The Economist: What is hybrid warfare? Will Russia launch it in Ukraine?

This article in The Economist sheds light on the term "hybrid war", and whether it is the war that Russia is currently waging in Ukraine.

The British magazine pointed out that the term hybrid war is an old idea that acquires new dimensions in a globalized world, pointing to the mysterious appearance of “little green men” without a military reference in Crimea in 2014, after which the Russians occupied the peninsula in eastern Ukraine without firing a shot. As well as the seizure of pockets in the Donbass region by a variety of armed thugs and Russian forces claiming to be seeking independence.

She said these two events and the many mysterious acts attributed to Russia since then — from cyber attacks to assassinations abroad, election interference in the West, and now the threat to invade Ukraine — are categorized as forms of "hybrid warfare."

As for what this term means and how it developed, the magazine says that the trick and the surprise are as old as war itself, referring to an article titled “The Art of War,” which is believed to date back to the fifth century BC and is attributed to Sun Tzu - a Chinese general, military expert and philosopher who became famous for his His military genius he is famous for - he says that "to subdue the enemy without a fight is the height of skill".

The modern concept of hybrid warfare was popularized by Frank Hoffman, a former Marine and defense researcher, in a 2007 study analyzing the chaotic conflicts in Iraq, Afghanistan, and elsewhere, as tactics changed and the line between civilians and combatants blurred.

Hybrid warfare involves a range of different types of warfare, including conventional capabilities, tactics, irregular formations, and terrorist acts that include indiscriminate violence, coercion, and criminal chaos. This diversity of actions can be the work of the actor himself.

“Hybrid warfare involves a range of different types of warfare, including conventional capabilities, tactics, irregular formations, and terrorist acts that include indiscriminate violence, coercion, and criminal anarchy,” Hoffman wrote.

The magazine pointed out that Hoffman was thinking mainly of rebel groups and weak states such as Iran, and the Iranian-sponsored Hezbollah in Lebanon is one of the original models of the hybrid fighter, Khasib said.

In Hoffman's view, hybrid warfare is essentially a form of asymmetric warfare, in which the combatant seeks to avoid the strengths of a stronger opponent.

For their part, Russian strategists speak of "uneven war," a term popularized in a dystopian short story by Vladislav Surkov (one of President Vladimir Putin's closest advisers), to mean the messy struggle of "all against all."

The magazine added that the other supposed godfather of unconventional methods is General Valery Gerasimov, commander of the Russian armed forces. He wrote in an article published in 2103, "In the 21st century, we have witnessed a tendency to blur the lines between war and peace, and wars are no longer declared, and after they begin and continue according to an unfamiliar model.

She said that these words - written a year before Russia published its "little green men" in Crimea - had become considered a prophecy, except that General Gerasimov was applying the idea to the West, which he blamed for triggering the Arab Spring in 2011 and the "color revolutions." In the vicinity of Russia.

She noted that the prosperous country "in a matter of months or even days could turn into an arena of fierce armed struggle, become a victim of foreign interference, and plunge into the abyss of chaos, humanitarian disaster and civil war."

The newspaper concluded that the description of what is happening in Ukraine - according to researcher Elizabeth Brau of the American Enterprise Institute - is that the fierce fighting along the "Line of Control" between Ukrainian forces and the separatists is a "hybrid war".

Russian intimidation and subversion of the rest of Ukraine—including the threat of an invasion that shakes confidence and weakens the Ukrainian economy—continues to be considered a “grey zone enemy,” as Braw described it as “the use of hostilities outside of armed conflict to weaken a competing state, entity, or alliance.” Putin decided his risk was not enough and ordered his tanks to fight when it would become a "hybrid war" or perhaps just an outright "war".