To analyse
Joe Biden's first State of the Union address amid war in Ukraine
Joe Biden, October 20, 2021. AP - Susan Walsh
Text by: Stefanie Schüler Follow
4 mins
It is an unpopular president who engages this Tuesday, March 1 in a major ritual of American political life: the speech on the state of the Union.
A prime time
speech
, in front of the elected representatives of Congress and with a war in Europe as a surprise guest
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A few days ago, we were expecting the first State of the Union address from the 46th American president, above all on the domestic political front, "
because Joe Biden has just appointed a new justice to the Supreme Court who is the first black woman in this position, Ketanji Brown Jackson, and because the voters especially expect actions in relation to the rising cost of living, in relation to inflation which is really the first concern of Americans
, "said the historian Corentin Sellin.
► To read also: Joe Biden appoints African-American judge Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Supreme Court
The war in Ukraine forces Biden to change the heart of his speech
But the war in Ukraine forces the 79-year-old Democrat to change the very heart of his speech.
“
Some could expect divisions within NATO, divisions within the European Union on the measures to be taken to counter the action of Russia.
It was one of the priorities of the Biden administration to prevent this type of division and, on the contrary, to keep a united front.
And in that, it is an absolute success since today there was no big hiccup between the allies on the actions to be taken vis-à-vis Russia.
And Joe Biden will be able to put that to his credit as having been the conductor of an alliance which finally held and which may come out of it even stronger than before the crisis
, ”analyzes Martin Quencez.
in Paris stresses that this is one of Joe Biden's campaign promises and a way for the president to distinguish himself from his predecessor Donald Trump.
“
And the second pillar that Joe Biden will put forward in the context of this crisis is the fight against autocracies.
So this idea that the world today is structured around an opposition between democracies and autocracies and that the Russian aggression in Ukraine is an illustration of this”.
Fight against autocracies around the world and against inflation in the United States
For Joe Biden, it will in any case not be easy to include the war in Europe in his domestic political agenda.
Only 37% of Americans still trust him.
The president has certainly succeeded in launching a massive plan to invest in infrastructure, but he has also suffered several bitter legislative failures in Congress.
His grand “ Build Back Better
” reform plan
is stalled in the Senate, primarily because of divisions within his own camp.
► Also to listen: United States: "Joe Biden and the Democratic Party could not impose unity in their ranks"
Many Americans today believe that Joe Biden has done little to improve their daily lives.
For Corentin Sellin, the consequences of the international crisis on public opinion in the United States are not yet predictable: "
Will there be this effect of rallying around the flag, that's to be seen
".
While Martin Quencez believes that “
we are no longer in a regional war.
And of that, I think the American population is well aware of it.
It is a war that also affects Americans in their security.
And that's what Joe Biden is going to highlight when he explains why the population must bear significant economic costs
.
Preparing Americans for the Sacrifices to Come
Since the president is going to have to prepare these fellow citizens this evening for the sacrifices that will result from the package of sanctions against Russia.
And this while the inflation rate reached 7.5% in one year.
Domestic politics per se will therefore also feature prominently in Joe Biden's speech tonight.
“
He will have to talk to Americans about their daily worries
,” argues historian Corentin Sellin.
"
From the end of the current pandemic wave, from the rising cost of living - showing for example that he opened up the strategic oil reserves to bring down the price of gasoline at the pump - to showing that he is well in contact with the daily demands of citizens
".
One thing is certain: the president is playing big this Tuesday evening.
The midterm elections are fast approaching.
And nothing says that Joe Biden will be able to preserve the current slim majority of Democrats in both houses of Congress.
►
To read also: Minority rights in the United States: in Georgia, African-American voters disillusioned by the Biden presidency
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