What is the impact of Russia's recognition of the independence of eastern Ukraine?

(International Observation) What is the impact of Russia's recognition of the independence of eastern Ukraine?

　　China News Agency, Beijing, February 22, Question: What is the impact of Russia's recognition of the independence of eastern Ukraine?

　　China News Agency reporter Ma Jiajia

　　On the evening of February 21, local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed an order on the recognition of the "Donetsk People's Republic" and the "Luhansk People's Republic", as well as a treaty of friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance between Russia and the two "republics" respectively. .

Subsequently, Putin issued a presidential decree instructing the Russian armed forces to enter the Donbas region to maintain peace.

The ongoing tension in Ukraine has suddenly escalated again.

In this regard, Chinese experts on international issues pointed out in an interview with a reporter from China News Agency that Russia's move at this time was a "breaking" behavior based on the consideration of the European security architecture. Since then, all parties in the international community have been wrestling over the Ukraine issue. will continue.

FILE PHOTO: Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Why did Russia "shot" at this time?

　　Recently, the relationship between Russia and Ukraine has continued to be tense, and the two sides have deployed a large number of military personnel and weapons in the border areas of the two countries.

Regarding the timing of Russia's "shot", Yang Cheng, a professor at Shanghai International Studies University and executive director of the Shanghai Institute of Global Governance and Regional and Country Studies, believes that there are mainly the following considerations: First, as Putin mentioned in his national televised speech, Russia is diligently seeking, Through negotiations with the United States and NATO on the European security architecture, the acquisition of its own security concerns and the confirmation of equal partner status have not made any progress.

The United States and the West do not want to solve the problem as quickly and in a package as Russia wants, and then sign a written and legally binding security agreement with Russia.

　　Secondly, the United States, the United Kingdom and other countries kept releasing information such as "Russia's invasion of Ukraine" and its timetable, forcing Russia to passively "self-innocence" again and again. This is a test of Russia's patience, and the Putin authorities are unwilling to Give up the agenda-setting initiative.

　　Third, there have actually been many exchanges of fire in eastern Ukraine. If Russia is limited by the "invasion" of the United States and NATO and does nothing, the eastern Ukraine will lose its strategic value as a buffer zone between Russia and Ukraine and Russia and NATO.

　　Fourth, as revealed by Russian Prime Minister Mishustin's speech at the security conference on the 21st, Russia has fully assessed various scenarios in the past few months, and Russia can withstand the consequences of Western sanctions.

In other words, under the circumstance that the United States and NATO do not directly participate in the war, and the relations between Russia and the West are already extremely bad, Russia has no worse losses.

Data map: The streets of Kiev, the capital of Ukraine.

　What does Russia's move mean?

　　Russia made this move, and relevant parties responded immediately, increasing the risk of local escalation of the situation in the region.

Yang Cheng believes that in the face of the public pressure that "Russia will invade Ukraine" has been released by the West, Russia hopes to change the unfavorable situation of passively responding to the war of words since the beginning of February by "breaking the situation".

　　Recognizing the independence of the two places first means that the negotiation between Russia, the United States and the West on the European security architecture is no longer its top priority.

Secondly, this shows Russia's strategic will to never give in, but it does not mean that Russia refuses to continue to engage and communicate with the United States and Western countries.

　　Yang Cheng also pointed out that, in fact, Russia's move may not be fully realized, and the United States and the West are less likely to make major compromises based on their domestic political correctness needs.

　　In fact, the situation in the Donbas region is complicated, with some Ukrainian government troops stationed and a large number of anti-government armed forces.

In this regard, Yang Cheng pointed out that the Russian army will be stationed to carry out peacekeeping missions, and the anti-government armed forces are likely to exchange fire with the Ukrainian military.

The likelihood of further direct military conflict in the region has increased.

　How much does it affect all parties?

　　U.S. President Biden responded by signing an executive order on the 21st, requesting that Americans be prohibited from conducting new business activities in two regions of eastern Ukraine.

Prior to this, Western countries had been pressuring Russia, claiming that if Russia invaded Ukraine, it would impose "tougher sanctions than those during the Crimea crisis in 2014."

　　In this regard, Yang Cheng believes that Russia's move is a dangerous move.

On the one hand, Russia has failed to solve the security problems brought about by NATO's eastward expansion, its strategic security goals have not been achieved, and a new European security architecture has not been formed; on the other hand, sanctions from the United States and its Western allies will follow; On the one hand, Russia's previous relations with traditional European countries such as France and Germany will inevitably be affected.

　　For the United States, the primary purpose is not to compromise with Russia but to form a more united West by negotiating ineffectively with Russia on the European security architecture and using its public opinion advantage to shape the discourse of Russia’s invasion at any time.

　　In Washington's view, the degree of reconciliation between the United States and Russia depends on the position of NATO and the EU's Central and Eastern European member states.

Under the circumstance that Russia's three security concerns cannot be fully accepted, it is better to focus on building a Western alliance instead of reluctantly normalizing relations with Russia.

Therefore, the United States wants to integrate Europe by "forced war", so as to achieve the goal of uniting the West.

　　Yang Cheng said frankly that after Russia recognized the independence of eastern Ukraine on the basis of the original administrative boundaries of the Donbass, Russia retained the "big move" to eliminate Ukraine's military power in the eastern region of Ukraine and the possible follow-up. It is not easy for the West to deal with it. .

How the overall situation develops, there are still many variables, which need to be further observed.

(over)