China News Service, February 24 (Reporter Meng Xiangjun) History is always strikingly similar. Eight years of reincarnation, Putin is still Putin, Biden is still Biden, but Ukraine is no longer that Ukraine.
On the 24th local time, major news came out: Russian President Vladimir Putin has made a decision to conduct a special military operation in the Donbas region.
Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Sheng Jiapeng
The United States has emphasized that "no matter what the situation", it will not directly send troops to Ukraine.
Where will the conflict in eastern Ukraine go and how will it affect the country's future?
[Ukraine is further torn apart]
Geographically, Ukraine is bound to become the frontier for Russia and the West to "wrestle arms". It's just a matter of whether this contest will come sooner or later.
The intensification of the game of great powers has manifested itself in the most destructive way. The price Ukraine has paid is further tearing apart.
At 0:00 local time on the 24th, after being approved by the Verkhovna Rada (Parliament), Ukraine entered a 30-day "national state of emergency".
There are two exceptions - "Donetsk People's Republic" and "Luhansk People's Republic".
Data map: Women inspect the damage to the shelled house in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine.
Donetsk and Luhansk are special existences, and the Ukrainian authorities promised to give the two places a certain degree of autonomy.
The local area has deep historical ethnic and realistic economic ties with Russia, and 68% to 74% of the residents speak Russian.
In 2014, the pro-Russian Ukrainian President Yanukovych was overthrown in the "Orange Revolution" instigated by the West, and Crimea in southern Ukraine was put into Russia through the public; the separatist forces in Donetsk and Luhansk, self-declared "independence".
As an important outlet to the sea, the Crimean Peninsula is related to Russia's strategic maneuvering space in the Black Sea, while Donetsk and Luhansk in the east border parts of Russia.
Data map: Civilian forces in the Donetsk region withdraw anti-tank weapons from the region.
The Ukrainian authorities tried to retake the two places by force and reached a ceasefire at a heavy price of 13,000 deaths.
But then, the "Minsk Agreement" was broken continuously, and Russian dissatisfaction was accumulating.
After several rounds of negotiations with the West broke down, Putin recognized the "independence" of the two places and sent troops to "peacekeeping" in order to consolidate this political status quo.
The residents of the two places who have been displaced by the artillery fire for the past eight years retreated to Russia in large numbers and set off "fireworks of hope" for the future.
They slept in the dugout for a long time and wanted a peaceful night.
Data map: Ukrainian government forces shelled the Donetsk region, and local people took refuge in air raid shelters.
Ukraine may not have many options.
Although the Ukrainian parliament has sanctioned 351 Russian parliamentarians and weighed whether to cut off diplomatic relations with Russia, the huge economic losses caused by the flight of a large number of rich people due to panic have put the country in a dilemma.
Nor does it get the security guarantee it most wants - membership in NATO.
Whether it was the Crimea incident eight years ago or now, the United States and NATO, which instigated confrontation with Russia, do not intend to pay more for Ukraine.
The mirror of history is at hand.
Ukrainian President Zelensky has to downplay the possibility of a large-scale conflict with Russia while continuing to seek help from the West. Now, he faces calls to step down.
[“Whoever blinks first loses first”]
The New York Times pointed out that recently, the United States and Russia continue to play the game of "whoever blinks first" loses first.
The two sides "glared at each other" and put "maximum pressure" on each other in a series of confrontations such as politics, military affairs, and diplomacy, expecting the other side to make concessions first.
Although in the Western perspective, it was Russia who "blinked an eye" eight years ago and was subjected to large-scale sanctions, but in exchange for Crimea, Russia will help it consolidate its own strategic security as the top priority.
At the time, NATO did not choose to intervene directly. It stationed troops in Eastern European countries such as Poland and closely monitored Russian planes and ships.
In the past seven years, the size of the US Army in Europe has increased by 30%, the number of troops stationed in Europe has reached more than 60,000, and the number of armored vehicles has also tripled.
Data map: NATO holds military exercises in Poland.
As vice president of the Obama administration, Biden has experience with Russia in this regard.
After entering the White House, Biden took the baton further.
It has been eight years since it went from sanctions to sanctions. In response to Putin's "big move", the United States is still doing this.
To strengthen the garrison in Eastern Europe and provoke conflicts through "proxies", but avoid direct war between NATO and Russia, the Biden administration has drawn up a whole set of plans in terms of public opinion, diplomacy, economy and limited military actions.
This is a "conspiracy" that was publicized in advance, and it is not a new trick. Analysts pointed out that the "threat theory" of Russia, which the United States and its allies have vigorously exaggerated, is the best excuse for NATO to strengthen its military presence in Europe.
"We've cut off the Russian government's access to money from the West," Biden said.
He also vowed that if the Russian army "invades" Ukraine further westward, it "will pay a higher price" - that is, more severe sanctions.
Data map: US President Biden.
The first wave of U.S. sanctions will hit two defense-important Russian banks that control more than $50 billion in assets, one of which has been described as "the high-end piggy bank of the Kremlin."
The submarine gas pipeline "North Stream-2" from Russia to Germany has also become the target of sanctions.
Even though Putin has stated that he will continue to send natural gas to Europe, Germany has frozen the "Nord Stream-2" project, and Europe has also imposed sanctions on Russia.
Berlin's rejection of the "Nord Stream-2" project will make Europe a "colonial market" for American natural gas - said Panina, director of the Russian Institute of International Political and Economic Strategy.
Skyrocketing natural gas prices caused a "severe blow to Germans' pockets," while the United States began to rob Europe, giving its own economy a second chance to breathe against the backdrop of unusually high inflation.
【Where will the situation go? 】
Since 2011, the United States has imposed sanctions on Russia more than 100 times. The annual military expenditure of the US Department of Defense for the anti-Russian "European Shock and Deterrence Initiative" is 4 billion to 5 billion US dollars.
"Well, we're used to ... sanctions will be imposed no matter what, with or without reason," Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said.
Moscow has strong nerves and concerns the core interests of strategic security, and the West cannot shake its decision.
FILE PHOTO: Russian President Vladimir Putin delivers his State of the Union address.
"The (first round of U.S.) sanctions will hardly have any effect, either economically or politically," Miller, an analyst at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), told VOA.
The BBC asked, what if Moscow took only small steps against Ukraine?
Western countries are "not very united" in how to respond.
Some countries with closer ties to Russia may be reluctant to trigger major sanctions.
FILE PHOTO: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Since the 23rd, the diplomatic staff of the Russian embassy in Ukraine has been evacuated one after another, and the Russian side has also notified the closure of routes along the Ukrainian border.
Western media judged that the Russian army has entered the "fighting position".
But the United States reiterated that it would not send troops under any circumstances, even if Zelensky repeatedly pleaded.
Maloof, a former senior Pentagon security analyst, pointed out that Putin realized that "there is no basis for continuing negotiations."
"The New York Times" believes that "Putin is inviting the West to participate in the funeral of the post-Cold War order."
Eight years ago, Crimea fell into the arms of Russia; eight years from now, where will Ukraine go?
(over)