How could the conflict in Ukraine affect the countryside?

• For several days, tensions between Ukraine and Russia have taken another turn with bombardments in the east of the country, around the separatist provinces of Donbass.

• Emmanuel Macron spoke again with Vladimir Putin this Sunday, obtaining the promise of an attempt to obtain a ceasefire.

  The Russian president also told him that he wanted to withdraw his troops from Belarus.

• The outgoing president is particularly active on the diplomatic level, where the other candidates cannot take advantage of it to carve out presidential stature.

  But could their positions weigh in the campaign?

Let's start with a paradox: in opinion polls, the international situation is very far behind purchasing power, global warming or immigration in the concerns of the French for this presidential election.

However, social networks are buzzing with real concern about Russian or American ambitions in Eastern Europe, and at

, we have noticed that our Ukraine-Russia lives are hitting audiences (thank you for 'elsewhere).

But can there be between the two?

And if part of the election, of the behavior of the voters, was played out in the Crimea or in the Donbass?

For Jean-Daniel Levy, deputy director of the Harris Interactive institute and contacted by

, it is the international stature of the candidates that is at stake here, their "presidentiality".

"As soon as we have the impression that a person can make France shine beyond the borders, this person is more appreciated, respected", he explains, citing the meeting between Nicolas Sarkozy and Vladimir Poutine at the time of the crisis in Georgia.

If he could not prevent the Russian president from attacking, "it did not harm" the French, since he had "acted", he insists.

And among the candidates, there is one who can do better than the others: the undeclared Emmanuel Macron.

The monopoly of the power to act

"First because as president, he can act", points out Jean-Daniel Levy, who also notes that the current tenant of the Elysée "gives the impression of mastering and knowing what he is doing. ".

This desire to act internationally to carve out a presidential costume has been visible for several months.

Last October, the researcher in information and communication sciences Alexandre Eyries, interviewed by

, already spoke of a "word struck from the corner of the experience".

In the midst of discussions to maintain peace, Emmanuel Macron counts, and he obtained this Sunday from Vladimir Putin a desire to achieve a ceasefire.

Our compass of populism

Alongside the current president, who had made an impression by being the first Western leader to travel to Kiev and Moscow, “the others have a little trouble appearing credible”, judges Jean-Daniel Levy.

However, it is not for lack of trying to take part in the debate, like Sandrine Rousseau asking for Ukraine to join the European Union, or Valérie Pécresse demanding "a speech of steely firmness" against Vladimir Putin.

But the LR candidate is also ready to give Moscow the promise to tell Ukraine that its NATO membership "is not on the agenda", which may sound like an admission of weakness.

#Ukraine must enter Europe.

#UkraineInvasion

— Sandrine Rousseau (@sandrousseau) February 19, 2022

Access to this content has been blocked to respect your choice of consent

By clicking on "

", you accept the deposit of cookies by external services and will thus have access to third-party content

I ACCEPT

You can also modify your choices at any time via "choice of consent".

More information on the Cookie Management Policy page.

"Jean-Luc Mélenchon's positions on Venezuela were not detrimental to him"

On the far right, the subject is not really privileged to attract voters.

Eric Zemmour takes the opportunity above all to recall his attachment to the idea of ​​sovereignty of France, believing that Emmanuel Macron is "the little telegraph operator" of NATO.

An expression that was mainly retained for its fairly dated reference, but which says nothing about the diplomacy that the polemicist would lead.

As for Marine Le Pen, who believes that "diplomacy is not done at the last moment", the RN candidate is often on the edge when speaking of Russia, since Russian funding for her last campaign could resurface.

However, even if "we can think that the most pro-Russian are Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Fabien Roussel, we can see that Mélenchon's positions on Venezuela have not been detrimental to him", notes Jean-Daniel Levy again.

The LFI leader wants a “non-aligned” France, insisting on respect for the Ukrainian border while refusing the Americans “to annex Ukraine into NATO”.

In the end, the only one who can score points in the current situation seems to be Emmanuel Macron, whatever stature the other candidates may try to give themselves by speaking out which will not resonate "beyond our borders".

However, this is where “the fundamental question” of the relationship between the election and the diplomatic crisis lies, according to Jean-Daniel Levy.

There remains a hiatus: what if war is declared?

The managing director of Harris Interactive admits having "no idea" of the consequences on the election, since we "do not know the decisions that could be taken", nor of the warlike or pacifist positions of the candidates who are up against the wall.

World

Ukraine – Russia conflict LIVE: Macron will meet with Biden and Sholz “in the next few hours”…

World

Ukraine-Russia conflict: Everything indicates that Russia "is planning a full attack" on Ukraine, according to the head of NATO...

• Countryside

• Diplomacy

• Presidential election 2022

• Russia

• Ukraine

• Elections

• 0 comment

• 0 share

  • Share on Messenger

  • Share on Facebook

  • Share on Twitter

  • Share on Flipboard

  • Share on Pinterest

  • Share on Linkedin

  • Send by Mail

• To safeguard

• A fault ?

• To print