On February 24, when Vladimir Putin launched a "special military operation" in Ukraine "to demilitarize" and "denazify" the country, he imagines that the fall of Kiev is only a matter of hours.

Eight days later, Thursday March 3, faced with the resistance of the soldiers and the Ukrainian population, the expected scenario did not happen.

And this unfolding seems to have taken the Russian army by surprise, forcing it to review its strategy. 

The failure of the "blitzkrieg"

"Vladimir Putin wanted a lightning operation, a coup, which was going to create surprise", estimates with France 24 Philippe Gros, senior researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research, specializing in military issues.

"Kiev was the main target: Moscow thought it would bring down Volodymyr Zelensky's government quite easily, 'save the country from the oppressor' and then continue invading the territory without encountering significant resistance."

On February 24, at dawn, troops on land entered Russia from Belarus and headed for Kiev.

At the same time, an operation is underway to take control of Hostomel airport, about thirty kilometers from the capital.

"By taking the airport, the Russian army wanted to neutralize the defenses of the adversaries and to acquire a major strategic center", explains to France 24 Dominique Trinquand, former head of military mission of the French delegation of the United Nations.

"With its long airstrip, it would have made it possible to bring armored vehicles, weapons and soldiers to the foot of the capital."

Enough to quickly overcome the Ukrainian forces taken by surprise.

"Failed bet", affirm the two specialists together.

After hours of fighting, the Russian forces are pushed back by the Ukrainian army and have not taken control of the airport.

>> Ukraine: from Maidan to war, via Minsk, eight years of tension with Russia

The Russian army faces logistical obstacles

Since then, the Russian army has had to put in place a plan B. New strategy: "Mobilize forces on the ground to encircle the city, weaken it by attacking water, electricity or even telecommunications , then finally attack it when it is relatively emptied of its population", continues Dominique Trinquand.

On Tuesday evening, a Russian missile destroyed the television tower in Kiev.

And since the weekend, ground forces have been converging on the city in three ground convoys.

One of them, visible on satellite images, is now only a few kilometers away, but no breakthrough has yet been attempted.

To the east, another column, also from Belarus, tried to reach Kiev along the Dnieper River.

It remains, for the moment, stuck about 150 km from its target.   

"These convoys are limited by many logistical problems", analysis with France 24 Cédric Mas, military historian.

"They lack fuel but also food, which explains why we sometimes see videos of abandoned tanks or soldiers looting stores". 

"Refueling capabilities are a recurring problem within the Russian army," he continues.

"And that's reinforced by the fact that clearly some of the soldiers weren't expecting to fight. I think a lot of them were surprised at what was happening."

Kharkiv, a strategic city towards Kiev

Faced with these logistical obstacles, the city of Kharkiv plays a major strategic role.

The second city of Ukraine, populated by 1.4 million inhabitants, is, in fact, located only about thirty kilometers from the Russian border, "in the hands of the Russians, it could become a new strategic relay for transport weapons, fuel and supplies," said Dominique Trinquand.

"In my opinion, that's why they are opting for a different strategy from Kiev and attacking it head-on and brutally." 

Since Tuesday, the city has suffered repeated artillery fire.

Rockets, missiles and bombs fall continuously causing considerable damage.

According to the governor of the region, on Thursday, March 3, there were about twenty deaths among civilians.  

"Kharkiv also has symbolic importance. Moscow did not believe that this Russian-speaking city considered pro-Russian would put up so much resistance," adds Cédric Mas.

"And by opting for a brutal offensive, Russia is also playing on the psychological card. A big part of this war is being played out on the moral plane, about who will crack first."

A breakthrough in the south of the country

If the Russian army does not manage to advance as quickly as it would like in the east and in the north of Ukraine, another front has also opened up in the south, where the Russian army is trying to take control of the entire Black Sea coast.

Thursday morning, the Ukrainian authorities thus confirmed that the city of Kherson, located not far from the Crimean peninsula annexed in 2014 by Moscow, was now in Russian hands.

At the same time, the shelling intensified in Mariupol, the main Ukrainian port on the Sea of ​​Azov.

"These are very strategic places. By taking control of these cities, the Russians are creating a corridor with Crimea and Donbass and ensuring their control over the entire Sea of ​​Azov", explains Dominique Trinquand. 

“The next objective could thus be the city of Odessa, which remains relatively spared for the moment”, judges the former soldier.

"That would be a very good catch. The port is responsible for the vast majority of Ukraine's maritime supply and would open a new door for sending equipment and soldiers…"

“The human cost will be dramatic”

So after the disappointment of the first days, the Russian army seems to have a new priority: to prepare a military breakthrough in Kiev, with a much larger strike force and better logistical support behind the front line to enable them to hold a siege if necessary.  

"I fear that we are gradually falling into a war of attrition", concludes, meanwhile, Philippe Gros.

"Securing the logistics can take weeks or even months. It requires a complete reorganization. And during that time, they risk razing everything in their path."

By mobilizing its air forces and its artillery in the conquest of these cities, the Russian army seems indeed to have brought the war into a new phase, where it no longer hesitates to launch brutal offensives on urban areas.

"The conflict risks getting bogged down and the human cost will be dramatic", warns Cédric Mas.

"Make no mistake, even if he denies it, going after civilians is part of Putin's strategy. By sowing terror, he is sure to put pressure on the negotiations." 

"Overall, there are three options for the future", summarizes Dominique Trinquand. "The first, the dramatic solution, consists in taking Kiev by force. The other would be to leave by the back door via the adoption of a ceasefire: this would be experienced as a victory for Putin who could keep a stranglehold on the territories won in the south. Last option, that the conflict lasts and that the weight of the sanctions does not shake him in his country…"

© Graphic studio France Media World

The summary of the

France 24 week invites you to come back to the news that marked the week

I subscribe

Take international news everywhere with you!

Download the France 24 app

google-play-badge_EN