Eventually, Putin's Russian forces invaded Ukraine.

It is also observed that the capture of the capital Kiev is only a matter of time.

(*This article was written on the evening of the 25th (Friday). The situation is changing every moment, so I will reveal the time of writing.) Before the invasion, Putin had a military operation against Ukraine as the goal of demilitarization of Ukraine, and brought about denazification. 



To demilitarize means to make Ukraine a powerless country that cannot militarily resist Russia, whether on its own or with NATO support.

In Putin's view of history, the sovereignty of Ukraine as an independent state is not recognized.



 'De-Naziization' needs some explanation.

Putin has instigated Ukraine's anti-Russian pro-Western Zelensky government as 'neo-Nazis and spies in the West'.

This 'Nazi labeling' is an outright lie.

Ukrainian President Zelensky is Jewish.

Three of his grandfather's brothers were killed in the genocide of Jews during World War II, the Washington Post reported.

Babi Yar, north of the capital Kiev, is one of the sites of the worst genocide of the Jews.  



Still, Putin makes this claim because Russia and Ukraine suffered so much damage from Nazi Germany during World War II.

There are some people who believe in this false propaganda.

Putin believes that while the Soviet Union fought a bloody battle with the Nazis at the cost of millions of casualties, the West remained on the sidelines, and he insists that the pro-Russian dictator's ouster in Ukraine in 2014 at the end of pro-democracy protests was also usurpation by pro-Western neo-Nazis.

Therefore, it is not unusual for Putin to propose 'de-Naziization' as one of the objectives of the invasion.

Because he reads as a hint to overthrow Ukraine's Zelensky government and establish a pro-Russian government.


 A war in which one country drove its regular troops into another sovereign state in this way has been rare since the late 20th century.

In the 2000s, when the US invaded Iraq or Afghanistan, the pretexts were prevention of genocide or inhumane acts, weapons of mass destruction, and punishment for terrorism.

On the other hand, the reason for this Russian invasion of Ukraine is 'your land is originally ours'. 



 As a result, it has become an international situation in which the United States and Russia face off again with strength and power 30 years after the end of the Cold War.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has been engaged in a nerve war with the United States through the Syrian civil war, but has never conducted such a blatant military force deployment as this time.

This in itself is a product of changes in the international order of 'weakening of the United States and rift in the West', and is highly likely to cause even greater changes in the international order in the future.

Moreover, unlike 30 years ago, there is even a variable called 'strong China', so it can be said that the world's instability has increased.



 This incident also shows that the lessons learned by mankind during the two horrific world wars in the first half of the 20th century are being forgotten.

Multilateralism, which insists that disputes be resolved verbally in a multilateral organization rather than using violence between the parties, is now running out of effect.

Anxiety that the world might regress to the era of great war is engulfing the global village.


The president's appeal, whose life was at risk... 'Don't forget the memories of World War II'


Ukrainian President Zelensky is now in a situation where his life is at stake, not just his regime.

He himself said so in a video speech.

The United States has released intelligence that Russia has created a killing spree to rid Ukraine of anti-Russian forces.



 There have been quite a few cases of assassinations of anti-Putin leaders and journalists in Russia even before that.

Green tea with radioactive substances was used in various ways and insidious.

Ukrainian President Zelensky, whose name will be written on the top of the list of killings, delivered a speech at the Munich Security Conference on the 19th.

At that time, he recalled the history of the outbreak of World War II, saying that Russia could no longer be controlled by appeasement.



 Danzig (Polish name Gdansk) was a major port between Germany and Poland.

The victors of World War I made Danzig independent as a free city in order to weaken Germany and open sea routes for Poland.

Nazi Germany invaded Danzig in 1939 after annexing Austria and Czechoslovakia without much battle.

It was a region with a majority German population, originally German land, and the reason that Danzig residents wanted German domination.

It is similar to the cause of Russia's use of military force in the pro-Russian separatist People's Republic of eastern Ukraine.

At that time, Britain and France had to punish Hitler with force for overturning the post-war order head-on, but as they were suffering from the scars of the war and the aftermath of the Great Depression, they did not want to see blood again, and they hesitated and overlooked Hitler's ambitions. .

Hitler said, 'If you give me a rice cake, I will not eat it,' and later devoured European countries one after another like a tiger that ate not only the rice cake but also his grandmother whole.

Zelensky reminded the NATO members of their history and warned that 'it may be your turn next (to be attacked by Russia)'.  


Great powers take the lead to destroy the international community... The danger of regressive nationalism

 “It was originally our nation’s land.”

When a powerful country says something like this, the neighboring country is humble.

In East Asia, Chinese President Xi Jinping said this during a meeting with then-US President Trump.

“Korea was originally part of China.”


 It's difficult just thinking about it, but you shouldn't invade your opponent's territory by force in that way.

That is also the basic spirit of the United Nations, created by the world working together to prevent the tragedy of another world war.

Article 2 of the UN Charter stipulates as follows.

[United Nations Charter Article 2] Paragraph


1.

The Organization is based on the principle of sovereign equality of all Member States.


Section 4.

All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force with respect to the territorial integrity or political independence of any State or in any other manner incompatible with the purposes of the United Nations.


 The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a direct violation of the Charter of the United Nations by one of the most important members of the United Nations.



 On the 21st, when wealthy countries were busy blaming Russia with their mouths and calculating the damage they would do to them, the UN ambassador in Kenya, in Africa, issued a harsh rebuke to Russia on behalf of mankind's conscience.

Kenyan Ambassador to the UN Martin Kimani delivered the following speech at the UN Security Council.

Although Kenya is not a country that will exert an important influence on the current situation, it contains very meaningful content for the future of the international community. 


1) African countries were born with the end of the empire.

Our borders were not drawn by ourselves, but in the distant capital of the Empire, independent of the original countries.



2) If African countries had tried to create a nation based on ethnic, racial, and religious homogeneity at the time of independence, they would still be fighting a bloody war even decades later.

Instead, we agreed to live within our given borders.

We will pursue political, economic and legal integration at the African continent level towards the future.

Instead of looking back at the past with dangerous nostalgia (nostalgia), we decided to look forward to a greatness we didn't know existed.



3) In all countries formed by the collapse of the empire, there are those who wish to live together with their compatriots living in other countries beyond their borders.

However, I oppose the pursuit of such longings by force.

Refuses to pursue real recoveryism ('reclaim the lost land') or expansionism for any reason.



4) Therefore, the integrity of the borders and territories of Ukraine must be respected.

The international community should not recognize the pro-Russian People's Republic of Donetsk and Luhansk.

All UN member states (not just the Security Council) must unite to restore multilateralism.


 Russia is one of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council with veto power.

It is impossible to impose sanctions on Russia at the UN Security Council level.

Instead, all UN member states can put pressure on Russia through the General Assembly.

This is because the Russian veto does not apply to the General Assembly.

This is what Richard Haas, president of the American Foreign Relations Association (CFR), one of America's leading diplomatic strategists, pointed out in a recent New York Times article.

If a country commits a wide range of inhumane acts, the UN can even resort to military intervention even with a resolution of the General Assembly.

(The opponent has never been a powerful power like Russia, but theoretically, the possibility is open.)


How to stop Russia other than a military clash?

Advice from a US foreign policy strategist


The solution, proposed by Richard Haas, is to increase the total cost of Russia, even if it takes time.

Putin considered the cost of the invasion, such as Western sanctions and Ukraine's resistance, and calculated that it was more profitable than the real thing.

As such, he mentioned information and logistical support to help Ukraine resist the war for a longer period of time, and strengthened military support for NATO member states in western Russia.

The countries highlighted in the map below are Eastern European countries that have become NATO members after German reunification.

Prior to the invasion, Russia's demand was to withdraw Western military forces from these countries.

Rather, it is to prevent Russia's military action like this one by augmenting and deploying Western military power in these countries, and to impose a burden on the Russian system by forcing Russia to maintain a large number of military forces on the front lines.

The argument is that Russia's invasion of Ukraine should end in a long-distance search.

It is highly likely that the increase in armaments will not end exclusively with Eastern European countries that have direct access to Russia.

In the meantime, most countries in Western and Southern Europe have virtually outsourced their national defense to the United States and have been making peace with their remaining national powers, because that era seems to be coming to an end.

The situation where even Germany, which has the strongest power in Central Europe, will have to strengthen its arms again will not come in the near future, but we must be very careful.

In Western history, the appearance of an overly strong German army was not always a good thing.


China's Ukraine dilemma

 In a New York Times article, Richard Haas points out that we need to separate Russia and China.

Russia and China are allies in that they seek to strengthen their respective spheres of influence against the United States.

However, if we look at modern history after communism, Russia and China are not very good neighbors.

Even during the Cold War, the United States had the experience of creating an advantageous structure in the systemic competition with the Soviet Union by dividing China and the Soviet Union through blitz-US-China diplomatic ties.

(Whether the United States today is the same country as the United States then is a different matter.)



 The reason Haas is talking about the Russo-China separation is because China is not in a position to outright side with Russia.

China, which is already using considerable national power in conflict with the West, has little benefit from publicly cheering for Russia.

In addition, China has been promoting the “One Belt, One Road” project to create a new order against the United States. It is a huge infrastructure project that connects Western China to Central Asia and Eastern Europe.

Ukraine was the European gateway to China's Belt and Road Initiative.

It is not very welcome for China that Russia's control is being strengthened not only in Ukraine, but also in countries that China has been eyeing, such as Kazakhstan and Georgia. 



It is also a burden for China to be reminded of the Xinjiang-Uyghur Autonomous Region issue.

If we accept the claim that the Donetsk-Luhansk region in eastern Ukraine has a large number of Russians living for independence, we must also acknowledge the claim that Xinjiang-Uyghurs will become independent from China.

Such concerns are reflected in the recent speech by Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who is responsible for Xi Jinping's foreign affairs. 


 However, as Russia's yielding to pressure from the West is not in the best interests of China, China is expected to quietly help Russia from behind to prevent it from dying due to Western sanctions.

China became a major buyer of Iranian oil when Iran was subjected to strong sanctions, such as an oil export ban. 



Indeed, Russia and China recently agreed to a 30-year contract to supply natural gas to China through a new pipeline.

New gas sales are paid in Euros, not dollars.

The contract was announced through a summit meeting between Putin and Xi Jinping, who visited Beijing on February 4 to attend the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics.


The problem is energy dependence... Embarrassing Western countries

 So, perhaps the most effective but most difficult part of Haas' strategy for Russia is that Russia should reduce the money it earns from energy exports.

This is the biggest difficulty in Western sanctions against Russia.

Russia is one of the world's largest exporters of LNG (liquefied natural gas) along with the United States and Qatar.

Geographically adjacent European countries are the primary customers.

If you look at the dependence of European countries on Russian natural gas, Germany and Italy depend on Russia for almost half of their natural gas imports, and Poland, which plays an important role as a shield against Russian forces, also depends on it for 40%. 


 For this reason, NATO member countries cannot afford to tighten Putin's aggression fund by blocking Russia's oil and natural gas exports.

Rather, I worry that Russia will cut energy exports.

The West has not touched Russia's energy exports even with the additional sanctions.

Germany has 'halted' the Nord stream 2 gas pipeline project, but 2 is an unopened pipeline.

No gas is exported to the West via 2 yet.

The Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline, which was completed in 2012 on the same scale, is still supplying Russian natural gas to Western countries. 


 Haas, who is well aware of this situation, seems to have suggested that 'the price should be lowered' rather than blocking the export of Russian natural gas or oil.

The higher the international oil price, the greater the profit that Russia, the world's top energy exporter, can earn.

A drop in international oil prices could hurt Russia's expansion-aggression behavior.

At the time of Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, when the sanctions were weaker than this time, Russia experienced a serious economic shock, with the value of its currency (ruble) halved and interest rates soared to 17%. because it has plummeted.

(Nevertheless, Russia did not withdraw from Crimea.)



In 2022, things are a little different.

First, in the case of natural gas, according to the Korea Energy Economics Institute, the global LNG production facility utilization rate reached 88%, leaving little room for additional production.

European LNG inventories fell to their lowest level in 20 years.

Qatar, the world's second-largest exporter of LNG, has a position that it is difficult to significantly increase production right now, but change the export destination.

If the U.S. significantly increases shale gas production, it will be possible to fill the void to some extent, but the shale industry in the U.S. has become vulnerable due to environmental regulations, renewable energy drives, and a reduction in the labor force caused by COVID-19, so it seems difficult to increase production immediately.

So the US is asking its allies to concede to Europe some of the LNG imports this year.

Japan responded, and Korea said it was difficult.



As more countries are looking for oil instead of LNG, international oil prices soar.

There are also pessimistic forecasts that the current price of oil, which is currently approaching $100 per barrel, may exceed $150 per barrel this year.

Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) countries such as Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, are lukewarm to requests for an increase in production to bring down international oil prices.

Until the Trump administration, Saudi Arabia often increased oil supply to lower international oil prices in order to cooperate with the United States, but the Biden administration and Saudi Crown Prince bin Salman are not on a very good relationship.

In October 2018, Saudi dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi was murdered in Turkey. 



At the time, U.S. intelligence officials blamed Crown Prince bin Salman for the murder of Khashoggi.

Whether the international community condemned it or not, Trump continued his honeymoon with the Saudi royal family over Crown Prince bin Salman.

President Biden, who nominally promotes the value of human rights, treated Crown Prince bin Salman as a murderer and looked down on him.

The Biden administration also halted the US side with Saudi Arabia in the power struggle between countries in the Middle East.

The Biden administration halted arms sales to Saudi Arabia and resumed nuclear negotiations with Iran.

Since Iran has a different Islamic denomination and is Saudi Arabia's main enemy for influence in the Persian Gulf, Saudi Arabia's eyes on the negotiations that give Iran a breath were not good.



President Biden is on the verge of losing the midterm election as public sentiment worsens due to rising oil prices and the resulting inflation.

Since the fall of last year, when it seemed that this was going to happen, he worked hard to win the heart of Salman Bin.

He was able to draw some increase in production at the end of last year only after carrying out a significant 'charm offensive'.

Bin Salman would have laughed.

Now do you know the power of Saudi Arabia?

He said that if he wanted more oil, he would have to treat himself differently, the Saudi supreme. 


"Need our help?"...the bold authoritarian countries


 A similar phenomenon will extend to other regions as well.

For example, in Europe, the countries that act as a bulwark against Russia's westward advance are Hungary and Poland, the former communist bloc.

The people of these countries have a strong anti-Russian tendency due to their historical experience, but the incumbent powers are showing a tendency to regress to authoritarianism by abusing the democratic process, and also show a populist tendency to exploit national emotions.

The same is happening in Turkey, a country important in deterring Russian access to the Mediterranean.

In the past, the US and Western European countries would have tried to stop them by promoting the values ​​of liberal democracy, but now they will demand non-interference in the system in exchange for blocking Russia or not turning to the pro-Russian camp. 



 Increasing the number of dictatorial countries with nationalist and populist tendencies is not a desirable change.

In these countries, leaders can strengthen their power by instigating ethnic conflicts, and in the process decide war with relative ease, and it is difficult for domestic opposition to prevent it.

The decline of liberal democracy leads to an increased risk of war.


The world is getting tougher... the importance of alliances grows


 In a world where it has become clear that peace cannot be maintained by words alone without power, an alliance is essential to protect the country.

While Ukraine was ravaged by Russian forces, the three Baltic States, which are smaller than Ukraine, were spared the invasion because they are members of the NATO military alliance.

Ukraine knew that too, so it was pushing for NATO membership.

Would Putin have left Ukraine alone if he hadn't gotten close to NATO?

If you look at the 20 years of Putin's reign, you can't say that.

Unless it accepts the humiliation of becoming a Russian puppet state, it would have been difficult for Ukraine to avoid aggression by the Russian army.

It is a tragedy for Ukraine.



The Republic of Korea has an alliance with the United States.

For an alliance to be fully effective in a crisis situation, it is necessary to manage each other well on a regular basis.

The basic ethos of alliances is to do the same for the benefit of each other or to relieve the burden of each other.

There is no alliance that is maintained in such a way that 'You deserve to bleed for me and I will only suck your sweet water'.

The same is true for relationships between individuals and between countries.



[Composition: Senior Correspondent Lee Hyun-sik (D Content Production Committee member), Reporter Jang Seon-i / Designer: Myung Ha-eun Lee Hyun-young]