Is the French army ready for a high intensity conflict?

• On the second day of Russia's declared war on Ukraine, Putin's army entered the capital, Kiev.

• This armed conflict at the gates of the European Union prompts us to reflect on our own military forces and defense capabilities. 

• Two specialists on the subject return for

   20 Minutes

  to the strengths and weaknesses of the French army.

The hypothesis of a war on French or even European soil is very unlikely, but the situation in Ukraine prompts reflection on our own armed forces.

Vladimir Putin brought the tanks and bombs to his neighbor, causing heavy casualties in Kiev.

A neighbor at the gates of the European Union, which shares borders with Poland, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia... Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also invited Europeans who know how to fight on Friday to go to Ukraine to repel the invasion of the Russian army.

Our file on the war in Ukraine

Several "frozen" conflicts could also erupt at any time, such as tensions between Greece and Turkey, alerted

MP Jean-Louis Thiérot, author of an information report on "new conflicts" submitted to the National Assembly in mid-February.

He believes that France “may have to engage in these conflicts, to protect its own interests”.

The habit of counterinsurgency

So if the war escalated until it triggered French intervention, would the country be ready to face an army like Putin's?

A high-intensity war, like what is currently happening in Ukraine, involves significant armaments and "lethal and destructive operations", explains to

Frédéric Coste, senior researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS) .

The French army has experience, present in many fields abroad, but, since its intervention in Afghanistan, it "does essentially counter-insurgency" fighting mainly against terrorist groups, as in the Sahel.

"In these situations you have total air control, which would not be the case against Russia, whose functioning we learned" through its recent interventions, particularly in Syria, develops Frédéric Coste.

But the French army is getting ready: “For the past ten years, institutional documents have highlighted the scenario of a high-intensity conflict.

The armies have been working on this hypothesis for four or five years, for example through exercises, ”he continues.

A strong army

“The role of an army is to be able to act at all times and against all circumstances, adds Olivier Kempf, director of the statistical firm La Vigie and researcher associated with the FRS, contacted by

.

Our army is unquestionably ready to manage alerts.

We have the most solid army of the European armies.

Everything then depends on the adversary.

Thus, in the event that we would go to war against Russia, according to this specialist, the army alone could not align comparable numbers: the men and women of the land operational force amount to 77,000 soldiers, according to the Department of Defense.

On the Ukrainian border alone, Russia has deployed some 100,000 soldiers, “without even committing all of its troops”.

The tricolor army is, moreover, engaged on many terrains outside that it cannot abandon overnight.

“At the time of the Cold War, we had a lot more means, regiments, tanks, planes, and we said that it was not enough.

We were spending 3% of GDP on the Defense budget,” adds the director of the Vigie.

In 2020, France devoted more than 2% of its national wealth to the benefit of its armies.

"We can then expect that over the next few years, the upgrading effort will continue with an increase in defense efforts," says Olivier Kempf.

"There is a risk of a rise to extremes between actors with nuclear weapons", also warns Frédéric Coste.

A lack of experience on hybrid warfare

In addition to combat, war is now also happening in other terrains.

It's called hybrid warfare.

It is defined by "the combined use of different types of means of action such as propaganda, cyberattacks, internal destabilization" in addition to conventional military operations, develops Frédéric Coste, but also aeromagnetics, space, economy, energy… Anything that can destabilize an enemy country.

If the French State has become aware of the need to train in these issues for fifteen years, according to Olivier Kempf, efforts are still to be made.

"France is part of the first division, but it's not PSG either," he illustrates.

Indeed, in terms of operations of counter-narrative, destabilization of society, France “knows how to do it but there is the question of experience and a question of ethics.

We will rather be in the defensive than trying to produce ourselves offensively, explains Frédéric Coste.

But we are preparing for hybridity.

The other problem is the internal context of France.

The expert thus underlines that with the long social crisis of "yellow vests", then the pandemic, "the confidence of the French in public speech has been eroded".

There is therefore a potential fertile ground for internal propaganda attacks and "we know that the Russians are very good at damaging the reputation of the adversary, they have been doing it for a very long time".

General awareness

As far as cyber is concerned, “the problem is not whether military targets are permeable to these attacks,” explains the specialist.

The problem is knowing whether the other targets are protected, such as the operators of vital installations, nuclear power plants, the electricity grid, hospitals... We know that the Chinese and the Russians have strategies in these areas, they have experience, they know how to do it.

While in France, "we have the devices, but we've never had to implement them on such a scale, we've never needed them, it's a leap into the unknown".

In the space field, a general awareness has been raised for several years.

In France, we are witnessing a “weaponization of space”, adds Olivier Kempf.

The Air Force also became the Air and Space Force in July 2019. Finally, there is also the so-called semantic war, as we have seen in the last fortnight between the United States and Russia.

“Vladimir Putin controls the information in his country and holds lunar speeches on a genocide or a denazification of Ukraine intended for his internal public opinion.

In information warfare, the main objective is to convince the adversary and convince public opinion, analyzes Olivier Kempf.

Leaders speak doublespeak to two different audiences.”

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