Eastern Ukraine has witnessed violence since last Thursday, amid fears of a Russian attack, and although Moscow has announced several military withdrawals from areas near the Ukrainian border and from the Crimea peninsula annexed by Russia, the West remains cautious.

According to the French magazine L'Obs, the dialogue of deafness continues between the United States, which still fears a Russian attack on Ukraine "in the coming days", and Russia, which rules out these accusations despite the escalation of bombing in eastern Ukraine.

To shed light on this thorny issue, Lopes has summarized what is known so far about her in 4 questions.


First: Who was the first to start the bombing?

The Ukrainian army and pro-Russian separatists are again accusing each other of continuous bombing in the east of the country, Ukrainian authorities have reported 20 ceasefire violations by separatists overnight, while pro-Russian rebels have reported 27 bombings by the Ukrainian army.

Last Thursday, a school was bombed in a small government-controlled town in the east, and there were 20 children and 18 adults inside the school.

Monitors from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe also reported a significant increase in shootings on the Eastern Front.

Second: Did Russia withdraw, or is what happened just a redeployment?

Western diplomats remain skeptical about the veracity of Moscow's announcement that it will withdraw some of its forces from the border with Ukraine.

On Friday, French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian questioned whether the announced departure of Russian forces near Ukraine were in fact real withdrawals.

Russia had announced yesterday - as it has done in recent days - that it would withdraw the tanks deployed near the Ukrainian border and the grenade launchers in the Crimea.

Le Drian reiterated that "everything is possible today, whether the massive intervention of Russian forces on Ukrainian soil or diplomatic dialogue."


Third: Does Washington have any evidence of the invasion scenarios?

At a time when Russia expelled the second man from the United States embassy in Moscow, the confrontation between the two sides took a severe turn at the United Nations, as US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken urged - before the Security Council - the Russians to stop the march towards war, as was US President Joe Biden. He had previously said, "All indications that we have show that the Russians are ready to enter Ukraine," considering that an attack is possible "in the coming days."

Russia has also deployed - according to US intelligence - more than 150,000 soldiers and their equipment in the vicinity of Ukraine.

Blinken described in precise detail, but without providing evidence, what he called the catastrophic scenario of an imminent attack on Ukraine, indicating that the beginning would be to fabricate a pretext that would open the door to Moscow by "declaring the necessity of revenge."

Then, according to Blinken, "communication will be cut off and cyber attacks will be carried out aimed at paralyzing key Ukrainian institutions."

"After that, tanks and soldiers will advance to strike key targets that have already been identified," Blinken added, without providing evidence to support what he said, including the Ukrainian capital, Kiev.

And Pentagon spokesman John Kirby claimed - earlier - that Moscow was preparing a video of a fake "extremely violent" Ukrainian attack showing bodies and actors playing the role of mourners, to serve as a pretext to invade Ukraine.

On the other hand, there is a possibility to resume a real dialogue next week during a meeting between the heads of US and Russian diplomacy.


Fourth: Why does Putin personally supervise the military exercises?

On Saturday, Russia carried out maneuvers of its strategic forces under the supervision of President Vladimir Putin, and stated that it was related - in particular - to the launch of ballistic and cruise missiles, which are the forces of strategic deterrence.

It also included soldiers from the Russian Southern Military District, Aerospace Forces, Strategic Forces, and the North Sea and Black Sea Fleets.

The aim of these exercises - according to the Russian Ministry of Defense - is to "test the readiness" of the participating forces and "the reliability of nuclear and non-nuclear strategic weapons."

Russian "strategic" forces - in their broadest definition - are designed to respond to threats, including in the event of a nuclear war, and are equipped with ICBMs, long-range strategic bombers, submarines, surface ships, and naval aviation carrying conventional long-range missiles.