In the shadow of the Ukraine conflict, a referendum has begun in Belarus, with which the regime of ruler Alexandr Lukashenko wants to have constitutional changes approved, but according to the opposition, it wants to "falsify popular support".

Election day is next Sunday.

As is customary in the country, an “early vote” has been running since Tuesday.

Belarusians report in online media how they are pressured to vote and threatened with losing their jobs.

You get told who is for the “bright future of the country”, vote for the changes.

On the other hand, those who want conditions "like in Ukraine", reported a reader of the exile medium "Zerkalo.io".

Frederick Smith

Political correspondent for Russia and the CIS in Moscow.

  • Follow I follow

This is the follow-up project to the smashed former flagship medium, Tut.by.

15 of its employees, including the editor-in-chief Marina Zolotova, are among the 1,078 political prisoners in Belarus.

This list is headed by the human rights project Vyazna (Spring), which itself provided seven of the prisoners, including the chairman, Ales Belyatsky.

Also on the list since mid-January is 68-year-old Nikolai Vitikov, who is being held in custody in the east Belarusian city of Gomel on charges of "fomenting social hostility".

The pensioner had criticized the reform project in a letter to a regime newspaper.

The editor-in-chief reported him, Witikov could face up to five years in prison.

Lukashenko also has Moscow to thank for staying in power

The work on the constitution project was Lukashenko’s reaction to the wave of protests against the falsification of the 2020 presidential elections. It was repeatedly said that the leadership in Moscow, whose political, financial and media support Lukashenko owes significantly to his retention of power, would use the reform to to penetrate the transfer of power in the neighboring country.

At least since Moscow's escalating struggle with the West, there has been no more talk of this.

Rather, according to observers, Lukashenko is trying to cement his power with the project.

The plans state that a person may only serve two five-year terms as president.

The restriction should not apply to the incumbent.

This is how Russia's president had it regulated in his own constitutional reform in 2020, which he had passed by referendum (for constitutional reasons there was no talk of a referendum);

69-year-old Vladimir Putin could now remain president until 2036, when he turns 84.

For the 67-year-old Lukashenko, after the Belarusian project 2035 would be over, then he will be 81.

However, even before the planned changes, Lukashenko had the constitution adjusted to his ideas. In 2004, for example, a term limit was lifted in order to take up a third term at the time.

It is now also planned that an “All-Belarusian People's Assembly” that is not directly elected will be given far-reaching powers;

the pensioner Witikow had particularly criticized this.

Its members include the President and former Presidents.

Lukashenko could be put at the head of the body “by secret ballot”.

But observers suspect that the ruler, given the example of Kazakhstan, where a "dual power" failed to the detriment of the former permanent ruler Nursultan Nazarbayev, does not want to take a comparable path.