normality” be enough to offset the dissatisfaction of the French with the erratic management at the start of this pandemic
?
The assessment that the French first made of pandemic management by the executive was indeed very poor at the start of the health crisis (remember the procrastination and failures around the question of wearing a mask).
This assessment, even today, is certainly mixed.
But a rather flattering assessment (improvement of the health situation, significant vaccination coverage, support for the French economy) shows the strategy promoted by Emmanuel Macron from 2021, a posteriori, as the right direction.
This strategy is that of “learn to live with Covid-19”.
An additional element that can reinforce the image that Emmanuel Macron wanted to inspire from 2017: that of the president of a France belonging to the camp of optimism, a France freed from its "sad passions", repeatedly castigated by the French president .
European aura, reinforced international stature, ebb of the pandemic… Could this alignment of the planets exempt Emmanuel Macron from campaigning
?
I hope he will not fall into this pitfall, and do not think he will make such a mistake.
He cannot reasonably approach this election campaign with his hands in his pockets, strong in his international stature.
Emmanuel Macron must answer several questions on the national level, and in particular reflect on the public policies that he proposes to the French.
Yellow Vests, Covid-19… His mandate has been one of continual crises.
What conclusions does he draw from this?
In short, can the lesson be summed up by a “I was right” or on the contrary by a mea culpa, “I have to improve, I have learned from my mistakes and plan to come up with something new”?
The more Emmanuel Macron communicates on fundamental domestic projects such as the redefinition of the French social protection system, the more he will then be able to justify them - if re-elected - as reforms endorsed by the democratic debate.
On the other hand, the more he ignores these elements of domestic policy, the more he runs the risk of being returned to the Elysée on a misunderstanding.
That of a France which would have re-elected him for a reassuring diplomatic stature, but without knowing or approving his project on the national level.
This misunderstanding would come to light, in particular as a result of an easing of the Ukrainian crisis.
The head of state must avoid this electoral misunderstanding, because yes, there will indeed be a "day after the war in Ukraine."
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