Louis de Raguenel 1:28 p.m., February 24, 2022, modified at 1:34 p.m., February 24, 2022

The French intelligence services consider that in the current situation, the Ukrainian army can hold out between 10 and 15 days against Russia.

Despite significant budgetary efforts since 2014, the Ukrainian army, which has 190,000 men, suffers from several shortcomings, starting with the air. 

TO ANALYSE

The war has begun.

Ukraine was attacked by Russia early Thursday morning.

Vladimir Putin took the world and Europe by surprise.

He addressed the population on television around 4 am French time and the Russian strikes on Ukraine began shortly after.

At least 40 soldiers and a dozen civilians were killed Thursday in the early hours of the invasion, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told reporters late in the morning.

Does the Ukrainian army have enough capacity to resist?

We take stock.

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The French intelligence services consider that in the current situation, the Ukrainian army can last between 10 and 15 days against Russia, not much more.

Despite significant efforts since 2014, the Ukrainian army - 190,000 men - has a military budget 15 times lower than that of Russia, even if this budget has tripled in ten years.

Opposite, there are 150,000 Russian soldiers, who also benefit from the surprise effect.

Figure to which must be added the 40,000 separatist militiamen of Donbass.

Russia can also take off at any time its 1,500 fighter planes, without fear of air combat since last night, the Russian army claimed to have destroyed the Ukrainian air bases and put "out of service" the anti-aircraft defense systems.

Ukraine alone, with its army which suffers from corruption problems, would in any case not have made the weight with its 120 combat planes, mainly Soviet-made MIG 29s.

Will France support Ukraine militarily?

Ukraine's problem is that it currently enjoys the moral support of the international community, but that is not enough to win a war.

Hence President Zelenski's incessant demands for increased military support from the United States and Europe.

Especially to have more ammunition.

For its part, France will undoubtedly increase its deliveries of defensive weapons, mainly anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles.

But at the general staff, we are aware that this aid will not be very useful because it comes too late.

As this general recognizes: delivering weapons is good, but you still have to know how to use them.

The problem is there: the Ukrainian army has not necessarily been trained to use them.