CAIRO

- Ethiopia's continuation of the operations of unilaterally filling the Renaissance Dam Lake threatens the cultivation of some strategic crops in Egypt, including rice, whose cultivation areas have been reduced several times by successive government decisions, and reached about 725,000 feddans, down from two million and 200 thousand feddans in 2009.

Ethiopia intends to start the third filling next summer, after announcing its success in completing the second phase of filling last July, which was planned with 13.5 billion cubic meters of water in order to reach the full storage capacity of the dam lake, which is close to 74 billion cubic meters (close to the shares of Egypt and Sudan, estimated at 84 billion cubic metres).

And the Egyptian government decided last week to limit the area of ​​rice cultivation to 742,200 feddans - which starts its cultivation season next April, and it is one of the water-greedy crops - at 742 thousand feddans, and it continued to be restricted to 9 governorates - mostly in the Delta (north of Cairo) - to face an increase water salinity.

The decision - which began to be implemented for the first time in 2018 - also stipulated the cultivation of 200,000 feddans with water-saving rice varieties, such as dry rice, in addition to 150,000 feddans planted with water with relatively high salinity in the authorized governorates of the Delta.

Imprisonment and a fine for violators

The Egyptian government says that reducing the area of ​​rice cultivation aims to rationalize water consumption, and since 2016 it began to implement a new system for agriculture that included reducing areas in some governorates and completely preventing them in other governorates, applying the agricultural cycle system in third governorates, and finally imposing a penalty on violators that includes a fine and prison.

In April 2018, the House of Representatives approved a draft law aimed at legalizing the cultivation of certain crops such as rice to rationalize water consumption, due to the country’s suffering from water poverty, which requires rationalization in the cultivation of those crops, and stipulated imprisonment and a fine for violating farmers.

At the end of March 2021, Parliament approved a new water resources and irrigation bill that would impose prison sentences on farmers who did not comply with the areas specified for rice cultivation.

strategic crop

The former assistant professor at the Egyptian Agricultural Research Center Abdel Tawab Barakat considered that the decision to reduce rice cultivation to the declared area harms the farmer, because it generates a good cash return, so the farmer is the one who bears the effects of water poverty and the state’s inability to address the crisis of the Renaissance Dam, which has already affected the Agriculture in Egypt.

Barakat stressed - in statements to Al-Jazeera Net - that rice is a strategic crop for the Egyptians immediately after wheat, and Egypt has achieved self-sufficiency for many years, and is considered the most quality among many varieties of rice, and an acre of land achieves high productivity, but accusations of consuming large quantities of water chased rice until it turned The country becomes an importer at times.

In addition to being a strategic crop, it is a reclamation crop - according to Barakat - capable of washing the land - especially in the northern delta - from excess salt, which faces the entry of sea water due to the decline in the level of the Nile River, and in light of Ethiopia's intransigence, decisions to reduce rice cultivation areas will not work because the crisis It will be much larger.

The Egyptian academic and agricultural expert pointed out that the new law stipulated for the first time the imprisonment of farmers who violate the government’s decision regarding the places and area of ​​rice, despite the development of rice varieties in the Agricultural Research Center that consume less water and stay for a shorter period (about 4 months). Failure to reach an agreement on the Renaissance Dam is not the responsibility of the farmers.

From export to import

Egypt - which ranked 11th among the rice-exporting countries in the world according to figures from the Agricultural Export Council in June 2013 - was forced to import quantities of it in 2018 to bridge the gap between production and consumption.

And a report by the US Department of Agriculture expected - according to local sites - that Egypt's production of rice would decline by up to 28% in the 2021-2022 season, compared to production estimates last season, and production would drop to 3.19 million tons, compared to 4.4 million tons, as part of the Egyptian government's efforts to provide water.

Despite the reduction in the area of ​​rice cultivation, the head of the Farmers Syndicate, Hajj Hussein Abu Saddam, believes that the area is sufficient for the local consumption, which is estimated at 3.4 million tons of white rice annually, with an average consumption of 40 kilograms per capita.

The average productivity of an acre - according to press statements by Abu Saddam - is about 3.5 tons per acre, indicating that the increase in the area specified in violation leads to a decrease in rice prices on the one hand and wastes Egypt's water resources on the other.

Water shortage and the danger of reducing the agricultural area

A study prepared by academics at American universities - including the Egyptian academic at NASA, Dr. Essam Heggy, and recently published in the journal "Environmental Research Letters" - says that the Egyptian agricultural area is threatened with an alarming decline of 72% in one of the worst scenarios.

The study considers that Egypt’s water resources are threatened with a decline of 31 billion cubic meters annually, which is equivalent to more than double Egypt’s annual share of the Nile water, which amounts to 55.5 billion cubic meters, if Ethiopia adheres to the rapid filling of the dam’s reservoir, which accommodates 74 billion cubic meters. The study believes that the loss may reach 43 billion in the event of mobilization in only 3 years.