Mr. Brauß, Russia's ruler Vladimir Putin has put his country's "deterrence forces" on alert. They include nuclear weapons. How big do you currently think the danger of a third world war is?
Lorenz Hemicker
Editor in Politics
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I don't think the risk is great.
The laws of deterrence still apply.
Should Putin entertain the idea of attacking NATO militarily, the alliance would have the means to deny him success or inflict military damage in excess of the intended gain.
Should he plan a nuclear strike, he would run the great risk of an American counter-attack on Russia itself, which in the worst case could have a devastating effect.
Putin knows that and he cannot want that.
I trust him with so much strategic rationality that he doesn't.
The move is nonetheless unprecedented.
I can imagine that, from his point of view, Putin wants to deter the West from intervening militarily in Ukraine.
He's afraid of that, because he would probably do it the other way around.
In doing so, he sharpened the message to the West from his ill-fated evening speech about Ukraine and the beginning of the war: keep out, I'm nuclear-armed.
And everyone knows what can come of it.
NATO appeared to have reacted fairly calmly to Putin's move. America's President Joe Biden refrains from increasing the operational readiness of the US armed forces. How do you rate this reaction?
I think that's smart and sovereign.
In such a situation, one should avoid any step that could unnecessarily provoke Putin and perhaps lead to ill-considered actions.
The nuclear strategic experts in Russia will in any case be aware that the Kremlin chief's statements were listened to and analyzed very carefully in the West and that measures are being taken internally that are not made public.
And I can imagine that the Americans placed information about it through appropriate channels in Moscow.
Former US Intelligence Director James Clapper says Putin is "off balance" and has his finger on the nuclear trigger. If so, what options would NATO have to stop him from squeezing him?
Like I said, I don't think he's pulling the trigger.
However, should he continue to threaten it, it would be up to the American President to remind Putin in an appropriate manner of the mechanisms of nuclear deterrence, which could harm him himself.
The Russian President would take this very seriously.
One might also consider convening a meeting of NATO's Nuclear Planning Group.
That would be a politically very significant, demonstrative step.
There, the threats from Putin, intelligence and analysis by the allies would lead to a joint assessment, which could then result in a series of measures that would visibly underpin the credibility of NATO deterrence.
For example, a demonstrative exercise of nuclear-capable aircraft.
US Chief of Staff Mark Milley contacted his Chinese counterpart Li Zuocheng behind President Donald Trump's back after the Capitol storm in early 2021, assuring him that US forces would not attack China. Do you think the Russian general staff can take steps to avert a nuclear war?
It would be reassuring to be able to trust that.
I hope that there are representatives in the Russian leadership who, in an extreme situation, will hug Putin.
Even without the assumption of a Russian Kremlin chief gone irrational, the Russian invasion right in front of NATO's eastern flank harbors risks. How do you prevent an unintended escalation, such as
a misguided missile that, instead of hitting Lviv, hits Poland?
Such incidents cannot be completely ruled out in a war.
For such cases, there are procedures between the NATO allies and the Russian side on how to control the whole thing and avoid the situation escalating.
Are there still red phones?
The red telephone was an instrument of the Cold War, when there were no communications between the Soviet Union and the United States, either political or military.
Fortunately, this is different today.
The US President and other NATO heads of state are in telephone contact with President Putin.
NATO's military supreme commander, SACEUR, and the Russian chief of staff also have a direct connection.
In a worsening crisis between Russia and NATO, they would all be used.