Including sanctions that have not yet been imposed.. 3 US strategies to pressure Russia

WASHINGTON

- President Joe Biden and his administration reiterate that there is no intention of sending US forces to Ukraine in response to Russia's escalatory steps.

Well-informed American circles realize that even with the most extreme scenarios, which is Russia's occupation of all Ukrainian territory, this will not be sufficient or justification for a military confrontation with Russia.

At a time when Biden vowed to intervene if Russia threatens NATO member states, the US president adopts a three-dimensional strategy with which he hopes to stop the Russian escalation or leave it to its minimum.

This strategy includes imposing painful, but not comprehensive, sanctions on Russia, supporting the military presence in Ukraine's neighboring countries, and providing arms and direct military support to the Ukrainian forces.

A Ukrainian soldier carries a machine gun in a trench on the front line near the village of Travnev (Reuters)

First: Severe but “not comprehensive” penalties.

After several hours of deliberation, and not using the word "invasion" to classify the declaration of recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent republics, and the entry of Russian forces into them, the Biden administration began implementing its pledge to impose severe sanctions on Russia.

President Biden signed an executive order banning trade and investment between individual Americans and the two breakaway regions of eastern Ukraine, whose independence Russia has recognized.

It also includes a ban on "new investments" and a "prohibit the import into the United States, directly or indirectly, of any goods, services, or technology from the areas covered."

Biden then developed the sanctions system to include two Russian state-owned banks, which the Biden administration says are key to the Russian defense sector, and the US decision prevents the two banks from doing business in the United States or accessing its financial system.

Then 5 people described as part of the inner circle of President Vladimir Putin were personally punished, and restrictions were imposed on the dealings and accounts of Russia's national debt, which is estimated at billions of dollars.

Washington expanded its coordination in imposing sanctions with its European and Asian allies, and Germany decided to suspend the "Nord Stream 2" pipeline (the cost of its construction amounted to about 11 billion dollars), which provides it with gas from Russia through the Baltic Sea.

The European Union imposed sanctions on 27 Russian individuals and institutions, including a number of banks, limiting their access to European capital markets;

This cuts off access to funds from EU banks, and bans trade between the EU and the two rebel-held regions.

Washington's allies outside Europe, notably Australia, Canada and Japan as well, announced their own set of sanctions against Russian individuals and institutions, in line with a request from President Biden.

Lethal weapons provided by the United States to Ukraine in anticipation of any Russian invasion (Reuters)

Second: Supporting the US military presence in Ukraine's neighboring countries

About 70,000 US troops are permanently stationed in Europe since the end of World War II, under NATO arrangements.

Following Russia's annexation of Crimea (2014), Washington deployed 7,000 additional troops to European countries, most of them in Poland, which shares a border with Ukraine.

In response to the Russian escalation on the border with Ukraine over the past weeks, President Biden ordered the deployment of 8,500 additional troops to Eastern European countries, especially Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Romania.

After the Russian forces entered Donetsk and Lugansk regions, 800 American soldiers were transferred from Italy to the Baltic states, and Washington will transfer 8 F-35 fighter jets, in addition to 32 Apache helicopters, to the Ukrainian borders in the Baltic states and Poland.

Biden confirms that these US forces will not be used to fight in Ukraine.

Third: Extensive military support for Ukraine

Days ago, out of great caution, Pentagon officials said, Biden ordered the withdrawal of hundreds of American soldiers and officers who were inside Ukraine to train its armed forces in the use of American weapons.

The Pentagon spokesman, John Kirby, stated that the decision to withdraw the forces came “out of caution, and in the interest of their safety and security,” and that it falls within “the redeployment, and does not reflect a change in our determination to support Ukrainian forces, but we give a measure of flexibility to reassure our allies and prevent any aggression.

At the same time, Washington has increased its military support to Ukraine to help it counter what it sees as "Russian aggression."

And the military aid to Ukraine began in 2014, and its volume amounted to about 2.5 billion dollars, and Washington trained nearly 370 Ukrainian officers annually.

A Congressional Research Service study indicates that since the beginning of the year, Congress has allocated $115 million in military procurement to Ukraine, in addition to $250 million in military aid.

Prior to that, Congress approved legislation giving Ukraine half a billion dollars in emergency aid, and days ago Congress agreed to support Ukraine with weapons worth $300 million, of which $75 million is for offensive lethal weapons.

Other penalties

In his tweets on Twitter, Eddie Fishman, a former State Department official and economic affairs expert at the Atlantic Council, explained that the Biden administration still has many tools and economic sanctions in its arsenal, the most painful and most effective, and has not yet resorted to them, and may be used if Putin escalates his aggression against Ukraine. .

"There is a lot in the bag of the United States, including the ban on the export of sweeping technology, which has been discussed and not yet imposed, and the United States is coordinating with its European and Asian allies, to work together in this area, and these sanctions will be imposed if Russia escalates its aggression," Fishman said. ".

Financial experts believe that Washington has a powerful and effective weapon that it has not resorted to before, which is the "Swift" weapon that allows the implementation of electronic money transfers between thousands of global banks.

Experts say one of the painful options is to separate Russia from the international SWIFT system, which means blocking and withholding a large part of Russia's income in hard currencies that it gets in return for selling oil, gas and the rest of its other exports.

This would paralyze Russia's economy and trade dealings with most of the world's countries.

Russia is so reliant on the SWIFT mechanism to export oil and gas that in 2019 its prime minister, Dmitry Medvedev, said blocking it would be a "declaration of war".