State elections in the year after a federal election often follow a logic that has more to do with the balance of power in the federal government than with the state political balance sheet - just as if every federal government needed a Bundesrat in which the opposition is not condemned to being an extra.
This year could be different.
If the CDU were no longer the strongest party in Saarland, North Rhine-Westphalia and Schleswig-Holstein, it would have happened to three of their six presidents.
All eyes are therefore on the election in Saarland, where the dance begins.
There are still five weeks until March 27, in which something like a miracle must happen so that Tobias Hans can stay in the state chancellery, which Oskar Lafontaine once brought to national prominence.
Sympathy is not enough
But the youthful-looking CDU politician may have been omnipresent nationwide for a long time when it comes to Corona, but the majority of the Saarlanders want to be governed by the SPD's top candidate, Anke Rehlinger.
However, sympathy alone is not the decisive factor, unless it is underpinned by attributions of competence for the respective party.
But if the co-governing SPD outclasses the leading CDU in almost all policy areas, then the Union should not wait for a miracle, but should try to explain a lot to the citizens.