The war in Ukraine, which is now unfolding before our eyes, may be the most transformative event in Europe since World War II and the most dangerous confrontation the world has seen since the Cuban Missile Crisis.

This is what the prominent American political analyst and journalist writer Thomas Friedman sees in an article in the American newspaper (The New York Times), which looks at the outcomes of the Russian war on Ukraine and feels the possible scenarios for its end.

Friedman believes that there are 3 possible scenarios for the end of the war, some catastrophic and some involve "dirty" understandings, as follows:


The first scenario: a full-fledged catastrophe

What is happening now, Friedman says, indicates that Russian President Vladimir Putin is ready to kill as many people as possible and destroy as much Ukrainian infrastructure as possible to eliminate the country's independence, freedom, culture and leadership.

He pointed out that if Vladimir Putin does not change his behavior or the West is able to deter him, this scenario - which is now unfolding - may lead to the commission of war crimes that Europe has not witnessed since the era of the Nazis, and these crimes would make Putin and his aides and Russia as a pariah country in the around the world.

The writer believes that every day that Putin continues to refuse to stop his military operations in Ukraine brings the world a step closer to the gates of hell, as he put it, and that videos on social media showing the brutality of the Russian army in Ukraine will make it difficult for the world to ignore what is happening there.

But the intervention - and the words of Friedman - may ignite the first war in which nuclear weapons are used in the heart of Europe, and in turn, allowing the Russian president to turn Kyiv into ruins and kill thousands of civilians, as happened in Aleppo and Grozny, will enable him to create another Afghanistan in Europe, which leads to the spread of Chaos and the influx of refugees.

The article notes that the Russian president's war goals are not limited to preventing Ukraine from joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), but rather seeks to create a "Russian world" in which Ukrainians and Russians are "one people", and that his mission is to "reunite All Russian-speaking people in various places that once belonged to Tsarist Russia.

Friedman believes that if the United States and its allies try to stand in Putin's way or humiliate him in the way they did with Russia at the end of the Cold War, the Russian president has stated that he is ready to respond. Anyone who tries to stand in his way must be prepared to face "consequences he has never seen before."

In this regard, the writer pointed to reports questioning Putin's sanity, all of which point to a terrifying scenario.


Scenario Two: Dirty Settlement

The second scenario that may lead to the end of the war - according to Thomas Friedman - is that the Ukrainian army and people will be able to withstand long enough against the Russian blitzkrieg, and that the economic sanctions will be able to inflict severe damage on the Russian economy in a way that will compel both sides of the war to seek a settlement. filthy,” says the author.

It is expected that this settlement will include a ceasefire and the withdrawal of Russian forces in exchange for Ukraine's official relinquishment of the eastern Ukrainian regions now under Russia's control, in addition to an explicit official pledge from Kyiv not to join NATO.

In the same context, the United States and its allies agree to lift all economic sanctions that they recently imposed on Russia.

Friedman is unlikely to achieve this scenario due to several factors, including: It requires Putin to realize his inability to achieve his vision of re-assimilating Ukraine into the motherland, Russia, despite the heavy price he paid in terms of his economy and the blood of his soldiers who fell in the war.

Scenario: Salvation

The third and final scenario - which Friedman sees as the best although it is the least likely - is for the Russian people to rise up with courage in defense of their freedom, as the Ukrainian people did, and rid the region of war by removing Putin from office.

The writer expects that many Russians worry that as long as Putin is their country’s leader, they will not have a bright future, and this has reflected thousands of them taking to the streets, to protest his crazy war against Ukraine despite the risks to their personal safety.

Friedman believes that although it is too early to say for certain the significance of the Russian popular protests against Putin's war on Ukraine, it calls into question whether the Russian people have broken the barrier of fear, and whether the popular uprising is able to end his rule in the end.

The writer concludes that Putin's continuation in his war that destroys Ukrainian cities will push Russia into a major prison given the international isolation that will be imposed on it, and that the influential figures in Russia and the Russian people as a whole have two options, either cooperate to overthrow Putin or end up living with him in an internationally isolated country. .