(Observation of the Two Sessions) China's economic "construction map" will reveal four hot issues for scholars to look forward to

　　China News Agency, Beijing, March 3rd, title: China's economic "construction map" will produce four hot issues for scholars to look forward to

　　China News Agency reporter Xia Bin

　　How to set the annual GDP target?

What is the overall size of the special bond?

What's next for monetary policy?

How to fully implement the registration system?

　　The National Two Sessions will be held soon, and this year's government work report will also be released, which is related to the "mission book" and "construction drawings" of China's economic development.

Focusing on the economic hotspots that the outside world is concerned about, reporters from China News Agency interviewed experts and scholars from Tsinghua University and gave forward-looking analysis.

Data map: In a manufacturing company, workers are busy on the production line.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Yang Bo

GDP target highlights steady progress

　　In the year of the outbreak, China was the only major economy in the world to achieve positive growth. In the first quarter of last year, it recorded a year-on-year growth rate of 18.3% and then fell quarter by quarter. How should the GDP target for this year be set?

　　Tian Xuan, deputy dean of the PBC School of Finance at Tsinghua University, believes that the global economic recovery has entered a bottleneck stage, with repeated disruptions of the epidemic, turbulent political landscape, rising macro leverage ratios, and a tightening period of international monetary policy.

　　Looking at China, it is also facing greater downward pressure, such as the weakening of the export-driven marginal; insufficient consumption power and slowing market demand; real estate risks and transmission effects, and the pulling effect on the economy is accelerating the diminishing marginal.

　　Tian Xuan said that under the background of the high base effect of the high-speed recovery in 2021 superimposed on various downward pressures and disturbance risks, the primary goal of economic development is to stabilize growth, and various development goals also highlight "seeking progress while maintaining stability."

China's GDP growth target is estimated to be between 5.0% and 5.5%, with increased infrastructure investment, fixed asset investment growth of about 4.5%, manufacturing investment growth dropped to 4.0%, and consumption growth under the policy of stabilizing domestic demand is expected to be 6.0%.

The scale of special bonds is expected to rise sharply

　　"Based on the current trend of China's economy, infrastructure investment will play a positive role in stabilizing the economy," Tian Xuan said.

　　In December last year, the Ministry of Finance of China issued a limit of 1.46 trillion yuan (RMB, the same below) for new special debts in 2022 to local governments in advance. It accounts for more than 60% of the "advance approval" quota.

Tian Xuan said that it is expected that the expected target will be completed ahead of schedule this year, and the scale of special bonds will rise sharply.

　　What areas will the large-scale special debt "benefit"?

Tian Xuan believes that it will mainly invest in major projects and infrastructure investments that are better integrated with major projects during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period.

It mainly includes projects in the fields of new infrastructure, new energy infrastructure, transportation and logistics infrastructure, as well as public infrastructure projects such as medical care, education, affordable housing, agriculture, forestry and water conservancy, social undertakings, and municipal parks that are closely related to residents' lives.

Monetary policy should cooperate with industrial upgrading

　　The latest article by the Monetary Policy Department of the People's Bank of China once again mentioned that it should guide financial institutions to vigorously expand credit.

This statement has appeared several times in official speeches recently.

　　Ju Jiandong, a professor at the PBC School of Finance of Tsinghua University and director of the International Finance and Economics Research Center of the National Institute of Financial Studies, said that monetary policy has indeed become loose since February, and major banks must find good projects to increase loans and promote stable economic development. An important task this year is to have loose economic policies.

　　To whom should the easing policy be "relaxed"?

Ju Jiandong said that after 2018, China began to move towards a period of knowledge-based innovation. The new growth point is the upgrading of high-tech industries, and the expansion of high-tech manufacturing and high-tech service industries represented by innovation.

"It is not enough to issue currency to drive demand, there must be changes in leading industries and upgrades in industrial institutions."

　　To this end, Ju Jiandong suggested that in the current era of knowledge economy, the upgrading of industrial structure is mainly in two aspects, one is high-tech upgrade, and the other is human capital investment.

In other words, the "loose" policy should be given to the above two areas.

Data map: Bank staff counts currency.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Yun

The promotion of the comprehensive registration system still needs to "break through difficulties"

　　The reform of "full implementation of the stock issuance registration system" is expected to be officially implemented this year. What problems should be paid attention to in the process of advancement?

　　Zhang Xiaoyan, deputy dean of the PBC School of Finance, Tsinghua University, believes that the information disclosure of listed companies must be strengthened first. Only with sufficient and comprehensive information disclosure can investors fully price listed companies; in response to illegal acts in information disclosure, regulatory authorities must strengthen Enforce the law and strictly investigate and punish all kinds of fraudulent acts.

　　Secondly, it is necessary to strengthen investor education and effectively protect the legitimate rights and interests of investors; institutional investors should also use their research and information advantages to promote the price discovery of listed companies.

　　Some people worry that under the comprehensive registration system, will there be more companies going public in troubled waters?

Zhang Xiaoyan said that it is necessary to adhere to the principle of marketization, so that the function of survival of the fittest in the capital market can be fully exerted.

The regulatory authorities should not only further provide necessary convenience for the refinancing of listed companies, but also strictly implement the delisting system, and further improve relevant systems such as short-selling and securities lending.

　　"The winners and the fittest complement each other and exert their strengths at the same time, which will play a key role in effectively maintaining the market order after the registration system reform and guarantee the quality of listed companies." Zhang Xiaoyan said.

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