It is about keeping the balance, and not trusting what seems to be the gut feeling in China today: to automatically ally with the enemies of the United States.

Relations between the United States and China have not been so bad for decades. 

The choice seemed to have already been made when Chinese leader Xi Jinping just a few weeks ago warmly welcomed Russian President Vladimir Putin during the opening of the Olympic Games in Beijing. 

After the meeting, they announced that their countries had signed several business agreements with each other, including on fresh gas deliveries from Russia to China.

Xi Jinping said in a joint statement with his Russian guest that he was deeply concerned about NATO's enlargement plans in Europe.

The former rivals - Russia and China - seemed to be closer to each other than for a very long time.

But in retrospect, questions pile up about what Putin actually promised China.

Did Xi Jinping know about the invasion plans, or was he led astray?

China's election

For China, the choice is between better relations with the West or to support Russia in the Ukraine war.

Or stand in the middle and try to be neutral. 

Supporting Russia without reservation can cost China dearly.

Trade between China and Russia cannot in the long run compensate for the loss that could lead to poorer relations with the EU and the United States.

But by supporting Russia economically, China could completely nullify the effects of sanctions against Russia. 

In the balance is also the issue of Taiwan's independence and China's foreign doctrine, which is based on the principle that China always respects the territorial integrity of countries.

If China recognizes the two breakaway regions of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine as independent to support Russia, it also risks losing its best cards in another, similar situation: if the United States and other Western countries recognize Taiwan's independence.

China regards Taiwan as a breakaway province, not an independent state, and is adamant that no other country in the world should establish diplomatic ties with them.

It is therefore absolutely necessary for the government in Beijing to make a balanced and well-balanced contribution to the conflict between Russia and the Western powers over Ukraine.

So far, the cards have been held close to the chest.

Yesterday, Xi Jinping spoke once again with Vladimir Putin, and after the meeting it emerged that they did not openly support either party, but that they called for restraint.

At the same time, China abstained from the UN Security Council in a vote on a resolution condemning the Russian invasion.

The Chinese Foreign Minister later said that he believed that the UN Security Council should have a constructive role, not escalate the conflict.

China must keep its distance

But if the extensive economic sanctions against Russia are to have any effect, China must keep its distance from Russia and not expand economic cooperation, as it did in 2014, for example, when EU-oriented sanctions against Russia due to the annexation of Crimea.

At that time, Chinese banks lent money to Russia and today it is the country's largest lender.

But if it happens again, the thin thread that China is balancing on can be set in motion.