3 goals of Putin from the war .. British expert for Al Jazeera Net: These are the mistakes of the Russian army in Ukraine

LONDON

- The Russian war on Ukraine is rolling into developments that many observers and analysts did not expect, and the situation has become so dangerous that it is difficult to predict its outcome.

The world is awaiting the reactions emanating from Moscow or from Western capitals, and wonders: Are they moving in the direction of further escalation, or will there be room for negotiation and an end to the war?

In this interview with John Love, Director of the Russia and Eurasia Research Project at Chatham House in London, the British researcher reveals the reasons for the Russian war on Ukraine, and what mistakes President Vladimir Putin's military team made before launching the operation And his expectations about the fate of this war and its impact on the world.

Was Russia expecting the war to last that long?

It appears - through the phases of the battles and their daily details - that the Russian Army Staff underestimated the combat readiness of its forces, and did not mobilize as it should, in front of a brave and resolute Ukrainian defense that has so far succeeded in thwarting Russian military plans.

Russia's goal, by declaring the withdrawal of part of its forces from the Ukrainian border before the invasion, was to cause a state of relaxation in the defenses of the Ukrainian army, and then to adopt the tactic of blitzkrieg.

But this tactic did not work now because the war is getting longer and longer, which means that the Russian army will have to resort to other plans that require bringing in more soldiers, and bombing major cities, in an attempt to break the will shown by the Ukrainian army to continue fighting on more than one front and still maintains its base and command of its operations.

Also, Russia's resort to heavy bombing, and more soldiers on the ground, will mean more deaths among civilians, and this necessarily means more sanctions against Russia.

Researcher John Love believes that Putin and his team underestimated the combat readiness of the Ukrainian army (Reuters)

What is Putin's main goal in this war?

Putin had 3 goals during this war, and he wants to achieve them quickly and decisively, which are the overthrow of the democratically elected Ukrainian government and the installation of another pro-Moscow, and then to force Ukraine to abandon its demands to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization "NATO" and prevent its accession to the European Union.

For me, the main objective of this process is to strip Ukraine of its independence and sovereignty, and to become only a vassal state of Moscow without any autonomy.

What is your assessment of the Western reaction, whether European or American?

The West, in general, woke up late, and did not act in a timely, strict and serious manner. If it had taken the necessary measures before the start of the war, it would surely have made Moscow think a lot before the military attack.

But now, by following up on all the sanctions adopted by Western countries, in all fields, I expect that they are enough to bring the Russian economy to its knees because of the losses it has incurred and will incur in the coming days, with the West brandishing more sanctions.

Are Western sanctions really able to deter Russia?

I think that the current sanctions will not show their effectiveness unless they continue and may increase their severity, for then we can ask: Will these sanctions lead not to stop the war, but to force the Russian regime to change its political behavior and course in dealing with foreign issues?

In my opinion, if the war is prolonged, and the effects of sanctions begin to appear on the Russian economy, and on the daily life of the Russian citizen, then Putin's leadership and legitimacy will be called into question.

Do you think that Putin underestimated the reaction of the West and the United States in particular, and did not expect all these sanctions?

Yes - to some extent - this is true. It appears that the Russian assessments were going in one direction, especially if we look at the US and European statements prior to the start of the war, which indicated that the reaction would be weak.

But - on the other hand, Russia will take countermeasures, especially in the energy sector, which may make life difficult in some European countries, especially if Putin decides to cut off gas supplies to Europe.

There are countries that depend on Russian gas to provide half of their needs and more, and cutting it off means a real energy crisis in some European countries.

A demonstration in London against the Russian attack on Ukraine (Getty Images)

What are the economic and political consequences of the war on Russia?

The economic consequences will be devastating by all measures and catastrophic for the Russian economy, and other countries may be affected, especially if an energy war breaks out. These sanctions may go far and their impact will not remain confined to the economy, but may lead to real political changes inside and outside Russia in the long run.