Putin fiddling with nuclear weapons... Russia's fear of Ukrainian hostage? [Washington Insights]

Putin vs Biden attending ICBM nuclear missile exercise "The goal is to occupy Kiev"...

Russian invasion imminent

The importance of the White House presidential briefing can be roughly judged by how late President Biden is.

In briefings that want to promote, the president, who is in a hurry, usually comes out on time to give a speech, but in reality there is not much to cover in the article.

However, the more serious the content, the later the president appears, as was Biden's two public speeches last week.

He was quite late on both occasions, so it was possible to guess that the discussion of the Ukraine issue continued until the very last minute.

In his address to the nation, Biden spoke with his whole body that 'war was imminent' in the highest tone any president of the United States could possibly be.

Biden appears to be a bit savvy, and it's been accepted that it's usually not meaningful for a president like this to warn in such a strong tone.

In particular, he said, "I am convinced that Putin has decided to invade," and that there is "evidence" seems to contain a warning that he is mobilizing all his intelligence assets and grasping all movements around Putin.

Russia's goal is to take over Kiev, the Ukrainian capital of 2.8 million innocent citizens.

Biden not long ago pointed out the date of the Russian invasion (not to the press, but to the European leaders), and this time he even talked about Putin's decision to invade, but in fact, if it's wrong, it's laughable.

However, this kind of information opening can be interpreted as an intention to prevent war, even if it becomes a joke.

As White House National Security Adviser Sullivan said in a press conference the other day, unlike the Iraq war, which discloses information to invade other countries, this time it is an information war to prevent the Ukraine war, so it is difficult to evaluate it on the same line.

Once a war breaks out, so many people can die, so I have to say that if you can catch even the straw and stop it, it's good to do it.

In fact, it is unheard of for such a large amount of confidential information to be disclosed, and experts in the United States are unanimous.

The strategy of the master of information warfare is to understand Putin's strategy in advance and reveal it to the world to take away that power, but it seems that it has been successful to some extent so far.

Although the US action may have heightened the sense of war threat, putting Putin hesitant in any way is an achievement in itself.

Putin, who had a strong momentum in the information warfare, pulled out a nuclear weapon as a card that could turn the tide in one shot.

Like his own men, he accompanied the Belarusian president to observe tactical nuclear weapons training.

In fact, during the Cold War era, the fear that the human race could be turned to dust in an instant was caused by nuclear confrontation, and it served as an opportunity to remind Americans of the fear that they had completely forgotten.

It was clear that Russia, which was threatening Ukraine, was planning to send a warning letter to the United States, which was suddenly shut down, saying, 'You can get hurt too if you do it.'

In a question-and-answer session following President Biden's Friday speech, questions about Putin's observation of nuclear tactical exercises were raised, and Biden said, "Putin will not be considering using nuclear weapons." It's hard to read Guernsey Putin's mind."

Russia is almost ready to invade Ukraine.

The number of troops besieging Ukraine has increased to 190,000, and even pro-Russian residents living in the Russian rebel areas around Donbas have migrated to Russia as refugees.

The joint exercise in Belarus will end in 20 days, but it was announced that the Russian army would stay longer.

Now, if Putin really raises the flag, it could be a terrible thing for Russian troops to push Ukraine into the land, sea and air.

Former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Pfeiffer Explains Why Russia Is At A Corner?

In the meantime, there have been many excellent analyzes and prospects for the Ukraine crisis in Korea, and it has been a great help in understanding the current situation.

However, it is more important to have a detailed understanding of the position of the United States, one of the parties to the Ukraine crisis.

These days, former US ambassadors to Ukraine are appearing in the US media, and among them, I interviewed former US ambassador to Ukraine Stephen Piper.

Former Ambassador Piper studies European affairs at Stanford University.

The column on the Ukraine crisis that he posts on his university research institute's web page is very helpful in understanding the current situation, so we asked him to hire him.

Ex-ambassador Piper replied that he had no time because he had too many schedules, but after sending e-mails a few times earnestly, he agreed to take some time (actually, in the interview, I asked everything I wanted to ask).

I think the Ukraine crisis can be compared to a hostage play.

Russia is taking Ukraine hostage and threatening to harm its neighbors, but the demand is 'to ensure my safety'.

A bit outrageous for the demands of a man with a ghastly hostage play.

You say no one will harm you, but Putin insists, 'I don't need it all and put it in writing to ensure my safety'.

I was curious as to why Russia had such a personal fear, so I asked a number of questions.

The main contents of the interview with Pfeiffer are summarized in Q&A.

= Knowing the decisions of the Kremlin is sometimes very difficult.

Putin has a very small inner circle.

He and he often hide their ultimate goals from the outside, so he often makes misjudgments.

First of all, the Kremlin would have been surprised to see the Ukrainian government holding up fairly well.

When Russia first started doing this, he would have thought that military intimidation would yield concessions.

But that wasn't it.

Even watching the United States and NATO unite now, you are probably perplexed.

This is coming out a lot wilder than the Kremlin thought.

"Bundle allies with a worst-case strategy"...

Why did the US wage an information war?

= Actually, after the news that he had nailed the invasion, I spoke with incumbent State Department officials.

But all of them said that they never mentioned the date.

He said that he expressed it to the extent that it could just happen in the near future.

But perhaps the date of the 16th was known to the world as a scoop of the actual Politico, as the reporter figured out what someone said while pretending to be the 16th and reported it with a specific date.

As I have heard from several State Department officials, they are seriously concerned as they look into the military build-up around Ukraine.

In particular, the increase in military power over the past 36 hours has been very worrisome, so I was very concerned that it was an action to invade Ukraine.

= It can be said that the Biden government is doing very well in the information war.

Now the situation is very interesting.

This is because, as in the past, there are all kinds of contents that are kept confidential and cannot go outside.

This action is preventing Russia from creating an excuse for an invasion.

Also, the U.S. government was able to publicize Russia's military build-up in the Ukraine area.

So now, if someone provokes, I made it clear that it was Russia.

It also has no choice but to deliver a bloody message, in order to get Americans in Ukraine to leave quickly for their own safety.

Also, this strategy is a worst-case approach.

The worst-case approach is a very clever approach.

In doing so, the United States was able to unite its European allies.

Since they assumed the worst, everyone is trying their best to convince the Kremlin not to go to war.

= Of course, the start of the US response was too slow.

But the past month and a half have been really good.

It showed that Russia could negotiate if it wanted to, and at the same time made it clear that if it invaded, it would pay the price with strong sanctions.

And it didn't just wait for the invasion.

The Biden government continued to supply the Ukrainian government with defensive weapons.

It helped the Ukrainians defend themselves in a better situation.

It was because he saw that he could break the will of Russia to attack.

Another important thing is that they did a good job in managing the discussion and collaboration process.

Washington made calls to European countries every day.

These measures were very coordinated, and the reaction was very harsh.

This collaborative process was able to tie Washington and major European cities together.

Belarusian Russian troops must return to relieve tensions...

"NATO will be aiming at Russia's side"

= The short-term goal is to prevent a Russian invasion.

This means withdrawing the army.

Russian troops training in Belarus come from the Far East.

They have traversed 7,000-8,000 kilometers, and only when they return to their bases can it be seen as a sign of easing of tension.

The US cannot accept Russia's call not to expand NATO again.

In countries to which NATO has joined since 1997, withdrawing its military base is no longer acceptable.

But we are ready to discuss disarmament negotiations, arms control, crisis reduction, and trust-building discussions.

The main question here is whether Russia can accommodate this when its core needs are not being met.

= President Biden and the NATO chief have already said that.

US and NATO forces do not enter Ukraine to fight.

The role of the US military in Poland can be viewed in two ways.

First, it is to send a message to the neighboring countries of Russia, such as the Baltic States and Romania, that we are here for you.

The strengthening of NATO forces also has a similar message to neighboring countries.

And the other is a message to the Kremlin.

We do not fight in Ukraine, but it sends a strong message that we will definitely fight to defend NATO.

So the German army went north of Lithuania, the British army went to Estonia, and the French army went to Romania.

All of these actions are aimed at Russia.

More troops will be deployed on the eastern flank.

This is an important signal for Moscow.

= That is the crux of the matter.

Russia wants to have vito power in Ukraine's foreign policy.

That is the difference between Western countries and Russia.

The West believes that Ukraine has sovereignty and that they can decide foreign policy.

But Russia thinks it can put Ukraine into her satellite.

Of course, now NATO countries are not enthusiastic about accepting Ukraine as a member.

But it is clear that NATO is not closing the door to expansion.

Especially under pressure from Russia, they do not do so.

Russia should know that no one is pushing Ukraine to join NATO.

"Putin's Paranoia with 19th Century Thinking"...

Why did the Ukrainians turn their backs?

= Interesting question.

Russia has the most nuclear weapons in the world.

Conventional weapons are also great.

But Russia still has 19th-century thinking.

I think Russia and the West need a buffer zone.

But neither NATO country has any intention of attacking Russia again.

For this reason, NATO countries have steadily reduced their military power since the 1990s.

There were about 2,000 tanks in the German army towards the end of the Cold War.

But now it's less than 200.

This reduction in military power is because NATO is not intended to attack Russia.

Nevertheless, Russia is creating a story that NATO is trying to attack Russia, NATO is Russia's enemy and is trying to change the regime.

I think this is, in part, paranoid.

Putin sometimes says so much nonsense and says so much about it that he believes it.

= It is very difficult to read Putin's mind.

The Kremlin defines this as a NATO-Russian problem.

The concern is that Ukraine will make the decision to irretrievably deviate from Moscow's orbit and go to the West.

But Russia's decision over the past eight years has been an illegal annexation of Crimea, which killed 14,000 people while supporting rebels in the Donbas region.

Such a policy is what makes Ukraine decide to avoid Russia and go further west.

Take a look at the poll.

In 2014, support for NATO membership was around 30%.

But now it's 59%.

It's all because Russian policy is wrong.

Russia says it will come to Ukraine, but the policy is in the exact opposite direction.

With military action, Russia can no longer visit Ukraine.

The Russian army will be able to overwhelm the Ukrainian army.

But Ukraine will fight.

Russia must fight guerrilla warfare.

= I went to Kiev two weeks ago.

I met several people there, and they were all very determined.

Last week I spoke to a friend in Kiev, and they said that even if they offered to do small firearms training because there is so much support from people right now, they said that they would have to wait two weeks.

Russia has awakened the national identity of the Ukrainians over the past eight years.

The hostility towards the Russian government is considerable.

Even if Russia invades by mistake, the Ukrainians will resist fiercely, and Russia will meet strong resistance.

Russia underestimated this part too much.

Russia can win, but it will come at a very high price.

It cannot be compared to what the Soviet Union experienced in Afghanistan.

= The current situation is not what Russia expected.

Ukraine did not panic.

It was not Russia's plan for the West to show unity as well.

The US and Europe are preparing very painful sanctions.

In addition, NATO forces were greatly strengthened in Eastern Europe.

This would not have happened had it not been for Russia to engage in such armed protests.

= It can be said that it is an achievement that Russia has given such a threat and has had a significant impact on the Ukrainian economy.

The Kremlin would be happy to make something difficult for Ukriana.

And there are results of training itself.

It has proven that such long-distance maneuver training is possible.

But if you get something, there is a cost.

I think the cost of Russia far outweighs the outcome.

What do US sanctions on Russia look like?

“We will ask our allies for the widest possible sanctions.”

= The United States and its allies in Europe, Britain and Canada will all be united to impose significant sanctions.

It would be quite painful.

Sanctions targeting individual banks will force people to leave Russia.

Trading itself becomes very difficult.

Even if the Russian chaebols have a lot of money, they cannot move that money.

In the long run, it will be impossible to export semiconductors to Russia.

In an information-based economy, demand for semiconductors is high, but it is difficult to obtain them.

Sanctions against individuals related to the Kremlin are likely.

Biden, speaking with German Chancellor Scholz, said with great confidence that a Russian invasion could close Nordstream 2 (a natural gas pipeline from Russia to northern Germany through the Baltic Sea, before it even started).

Although Scholz did not explicitly say it, Biden's confidence was that he saw the power of sanctions to kill gas pipelines.

Sanctions alone will not prevent Russian aggression, but the Kremlin could be one of the factors that could prevent aggression.

Of course, the biggest threat is the death of Russians.

I don't think Putin cares too much about the deaths of Russian soldiers.

But if the sons, brothers and husbands of the Russian people return to their hometowns in corpses pockets, that will affect public opinion.

= When the invasion begins, Washington will ask its allies to join Russia in sanctions.

You may have already prepared your contact information.

Washington's willingness to impose the most extensive sanctions on Russia is clear.

We are now living in 2022, and in Europe it is unacceptable for Russia to do this to its neighbors that they are not friendly with them.

= Back in October of last year, the White House had identified China as a strategic challenge, hoping Russia would just keep quiet.

But Russia did not stand still.

If the White House can manage this crisis well and do the job of tying allies together, that wouldn't be a bad message for China.

Ukraine can't join NATO and can't even get close to Russia...

Living as an independent country between great powers

Interviewing Ambassador Pfeiffer, I was able to realize that the gap in thinking between the US and Russia is huge.

While Russia's determination to get a solid security guarantee in writing seems clear, the US is unlikely to give up Ukraine, if any.

In this process, Ukraine, which cannot join NATO or even close to Russia, will inevitably become the biggest victim.

A person like JD Benz, who is the author of Hillbilly Elegy and who frequently appears on Fox these days to become a Republican senator, is openly raising his voice as to why we should be concerned about the Ukraine crisis.

In the Trump era, Putin may have ravaged Ukraine to his heart's content without paying much attention to it.

Even in the Biden-era America, it seems clear that NATO will protect our family, but it is also clear that there is nothing more.

The U.S. position that the U.S. will impose sanctions on Ukraine held hostage only if Russia harms it is frustrating to see in Ukraine.

So it made more sense to me that President Zelensky poured out his screams at the Munich Security Conference today about the meaning of sanctions after Russia occupied everything.

The situation in Ukraine vividly shows how difficult it is to live with dignity as an independent country among superpowers.