Why Russia invades Ukraine in the first place Why did Russia embark on a military invasion of Ukraine?

When I asked Russian diplomatic and security experts in detail about the background, two keywords emerged.



1 "Countries with the same roots"


2 "NATO's" Eastern expansion ""



From the beginning, I will explain in an easy-to-understand manner.

What does "a country with the same roots" mean?

The key to knowing this must be traced back to the historic event of the collapse of the Soviet Union 30 years ago.



Originally, until 30 years ago, both Russia and Ukraine were one of the 15 republics that make up the Soviet Union.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, each of the 15 member states began to move independently as a new nation.



New national flags and national anthems have been enacted in these countries.



Even 30 years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, there is a consciousness that Russia was the same country, and it is said that the consciousness of Ukraine in particular is special.

What does Russia see in Ukraine?

Taisuke Kurosaki, a senior researcher at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation, who is familiar with Russia's diplomatic and security policies, points out that it is necessary to go back further in considering the relationship between Russia and Ukraine.



From the end of the 8th century to the 13th century, there was a nation called "Kievan Rus'" in the region that straddles Ukraine and Russia today.

The central city was Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine today.



From this history, it is pointed out that Russia has a strong awareness of Ukraine as a "country with the same roots" among the countries that made up the same Soviet Union.

What about President Putin?

NHK's commentator Kazuhiro Ishikawa, who has been covering Russia for many years since the former Soviet era, points out that President Putin calls Ukraine a "brother state" and has a "strong attachment".

In fact, Putin stated in a paper published last July that Russia and Ukrainians are of the same ethnic group.



Putin analyzes that he still seems to have not escaped from the consciousness of the former Soviet era.

What does Ukraine see in Russia?

On the other hand, Ukraine has lost such "brotherhood", Ishikawa commentator points out.



In the last 30 years since the Soviet Union collapsed, the initially ambiguous Ukrainian consciousness was created.

However, the Ukrainian side also has a slightly complicated situation.



The eastern part of Ukraine, which is adjacent to Russia, is home to many Russian-speaking people and has a deep historical connection with Russia.



On the other hand, western Ukraine once belonged to the Austro-Hungarian Empire, and its religion is still influenced by Catholicism, and it is a region with a strong tendency to become independent from Russia.



In other words, even in the same country, the east and west are completely divided.

What action has Russia taken against Ukraine?

The Putin administration has always sought to influence Ukraine, which it considers to be a "country with the same roots," through the Russian population in the east.



It extended to the Ukrainian presidential election, and in the 2004 Ukrainian presidential election, President Putin boarded the site twice and explicitly supported the candidates who set up a policy closer to Russia with the eastern support base.



Then, when a Western-oriented government was born in 2014, President Putin secretly dispatched military special forces to Crimea in southern Ukraine, which had many Russian residents and was a strategic strategic point.



It has been annexed unilaterally using military power.

What does NATO's "eastern expansion" mean?

Another key is "NATO" = "eastern expansion" of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.



"NATO" is a military alliance originally created by the United States and other countries to counter the Soviet Union during the Cold War.



According to Principal Detective Agency, when the Soviet Union collapsed, NATO also took on a so-called political role in expanding democracy to countries that were originally communist spheres.



At that time, many Eastern European countries wanted to join the economically prosperous democratic camp, and many countries wanted to join NATO, which was the gateway to it.



In fact, Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary officially joined in 1999.



In 2004, the three Baltic states became members.



This movement is called "eastern expansion."



Also, in Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia, governments closer to Europe and the United States have been born, showing an attitude of approaching NATO.

What does Russia see in NATO's "eastern expansion"?

According to Principal Detective Agency, Russia has a history of being attacked from the west through land, so from the perspective of security, there is a strong awareness that Eastern European countries are "buffer zones."



Therefore, there is a strong resistance to NATO's "eastern expansion," and it is said that Eastern European countries are reluctant to join NATO and to establish military facilities in Eastern European countries.



On the other hand, for some time after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia did not think it was emotionally favorable, but did not explicitly state denial or opposition.

It is said that the turning point was that President Putin criticized NATO's eastern expansion for the first time in public in a speech in Munich, Germany the following year, after paying off the debt of the former Soviet era in 2006. increase.



Since then, it has strongly restrained the movement of Georgia and Ukraine to join NATO.



President Putin has recently severely criticized NATO's eastern expansion as "a breach of promise."

What is the basis for Putin's claim to be "a breach of promise"?

Regarding the "promise" pointed out by President Putin, Senior Researcher Kurosaki says that it refers to the "oral promise" that was made between the then US Secretary of State and Soviet General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev in the 1990s. ..



President Putin argues that when East and West Germany reunify in 1990, U.S. Secretary of State Baker will not extend NATO to Gorbachev to the east in order to withdraw approximately 100,000 Soviet troops stationed in East Germany. It is said that he made a promise to that effect.



However, there are no documents left due to the verbal promise, and there are various theories as to whether such an exchange really took place.



In the background of this military invasion, Putin sees the Ukrainian government, which wants to join NATO, as a "Kairai government" that was born in a "country with the same roots" and is closer to the United States. It is analyzed that this is influenced by NATO's view of security that it cannot tolerate further "eastern expansion".