While the Russian military invasion in Ukraine has inflated gas prices, can Arab producing countries such as Algeria and Qatar embody an alternative to Russia, on which European countries are 40% dependent for their supply? ?

On Friday, February 25, gas was trading on the main European market, the Dutch TTF (Title Transfer Facility), around 113 euros, after peaking at 143 euros the day before around 2:40 p.m. GMT.

A figure not far from the historic record of 180 euros beaten at the end of December, but up by more than 40% over three days.

The United States and its European allies imposed economic and financial sanctions on Russia in response to the invasion of Ukraine, but they have so far spared the hydrocarbon sector, except for the suspension of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline which was not yet in service.

And this, for fear of causing oil and gas prices to soar even further, while Moscow has already significantly reduced its gas exports to the EU from the end of 2021, to reach levels among the lowest in history.

Ironically, as he advances his tanks into Ukrainian territory, President Vladimir Putin is inflating European energy bills while filling the coffers of the Russian state, the world's largest exporter of natural gas.

And unless there is a doomsday scenario that sees the gas completely stop being transported to Europe on orders from the Kremlin, or the EU puts in place an embargo on Russian hydrocarbons, the situation is not likely to be reversed. .

Especially since the members of the Forum of Gas Exporting Countries, of which Algeria and Qatar are members, indicated a few days ago, during a summit in Doha, that they have limited capacities to increase quickly supply Europe.

And therefore allow him to loosen the vice of dependence on Russian gas.

"For the moment, the Europeans cannot count on Algiers or Doha to supplement Russian gas and therefore remain linked to Moscow, which is amassing fortunes on the gas markets when prices rise", summarizes Thierry Bros, professor of Sciences Po and energy expert, contacted by France 24.

Algerian gas, a developing potential

For the moment.

Because Algeria, the third supplier of natural gas for Europe behind Russia and Norway, and ahead of Qatar, according to Eurostat figures, has ambitions for the future.

Sonatrach, the Algerian public oil giant, announced at the beginning of the year that it wanted to invest 40 billion dollars between 2022 and 2026 in the exploration, production and refining of gas.

"Algeria is a special case, since this country is quite close to the borders of the EU, so one could imagine that it could supplement Russian gas, as it already supplies gas to several countries in Europe, and especially to Spain, Portugal and Italy, continues the expert. But in practice, there is a problem, since Algeria needs a lot of gas for its own consumption, and since it has not investments needed so far, the volumes that are available for export are limited enough to claim to replace Russian gas."

An opinion shared by Hasni Abidi, director of the Center for Studies and Research on the Arab and Mediterranean World in Geneva (Switzerland).

“Algeria has every interest in positioning itself on the international gas market as a stable and reliable producer and exporter that can meet certain EU expectations and embody a longer-term solution,” he explains. to France 24. "However, its export capacity is not expandable, and it is currently very difficult or even impossible for Algeria to compensate for Russian gas on its own, in the event of an aggravation of the crisis and a vacuum left by Moscow."

The country, which also holds the world's third largest reserves of technically recoverable shale gas, is certainly linked by historical relations with Russia but, according to experts, it will not hesitate to put forward its own interests.

“You have to realize that at the current price of gas, anyone who has molecules available would be quite ready to sell them and make monstrous profits, underlines Thierry Bros. Realpolitik has always existed in the gas sector. As a reminder, Western countries signed gas contracts with the USSR in the midst of the Cold War, while Soviet tanks ruled the law on the other side of the Iron Curtain.

Algeria is even at the heart of NATO's attention, which would like to see Algerian gas and liquefied gas sent to central Europe, according to the Spanish daily La Vanguardia.

But also those of the United States, which recently asked groups operating on the spot to find out if it was possible to increase the production of Algerian gas intended for export.

“The United States and the EU are working together to ensure a supply of natural gas to the EU from various sources around the world to avoid supply shocks, including in the event of a new Russian invasion of Ukraine” , US President Joe Biden and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in late January.

Qatar to the rescue of Europe?

Among these "various sources" courted by Westerners is also Qatar, the world's second largest exporter of liquefied gas (LNG), after the United States.

Even if his country is already at maximum production capacity and mainly supplies its Asian partners under long-term contracts, the Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani embodies a solution in the eyes of Westerners.

The leader was even received on January 31 at the White House and Joe Biden announced that he was granting Qatar the official status of "major ally outside NATO", as a sign of gratitude for its assistance during the evacuations from Afghanistan.

The American president had also indicated that gas had been discussed during this visit, the first by a Gulf leader since his election.

"The Emir and I have a lot to discuss. Security in the Gulf and more broadly in the Middle East. To ensure the stability of global energy production, to continue our work together to support the Afghan people and strengthen commercial cooperation and investment between our two countries,” said Joe Biden.

This is incredible revenge for the emirate, which had been ostracized from the regional and international scene by its Gulf neighbors between June 2017 and January 2021. It is also an opportunity for it to show itself as a partner essential for Westerners, despite criticism from NGOs on the impact of hydrocarbons on the environment and those aimed at the organization of the 2022 Football World Cup.

"This is unexpected for Qatar since even President Joe Biden made a statement to discuss the key role that the emirate can play in the energy sector, says Hasni Abidi. This is a strategic opportunity that can allow the emirate to position itself on the market, despite the technical constraints in terms of maritime transport of its gas."

But as for Algeria, it will be difficult for Qatar, in spite of its enormous reserves, to fill a possible closing of Russian tap.

"Doha has indicated that it has no spare production capacity so it can only supply gas which should have gone to Asian countries, such as India and Bangladesh, and which would be redirected with very high prices. towards Europe", analyzes Thierry Bros.

"The volumes that can be redirected [to other customers such as Europe, editor's note] represent around 10% to 15%," said Qatari Energy Minister Saad Cherida al-Kaabi.

But "Russia represents 30% to 40% of Europe's supplies" and "quickly replacing this type of volume is almost impossible", he continued at the summit of the Forum of Gas Exporting Countries in Doha.

Iranian gas in the waiting room

On the sidelines of this summit, the Iranian president was received by the Emir Tamim.

A visit during which he did not fail to insist on the "significant gas production and export capacities" of Iran, which shares with Qatar the 9,700 km² of a huge gas field called "South Pars" (3,700 in Iranian territorial waters and the rest to the Qataris, who call it "North Dome").

A hardly innocuous reminder as negotiations on Iranian nuclear power resumed in November in Vienna and in recent days, the United States, Germany, France and Iran have reported progress in the negotiations.

Talks whose challenge is to bring Washington back to the agreement, after its unilateral withdrawal in 2018 under the presidency of Donald Trump.

"The Americans and the Europeans are under pressure because of the war in Ukraine, which is able to relieve the pressure on the Iranians somewhat, since they could revise their demands on Tehran in order to accelerate the conclusion of this agreement, believes Hasni Abidi. A possible lifting of sanctions could allow Iran to play a very important role in the future given its invaluable gas reserves."

"Tehran is facing stubborn problems since it is sorely lacking in investments but also in facilities that only the lifting of sanctions can partially resolve, notes Thierry Bros. If Iran returns to the concert of nations, it will then be possible in the long term to make massive investments in this country and have access to large volumes of LNG."

And to conclude: "Despite the financial boon that this could represent for these countries, these avenues are not conceivable either in the short or medium term to replace Russian gas. Westerners are forced to think about what will be their gas supply for after 2030, since an energy policy is planned over a decade, and share their vision with these countries. And if they say to Algeria or even Iran, when the day comes, that they will need more gas, these countries will make the necessary investment to meet this demand and increase their market share."

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