How far away the lyrical flights between Beijing and Moscow seem.
In a joint statement published on February 4, Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping then said that the friendship between the two countries was "limitless", not excluding any "area of cooperation".
Since then, Russia has launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the tone has changed.
China now finds itself in a precarious position.
While Europeans and Americans unequivocally condemn Russia's assault on Ukraine and unite to hit the Kremlin with a series of far-reaching sanctions, China's response to its neighbor's military aggression is akin to a delicate balancing act.
Siding with the Russians, Chinese Foreign Ministry officials in a statement on February 23 blamed the tensions around Ukraine on the United States.
Following Moscow's rhetoric, they preferred to call the war in Ukraine a "special military operation" instead of denouncing it as an invasion on the first day of the conflict.
The situation in Ukraine places China in a dilemma.
On the one hand, its leaders are trying to preserve the growing but fragile links with the Russian partner.
On the other hand, this war places the Chinese in contradiction with the principles of non-interference and respect for territorial integrity which dictate their foreign policy - principles which would run counter to Russia's military aggression against its next to.
China's Doublespeak
It is with this in mind that on February 25, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told senior European officials that China "firmly advocates respecting and safeguarding the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all country [...], which also applies to Ukraine".
But at the same time, Wang Yi tempered his remarks by adding that, given "five consecutive rounds of NATO's eastward expansion", "Russia's legitimate security claims must be resolved. appropriately."
Another illustration of its ambiguous position, when it was invited to vote on February 25 on a United Nations Security Council resolution denouncing Russia's invasion of Ukraine, China abstained, leaving Moscow to oppose his veto alone.
In a phone call between Xi and Putin on the same day, the Chinese president did not approve of the assault on Ukraine, but said he was in favor of "Russia and Ukraine resolving this problem through dialogue," Chinese state television reported.
The first trading partner of Ukraine
While Beijing and Moscow have grown closer in recent years, experts believe that this partnership is far from unconditional, with China showing little inclination to show unequivocal support for Russia.
Indeed, Beijing's economic interests remain deeply tied to the West - and even to Ukraine - despite fraying ties and ideological tensions.
China became the EU's biggest trading partner in 2021. In Ukraine, it even overtook Russia in 2019, becoming Kiev's biggest trading partner.
On the Russian side, the effects of international sanctions intended to paralyze the Russian economy are beginning to be felt.
Moscow could therefore turn to China to try to mitigate their impact.
But the country has so far shown no willingness to help Russia evade Western sanctions.
For the Chinese, the risk of losing access to Western markets is too great.
And Chinese state banks have started to restrict the purchase of Russian raw materials, in line with sanctions against Russia.
Instead, China said it would pursue "normal business cooperation" with both Russia and Ukraine.
"China wants to preserve its ties with Moscow, respect its principles and avoid degrading its relations with the United States and the European Union", summarized in Washington Post Bonnie Glaser, director of the Asia program of the German Marshall Fund of the United States .
But the West's coordinated and unprecedented response to Russian aggression could complicate China's balancing act.
China and Russia: similar territorial interests
Moreover, several experts on Sino-Russian relations have noted parallels between the expansionist programs of China and Russia.
This is the case of the desire of the Chinese authorities to achieve "reunification" with Taiwan, by force if necessary.
Thus Ming Jinwei, editor-in-chief of China's state-run XinHua news agency, wrote on his WeChat blog that it is in China's interest to provide even remote support to Russia in the Ukraine crisis. , because Beijing will need the support of Moscow to establish its domination over Taiwan.
Russia has already positioned itself very clearly alongside China on Taiwan.
Sergei Lavrov, the country's foreign minister, said last year that "Russia considers Taiwan to be part of the People's Republic of China."
China scrutinizes Western response in Ukraine
Also, Taiwan is following the development of the situation in Ukraine very closely.
And it is no coincidence that a delegation of former US army and security service executives sent by President Joe Biden visited the island on March 1.
A gesture that reassured the Taiwanese government.
A gesture that China did not appreciate.
A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson called the new US support for Taiwan "futile".
"The Chinese people's will to defend our national sovereignty and territorial integrity is unwavering," Wang Wenbin said during his daily press briefing.
Chinese officials have also used the same terms to express the country's respect for Ukraine's sovereignty.
For Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy, an expert in China's international relations, interviewed by France 24, the Chinese authorities are watching the Western response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine to see how far Westerners can go.
“EU member states are acting with determination, which few expected from a bloc often seen as divided and weak. It is important that Beijing monitors this development, to see how far and how quickly Europeans can and will act in case China changes the status quo with Taiwan."
Taiwanese and Taiwanese Slavs protest against Russia's military invasion of Ukraine in Taipei on February 25, 2022. © AFP
In Taipei, where the war in Ukraine therefore takes on a very particular resonance, for several days, dozens of people showed their support for the Ukrainians.
"The Chinese Communist Party must watch with anxiety the resilience of the Ukrainian people, who have won support and solidarity from the Taiwanese people. This is another reason for China to reconsider its plans for Taiwan," Zsuzsa Anna said. Ferenczy.
Article adapted from English. Find the original here.
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