With the escalation of battles in Ukraine after the Russian forces entered it last Thursday, it seems that the economic repercussions will not stop at the borders of these two countries or the European Union, but will extend to various countries of the world, including Iraq.
The repercussions of the Russian war in Ukraine may not be direct on Iraq, but the interdependence of the global economic system with each other makes it difficult for any country to be immune from what is happening. Iraq, as is the case with the countries of the world, will be affected economically and nutritionally if this war continues.
Al-Mashhadani saw that the crisis in Ukraine will not have a direct impact on Iraq, but it will raise international wheat prices (Al-Jazeera Net)
Economic repercussions
Iraq is one of the largest countries in the world that sponsors a national diet through the distribution of foodstuffs, especially flour, to the population since the nineties of the last century within what is known as the monthly ration card. Iraq will not achieve self-sufficiency in growing wheat, due to drought and lack of rain, as it imports it from several countries.
The Iraqi Minister of Agriculture, Muhammad al-Khafaji, expected last month that local wheat production would reach 3 million tons in the current season, which is less than the previous season. In his interview with Reuters, he attributed this to the reduction of the winter agricultural plan by half.
Iraq is a major importer of grain in the Middle East, as local consumption requires between 4.5 to 5 million tons annually for local consumption, which forces it to import abroad.
Although Iraq does not import wheat from Ukraine or Russia, the war between the two countries will certainly affect its prices globally, with Russia and Ukraine acquiring 25% of global production, according to the latest statistics.
In this regard, Professor of Economics at the Iraqi University, Dr. Abdul Rahman al-Mashhadani, says that the economic damage to Iraq as a result of the Russian-Ukrainian war will be indirect, but it will affect Iraq with regard to the import of wheat and grain in general.
Al-Mashhadani added that grain prices have witnessed a significant increase since last year as a result of drought, fires and lack of global productivity, in addition to the new variable in the Russian-Ukrainian war, "which will certainly raise prices."
With regard to Iraq's import of wheat, Al-Mashhadani explained - to Al Jazeera Net - that although Iraq did not contract with Russia or Ukraine to import wheat
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and that Iraqi imports from this crop are often from Canada, Australia and the United States, the war will increase the demand for wheat globally. As a result of the trend of other countries to these countries from which Iraq imports, and this will most likely lead to an increase in wheat prices globally.
Moussa ruled out that there would be a significant impact of the Ukrainian crisis on the costs of Iraq's import of gas (Al Jazeera Net)
natural gas and energy
The effects of the Russian-Ukrainian war do not stop at wheat. Oil and natural gas prices witnessed a big jump as a result of the Russian-Ukrainian war and Europe's dependence on Russian gas to a large extent.
In this regard, Al-Mashhadani continues that Iraq imports gas from Iran, and that the increase in its prices in Iraq will depend on the type and nature of contracts signed between Baghdad and Iran, and whether the prices were previously set for a long period of time or not.
Another factor that will affect Iraq is in the field of energy. The Russian-Ukrainian war led to a rise in oil prices, which will serve Iraq as a source. However, the damage may lie in the fact that Iraq imports oil derivatives with an estimated 12 million liters per day, which will increase the cost imposed on Iraq. In this aspect, according to Al-Mashhadani.
He believes that there are many other related matters in this regard, represented by the presence of Russian oil companies operating in Iraq, which may impose international sanctions on them that do not know what the payment mechanism is or what it may entail, and this may lead to the cash payment system, as well as another problem represented in The possibility of the withdrawal of these Russian oil companies from Iraq as a result of international pressure.
For his part, a spokesman for the Iraqi Ministry of Electricity, Ahmed Moussa, indicated that Iraq's import contracts for Iranian gas include importing 70 million cubic meters of gas per day in the summer and 50 million cubic meters in the winter, explaining that Iranian gas imports fell to 8 million cubic meters per day in the months Last.
Regarding the rise in global gas prices and their impact on Iraq, Moussa revealed that the contracts between Iraq and Iran are international and are subject to protocols, indicating that the Ukrainian crisis did not directly affect Iraq due to the lack of Iranian gas supplies and because the contracts are international and have fixed prices since before the war.
Saleh: The continuation of the war in Ukraine will lead to a global energy crisis, which will increase Iraq's financial revenues (Al Jazeera Net)
Equal harm and benefit
There are many opinions regarding the damage that the Ukrainian crisis may cause. Economist Mazhar Muhammad Salih, for his part, believes that if the war in Ukraine continues, a global energy crisis will inevitably come, but Iraq, as an oil-exporting country, seems to be a positive factor in By increasing its revenues from oil sales with other economic burdens.
Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, Saleh believes that there is a significant increase in food prices globally, which will affect Iraq, indicating that the Iraqi state is alert to this confusing situation, and that wheat will be the most prominent factor in the global food crisis that began last year, which will negatively affect Iraq. By importing 80% of his food needs, as he put it.
Despite this difficult equation, Saleh believes that Iraq will be at an economic break-even point, through the high prices of oil it exports with the rise in food prices globally;
Thus, the damage in Iraq will be less than in other non-oil exporting countries.
Regarding the Iraqi position on Russia and the possibility of Iraq being subjected to international pressure regarding its dealings with Russian oil companies, Saleh concludes by noting that the situation is not clear so far and that the war is still in its early days, and therefore the scene cannot be fully extrapolated.
Al-Janabi warned against exploiting the world's preoccupation with the Ukrainian crisis to influence Iraq (Al-Jazeera Net)
political influences
On the political side, the situation seems more complicated, as Muhannad al-Janabi, professor of international relations at Cihan University in Erbil, confirms that in the scene of international politics and the rise of power struggle as a result of the war in Ukraine, influential parties resort to exploiting regions in fragile states, indicating that Iraq is a soft area. Iran and Turkey are jostling for influence regionally, and the United States and China internationally.
Regarding the geostrategic threats, Al-Janabi believes - in his speech to Al-Jazeera Net - that the threats may not extend to Iraq if the war continues in Ukraine, but the expansion of the warring parties will be directly reflected in stimulating the greedy forces in neighboring regions to repeat the Russian experience and fill the soft spaces, taking advantage of this preoccupation The international community on the ongoing war in Ukraine.
He comments by saying, "Such a development would extend to Iraq, which suffers from a structural defect in the structures of its political system, which requires a strong government to take responsibility for preventing Iraq from getting involved in the international imbalance, which will directly reflect on the interests of the conflicting powers, creating a threat that may not be limited In the national interest, it extends to threatening the existence of the Iraqi state.”