According to a Western intelligence report, senior Chinese government officials called on their Russian interlocutors not to invade Ukraine before the end of the Winter Olympics.

The New York Times reported on Thursday, citing senior American sources and a European government official.

The fact is that the Russian President announced the deployment of troops to eastern Ukraine the day after the closing ceremony of the Olympic Games.

Friederike Böge

Political correspondent for China, North Korea and Mongolia.

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According to The New York Times, the intelligence report suggests that the Chinese side "had some direct knowledge of Russia's war plans or intentions."

According to one source, the information does not make it clear whether the two heads of state Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin personally discussed the invasion plans.

The Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post, citing "two sources connected to the White House," reported that Russian officials briefed their Chinese counterparts on February 4, the day of the Winter Games opening ceremony, about plans for a military operation.

On that day, Putin visited Beijing and issued a "Joint Statement" with Xi Jinping, in which the two pledged friendship "without borders" and cooperation "without forbidden areas".

China may have assumed a short march through

The Chinese Foreign Ministry described the reports as "pure fake news".

Spokesman Wang Wenbin said it was a "pathetic" attempt to shift the blame for the war on others and distract attention from one's own actions.

In this context, he once again held NATO indirectly responsible for the war in Ukraine.

The question of who in China knew what and when about an imminent invasion of Ukraine is important for understanding China's calculations in the strategic partnership with Russia.

Some observers had suggested that Putin left Xi in the dark, causing the Chinese leader to sign the "Joint Declaration" without realizing the full consequences.

The intelligence reports make this analysis less likely.

Xi would have deliberately agreed to close ranks with an aggressor, which would indicate a far-reaching strategic realignment of Chinese foreign policy.

At the same time, the reports raise questions

In the meantime, the American government apparently believed that Beijing could have exerted its influence.

In any case, the New York Times reported in an earlier text that Washington had shared its own intelligence analyzes in several talks with Beijing in order to convince the Chinese leadership of the danger of an imminent war and to urge them to influence Moscow before February.

According to the report, however, Beijing appeared to see this as an American attempt to drive a wedge between Russia and China.

Even if there were talks between Moscow and Beijing about war scenarios on February 4, just under three weeks before the invasion, there is much to suggest that China may have assumed a brief march through and may have underestimated the West's reaction.

In addition, if the talks had taken place below the level of heads of state, it would raise the question of whether this information reached Xi.

Like Putin, the Chinese head of state has gathered yes-men around him.

Another question is whether the Foreign Ministry was involved, which made the fatal mistake of not prompting Chinese citizens to leave Ukraine in good time.

However, the current reports also raise the question of what interest the anonymous American sources have in leaking the alleged secret service information to the media.

Voices are growing in Washington calling for China to pay a price for its support of Russia.

The China expert Jude Blanchette from the Center for Strategic and International Studies speaks of a fundamental "change of direction".

Just three weeks ago, Washington was considering how to prevent further rapprochement between Russia and China.

But the view is increasingly gaining ground that China and Russia must be tied together in order to prevent Beijing from evading responsibility.

Blanchette, speaking to correspondents in Beijing, said,

Xi made "one of the biggest foreign policy blunders of his two terms by allying himself with Putin on the eve of the invasion."

Blanchette said he is currently seeing Beijing trying to spread the narrative that the war took them by surprise.

But that would amount to a "catastrophic intelligence failure," which Xi wouldn't look good at either.