British research institute: Russian-Ukrainian conflict may cause global inflation to rise by 3%, Russian inflation soars to more than 20%

　　China News Agency, Beijing, March 3. London News: A report released by the British National Institute of Economic and Social Research on the 2nd local time predicted that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will cause the global economy to shrink by one percentage point by 2023, a loss of about 1 trillion US dollars.

Global inflation will rise by 3% in 2022, with Russian inflation soaring above 20%.

　　The research institute analyzed in the report "The Economic Cost of the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict" that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has brought further pressure to the world economy already hit by the epidemic.

Europe is the worst affected region as both sides of the conflict are major sources of commodities such as energy and food in Europe.

　　The research house noted that supply issues will slow economic growth and push up prices.

Western inflation will rise further as the risk of a recession increases.

　　Russia and Ukraine export about a quarter of the world's wheat and nearly a fifth of corn and other coarse grains.

The agency expects sanctions and supply disruptions to lead to higher food prices.

Europe is the most affected region, given its reliance on the Russian-Ukrainian region for food supplies.

　　Russia and Ukraine are also important suppliers of commodities including titanium and palladium, and the agency expects "supply chain problems" including the manufacture of cars, smartphones and aircraft to intensify.

　　Russia is one of the world's largest oil producers and energy exporters.

The economic hit from sanctions against Russia will be partly offset by higher gas and oil export prices, the report said.

If sanctions against Russia are further escalated, cutting off Russian gas and oil shipments, the blow to Russia will be "very severe".

But since 40% of the EU's natural gas comes from Russia, escalating sanctions against Russia would also increase the likelihood of a recession in the EU accompanied by a sharp rise in inflation.

　　The report predicts that the conflict will shrink Russia’s GDP by 1.5% this year and more than 2.5% by the end of 2023.

As a result, the UK's GDP growth rate in 2022 will drop by 0.8% to 4.0%, and inflation will reach 7%.

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