Ukraine crisis.. Did Biden breathe a sigh of relief after Putin's recognition of Lugansk and Donetsk?

WASHINGTON

- Russian President Vladimir Putin's announcement that his country would recognize the independence of the breakaway regions of Donetsk and Luhansk Ukraine came as a big surprise to Washington.

This prompted voices to demand the need to impose immediate, strict sanctions on Moscow, while others saw the opposite, considering that the Russian move does not amount to an "invasion of Ukraine" and that the administration of President Joe Biden should not rush to impose broad sanctions.

Over the past two months, the US administration's staff, based on what is said to be confirmed intelligence, have reiterated President Putin's intent and decision to invade Ukraine.

Some US intelligence estimates have stated that the human cost of the conflict will be very large in light of the possibility that it will cause the deaths of between 25,000 and 50,000 civilians, between 5 and 25,000 Ukrainian soldiers, and between 3 and 10,000 Russian soldiers.

It could also cause an influx of 1-5 million Ukrainian refugees, mainly to neighboring Poland.

Hence, some breathed a sigh of relief in Washington after Russia's decision, especially among those who expected the worst.

escalation and offense

The various American circles agreed to classify the Russian recognition of the illegal act under international law, considering that it has further complicated the diplomatic course of the Ukraine crisis, and the real question in Washington has become what will Russia do next?

Before Russia announced its recognition of the independence of the separatist regions of Donetsk and Lugansk, Sergei Radichenko, a Russia expert and professor at Johns Hopkins University, stressed that the possibility of Russia's invasion of Ukraine is still great, but it is not inevitable.

In an interview with Al-Jazeera Net, Radichenko indicated that it is clear that Russian President Putin is using brute force to extract political concessions, whether in the general sense to impede the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), or specifically in relation to the Minsk agreements that he hopes will begin Kiev in its implementation, as he put it.

"The danger facing Putin is that the longer he waits for his action, the less credible he becomes, but the invasion is fraught with huge political and economic costs for Russia," Raddenko said.

While Anatole Levin, an expert on Asian affairs at the Quincy Institute in Washington, considered that the Russian danger has eliminated the diplomatic track towards the "second Minsk process" to resolve the conflict over the Donbass.

He stated that it is fair to note that "the Ukrainian government has long made it clear that it does not intend to implement the provisions of the Minsk agreement on the autonomy of Donbass, and it is fair to recall that the West has made it clear that it does not intend to pressure Ukraine to do so."

Limited penalties

The US administration did not use the term "invasion" to classify what happened, as a senior official confirmed in a press briefing that "Russia's entry into the Donbass region in Ukraine is not a new invasion because it has had troops (there) since 2014."

He added that Russia has had troops in Donbass for the last 8 years, and therefore there are no new comprehensive sanctions yet.

For her part, Republican Representative Liz Cheney called on the Biden administration and its allies to impose the maximum possible sanctions, and said in her tweet, "Russia has invaded Ukraine, the Biden administration and our allies must impose a full set of stifling sanctions now."

Quincy Center expert Levin Antoll disagreed with Cheney's assessment, tweeting that "so far, what Russia has done does not amount to an invasion; but it could, of course, be a prelude to an invasion. Everyone should work to prevent it."

So far, it falls well short of invasion;

but it could of course be the prelude to invasion.

We must go on working to prevent that.

https://t.co/3QZJ7MAUyL

— Anatol Lieven (@lieven_anatol) February 22, 2022

While Michael McFaul, the former US ambassador to Moscow and one of the most important hardliners against President Putin, called for not to use phrases used by Putin.

"When you describe the Russian soldiers now invading Ukraine as 'peacekeepers', even when you use quotes, you are using language that Putin wants you to use, call it what it is (invading forces)," he tweeted.

When you describe Russian soldiers invading Ukraine right now as "peacekeepers", even when you use quotation marks, you are using language that Putin wants you to use.

Call it what it is — an invasion.

— Michael McFaul (@McFaul) February 21, 2022

For his part, Ivo Halder, former US ambassador to NATO and president of the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations, called for sanctions to be imposed immediately. Ukraine's military ability to defend itself.

As for the Republican Senator and a member of the Senate Intelligence Committee, Lindsey Graham accused the Biden administration of weakness and weakness, and said, "I am ready, willing and able to work with the Biden administration to impose the largest possible number of crushing sanctions on the Russian economy. The question is, does the Biden administration have the will and determination to do so?" .

ambiguity and question

But the real question is what will Russia do next?

This Russian measure in itself does not change anything in practice.

These areas of Donbass have been separated from Ukraine with Russian support since 2014, and sporadic fighting has continued since then, resulting in the deaths of 14,000 people from various sides, and Western sanctions have already been imposed to punish Russia for this since 2014.

So far, the Russian recognition of the independence of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions is completely different from the scenario of the complete invasion of Ukraine that Washington and NATO have warned of, and which was included in a bipartisan Congressional bill that includes severe sanctions, known as the "Defense of the Sovereignty of Ukraine" law, which aims to deter Russia from invading Ukraine.

In an interview with Al-Jazeera Net, Professor William Woolforth, a professor at Dartmouth University and an expert on US foreign policy toward Russia, indicated that it is highly unlikely that the step taken by Russia to recognize separatist entities inside Ukraine and conclude treaties with them is the end of the story.

"It also seems unlikely that Presidents Putin and Biden will meet anytime soon," Professor Wolfforth added.

Biden: Washington will not fight in defense of Ukraine (Reuters)

limited penetration

On the 19th of last month, President Biden spoke in a seemingly acceptable manner about the possibility of a "limited" Russian incursion into eastern Ukraine, which sparked a lot of controversy.

The White House was forced to correct the president's statement that any entry of Russian soldiers into Ukraine would be considered an invasion.

Hence, looking at what happened on Monday as much less than the invasion may be the appropriate option for Washington, especially with the reluctance of some allies, such as Germany, to strongly condemn the Russian threat.

On the other hand, the Russian move will represent only a limited escalation in the conflict that has been going on in the Donbass since 2014.

Therefore, it is still important for Washington to have in the hand the card of the threat of imposing comprehensive sanctions in order to deter Russia from a comprehensive invasion of Ukraine.

If Washington imposes full sanctions now, it will have no more economic ammunition to use if Russia moves toward a full-fledged invasion of Ukraine, as it will have nothing to lose by extending the war.

As President Biden has declared several times that Washington "will not fight in defense of Ukraine," the diplomatic space does not appear to have actually been closed yet.