The last hopes of a diplomatic solution seem to have flown away.

On Monday, Russia recognized the independence of the pro-Russian separatist territories in Donbas, in eastern Ukraine (Donetsk and Luhansk).

In the aftermath, Putin ordered the Russian army to deploy there, officially for a “peacekeeping” operation.

Ukraine and the West immediately denounced a "violation of Ukrainian sovereignty" and are preparing sanctions.

But for Brett Bruen, in charge of interagency coordination at the National Security Council under Barack Obama in 2014, “the time for tough statements and even economic sanctions is over.

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By sending the Russian army into the separatist territories of eastern Ukraine, has Putin crossed the Rubicon?

We are in the worst case scenario.

Putin is getting bolder and more brash than some alarmists predicted.

If you listen to his speech on Monday, he clearly sees Russia exercising control over large territories in Eastern Europe and does not intend to stop at Ukraine.

It is a radical reorientation of the international order of recent decades.

We are entering a dangerous period for the stability and security of Europe.

What is the logical continuation of the escalation?

Russian so-called peacekeeping forces have a heavy history of being a cover for violent repression.

We saw it in Chechnya and Syria, in particular.

The leaders of these separatist republics will ask for military assistance not only for the areas they control, but probably also to conquer other portions controlled by Ukraine further west.

For Putin, this is the perfect pretext to invade the rest of Ukraine, explaining that he was invited by these so-called independent states.

Are we heading for a massive invasion of Ukraine and an attack on Kiev, as Biden fears?

We will undoubtedly see a gradual escalation.

The smartest strategy for Putin is to go bit by bit in an attempt to split the Western alliance.

NATO will have to stay united.

The current period is critical and the decisions of Biden, Macron and other leaders will determine how far Putin dares to go.

Can the Western sanctions in preparation deter Putin?

No.

The time for tough statements and even economic sanctions is over.

Clearly, Putin does not understand this language.

We must send him the message that he cannot violate the borders of other countries with complete impunity.

Alternatives must be found.

Like sending more military support to Ukraine and neighboring countries.

Not in a combat role, which has been ruled out, but intelligence, training, planning and logistics.

And we must also press where it hurts on the Russian domestic front: declassifying certain intelligence elements and exposing Putin's corruption.

We saw with Navalny and protests last year that there is growing dissatisfaction in Russia.

Apart from Ukraine, which other countries are threatened?

Putin suggested Monday that other countries of the former USSR or satellites should come back under Moscow's fold, such as Romania, Estonia, the other Baltic countries and even Poland.

Putin's modus operandi in South Ossetia, Abkhazia or Georgia has always been to get a foothold in the country and use that presence to destabilize and delegitimize those governments.

That does not mean that he will mobilize a vast invasion force like in Ukraine, but he will seek by all means to exert his influence on the region.

A possible Putin-Biden summit negotiated by Macron was mentioned on Monday morning.

Can it still take place?

This summit should not be considered.

We cannot reward Putin when he has just fundamentally violated international law.

President Macron has tried a last-ditch effort at diplomacy, but Putin is not interested.

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Ukraine – Russia conflict: Putin orders his army to enter the separatist territories of Ukraine

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Conflict Ukraine – Russia LIVE: Kiev denounces a violation of its sovereignty… At the UN, Russia says it remains “open to diplomacy”…

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