Intelligence analysts: Putin is an isolated leader and may take a reckless act if he is trapped

Post quoted

European and US intelligence officials as saying that Russian President Vladimir Putin seemed to be isolated, and that he relied on a handful of advisers who did not tell him about the difficulty and cost of occupying Ukraine and its consequences.

And she said - in

prepared by three of her journalists that analysts see in Putin a "nervous, megalomaniac" leader who has underestimated the unified resolve shown by the West, and is likely to take a reckless act when he feels trapped.

Those concerns have prompted some policymakers to assert, time and time again, that NATO would not intervene in the war lest Putin arouse any doubt.

According to several US officials familiar with the matter, US policy makers have recently asked the intelligence community for clarification on what Putin thinks.

What goes through the mind of the leader?

Perhaps one of the most difficult tasks facing intelligence analysts is understanding what goes on in the mind of a leader.

However, it is important, in the case of the Russian president, that policymakers understand how the latter will act so that they can control their reactions in light of this, and then try to find a way to end the war in Ukraine, according to the American newspaper report.

"Analysts are currently examining every word Putin says and every move he makes to find indications of his mental state, character, plans and intentions."

In this, a US administration official - who requested that the Washington Post not reveal his name - says that they realized that Putin remained isolated during the Corona Virus (Covid-19) pandemic and that he was surrounded by people who "willed at his fingertips".

The US official adds, "Everyone (in the intelligence services) is looking for weaknesses (in Putin) when it comes to his grip on power, but we did not find any significant holes."

They provide misleading information

Prior to the invasion, American and British intelligence had warned that Putin's advisers were providing him with misinformation and painting him a rosy picture of how easy the invasion could be.

Another official spoke of images of Putin sitting at a distance from those around him, which is in a way a metaphor for what is happening.

Of particular concern are the West's doubts about Putin's access to reliable information, according to US and Western officials who fear the way the Russian president might interpret Western media analyzes regarding the European Union's dispatch of warplanes to Ukraine, or the imposition of a no-fly over those The state.

What do officials fear?

It is unlikely - according to the Washington Post - that American and European leaders will endorse these measures, but just talking about them may be taken into account by Russia in its next steps, which is what they fear.

European officials have also expressed concerns that the more sanctions pressure on the Russian president, the more likely he will be forced to strike more civilian targets in Ukraine.

Understanding Putin has become more complicated due to the intelligence services' lack of human resources close to the Russian president, the Washington Post believes in its report.