Chronology

The four months leading up to Russia's attack on Ukraine

Radars and other military equipment damaged after Russian strikes at a Ukrainian military installation near Mariupol, Ukraine, Thursday, February 24, 2022. AP - Sergei Grits

Text by: RFI Follow

3 mins

While the origins of Russia's invasion of Ukraine date back years, the past four months have been pivotal in the military escalation between the Kremlin and Kiev.

Recall of facts. 

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Last November, unusual troop movements on the Ukrainian border worried the Americans, who sent Williams Burns, former United States ambassador to Russia, to discuss with the Kremlin intelligence services.

It's November 2.

At the end of the month, the government in Kiev estimates that 92,000 Russian troops are massed on the country's borders and that Russian ballistic missiles are stored in the area.

From November 15, the United States reinforced its presence in the Black Sea and carried out exercises, a " 

 " for Vladimir Putin, on the phone with Emmanuel Macron.

In December, provocations and negotiations

In early December, Vladimir Putin announces his demands.

A guarantee that Ukraine will never join NATO, for which it is preparing two treaties, and the withdrawal of NATO forces from the countries of the former Soviet space.

This is not new: the Russian leader has always refused to have NATO forces on his borders.

At the same time, Joe Biden, President of the United States, is waving the threat of sanctions in the event of an invasion: the Nord Stream 2, hyper strategic for exporting Russian gas, could be used as a “ 

 ”.

🇺🇦 Crisis in Ukraine: Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin exchange warnings

► Biden threatened Putin in December with sanctions "like he has never seen" in the event of an attack on Ukraine.

►These sanctions would be a "colossal error", warned the Russian pdt.#RFIMatin pic.twitter.com/Xo67K0gEhV

– RFI (@RFI) December 31, 2021

About ten days later, Moscow deployed soldiers to Belarus for military exercises, and around Christmas, NATO reinforced its forces in the Eastern European countries that are members of the Alliance.

Washington places 8,500 soldiers on alert.

At that time, Moscow launched new maneuvers near Ukraine and in Crimea.

From January 14 to 16, a vast cyberattack, which Kiev attributes to Russian hackers, affects Ukrainian institutional, militant and media sites.

February, acceleration of talks

On February 2, after the announcement of Russian and Belarusian military exercises in mid-February, Washington redeployed 3,000 soldiers to Eastern Europe, and at the same time, the parties involved began a very intense diplomatic sequence.

Daily phone calls, trips to Ukraine and Moscow, which today could be described as a sequence of lying poker: Putin was blowing hot and cold, promising peace one day and war the next.

The statements of the United States, at that time, are very alarmist.

Five days later, still in this desire to blur the lines, Vladimir Putin said he was ready to compromise, after an interview with the French president... Then the Russian and Belarusian armies began large-scale maneuvers.

NATO then insisted on the real risk of a new armed conflict in Europe, and France announced possible military reinforcements in Romania.

In mid-February, the Kremlin announced a partial withdrawal of its forces from the Ukrainian borders, and explained that there was never any question of these forces remaining in place, but NATO and Washington said they saw no sign of de-escalation.

Ukraine crisis: “A movement of troops does not mean a withdrawal” https://t.co/VBpRXGYwT3 pic.twitter.com/vtF7NLb1RX

– RFI (@RFI) February 17, 2022

This is where things speed up.

Increased clashes unfold in eastern Ukraine from 17 February.

The Russian army increases its forces by 7,000 additional soldiers, American intelligence counts 150,000 along the border.

Two days later, the Ukrainian army announces the death of two of its soldiers.

Despite everything, a last glimmer of hope was born on Monday, February 21.

The Élysée announces that the Russian and American presidents have accepted the principle of a meeting.

A hope showered by the Kremlin, which denies and judges a premature meeting.

And then, the same day, Vladimir Putin gave an extremely offensive speech on Russian television in which he recognized the independence of the separatist republics of Donbass.

All the pawns are in place: the latter call on Russia for help on February 23, and the imminence of a Russian military intervention is no longer in doubt.

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• Ukraine

• Russia

• Belarus

• NATO

• United States

• Vladimir Poutine

• Joe Biden