"No leader or leader will come through propaganda, an Israeli tank, or a regional or international decision. The next Palestinian president will come through the election boxes."
This was the last statement of Hussein al-Sheikh, a member of the Executive Committee of the Palestine Liberation Organization, who is approaching day after day the seat of authority since he was granted an important position a few days ago, during the recent appointments made by the Palestine Liberation Organization through its Central Council of the Central Committee of the movement.
The "Sheikh" has become the most important official Palestinian source from which the media reports statements and news, despite his low popularity in the Palestinian interior. Sometimes he talks about accepting new "unification" requests from the Israelis, and at other times he denounces the Israeli attacks on Jenin and the Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood.
Some interpret the game of climbing the ladder of positions in which the sheikh enjoys the support of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, with the latter's desire to resolve the issue of his successor as soon as possible, as Abbas wants to divide the cake of power now and without delay.
On the legal level, the Palestinian Basic Law stipulates that the Speaker of the House of Representatives is the one who sits on the presidency temporarily in the event of the death of the President or his inability to carry out his duties, pending the results of the presidential elections, something that may never happen due to the state of the Palestinian division that reaches its extent. Sometimes to the Palestinian factions themselves, which prevents the chances of establishing an elected parliament anytime soon.
Mahmoud Abbas and Hussein Sheikh
Behind the scenes of a frenetic race
After 4 years of suspension, the session of the Central Council of the Palestine Liberation Organization, which was held on the seventh of February, brought several surprises. In this session, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas wanted to fill key leadership roles in the organization.
As soon as the council meeting, which was held over two days under the title "Developing and activating the Palestine Liberation Organization and protecting the national project and popular resistance", which was boycotted by a number of Palestinian factions, it was announced that a number of people close to Abbas had been promoted to high positions.
At first, eyes were drawn to the person who would occupy the seat of the late Saeb Erekat as Secretary of the Executive Committee of the Palestine Liberation Organization - the highest decision-making body in the organization - under whose care the Palestinian Authority operates. The choice fell on Abbas’s closest advisor and one of the most powerful Palestinian officials in the West Bank, who is The same Hussein al-Sheikh, 61, a Fatah leader who keeps meeting with Israeli officials and foreign diplomats, about whom a former senior Israeli security official said: “This is our man, our relationship with him is very good. He does a lot to ensure stability on the ground, but his position locally is problematic. Very much, it is a symbol of the corruption of the Palestinian Authority."
On the other hand, Salim al-Zanoun took over the position of his predecessor, "Rouhi Fattouh" (73 years), at the head of the National Assembly after the latter submitted his resignation due to his advanced age.
The Palestinian president hopes that the authorities will pass smoothly, as happened earlier when he assumed the presidency of the Palestinian Authority after the death of Yasser Arafat, but the atmosphere and scenarios look very different at the moment.
In this regard, the professor of political science at Al-Azhar University in Gaza, "Naji Sharrab," says that Fatah considers the presidency of the authority, the presidency of the Central Council, and the presidency of the organization a right, but in the event that the presidency is vacant and elections are held, the first scenario will be that the head of the Legislative Council is Himself the president of the Palestinian Authority is highly unlikely because of his legal and constitutional impossibility.
As for the second scenario, according to the same speaker, which is to hand over the presidency of the Palestine Liberation Organization to its secretary, who accordingly will also sit on the chair of the presidency of the Authority, it is theoretically possible, but this scenario will face a great political challenge, as the presidency of the organization may not need to hold elections, Reversing the presidency of the authority, which is supposed to take place by popular choice, Shurrab continued in his speech to Maidan: "The closest scenario will be Hussein Al-Sheikh assuming the presidency of the PLO and the authority as well, then the most difficult stage will begin during which the new president will aim to obtain regional, Arab and international recognition." He added, "The sheikh is Abbas's favorite candidate, and perhaps the type of tasks assigned to him by the president of the Palestinian Authority recently confirm this, and confirm that Hassan al-Sheikh is the expected caliph."
However, this view does not appear to be unanimous among analysts.
For his part, Talal Awkal, writer and political analyst, considered during his interview with Meydan that there are several facts that question the possibility of Sheikh Abbas' succession. Those with Arab, regional and international interests in choosing the president of the Palestinian Authority, not to mention the Israeli role in this process.
The political analyst continued his words by saying: "Giving the responsibility of the Palestine Liberation Organization does not necessarily mean heading the Palestinian Authority and the Fatah movement, as the movement has a vice president, and this does not necessarily mean that this deputy will be the future president of the Palestinian National Authority, because the presidency of the authority is according to the Basic Law, that is, through election.
Okal also points to potential conflicts between potential candidates from the Fatah movement, which are hindering the entire transition process.
In this context, we can refer to the movement's deputy head "Mahmoud Al-Aloul" and the prisoner "Marwan Barghouti" and others.
The political analyst concluded his speech to Maidan by saying: "I do not think that they unanimously agreed on the personality of Hussein al-Sheikh as successor to President Mahmoud Abbas, even if Saeb Erekat remained in the same position until now, it was not certain that he would be the successor of President Mahmoud Abbas, for the same reasons that I mentioned." .
Is it time to split the cake?
At the beginning of this year, the seventeenth anniversary of the last presidential elections for the Palestinian Authority came. These elections witnessed Mahmoud Abbas' victory over Mustafa Barghouti, to begin his term, which was supposed to last only 4 years.
Abbas’s term ended in 2009, but the internal political situation in occupied Palestine did not remain in place due to the internal division caused by the refusal of the Fatah movement to recognize the victory of Hamas in the last legislative elections. Ballot boxes.
Although the Palestinian people have not seen during the past years any serious attempt by Abbas to arrange the divided Palestinian house, his announcement at the beginning of last year of holding presidential and parliamentary elections was a pleasant surprise and a lifeline, as the Palestinian President issued a presidential decree stipulating that legislative elections be held on the 22nd May, with the presidential elections to be held on the 31st of the same month.
However, Abbas, who was trying at the time to mend relations with the administration of US President Joe Biden, which had just reached the White House, quickly confirmed the great doubts that hovered about his seriousness in holding the elections, and indeed the Palestinian president announced, at the height of civil preparations for these elections, that they were postponed to Indefinitely, claiming that Israel refused to allow the Palestinians in East Jerusalem to vote, while analysts considered that his decision came out of fear of his rivals, whether Hamas or even competitors within the Fatah movement itself.
The Palestinian president, who has been in power for 17 years, is facing increasing opposition from several parties, and with his health deteriorating and his old age, the economic situation worsens, both in the Palestinian Authority areas, where his forces exercise limited self-rule in the West Bank, or in the Gaza Strip, where they run Hamas is in power, and in general, the current stage is witnessing great popular discontent with the Palestinian Authority, as a result of its failure to end the division, complete Palestinian reconciliation and pressure the occupation to abide by the signed agreements, in addition to the low level of the service and security sector inside the Palestinian territories.
According to a report published by the Hebrew newspaper, The Times of Israel, the president of the Palestinian Authority, who is also the head of the Palestine Liberation Organization, heads a widely unpopular regime, and is adopting an increasingly authoritarian style after his insistence on continuing to rule by executive order despite the expiry of his term nearly 13 years old.
The report adds: “Although Abbas is aging in poor health, he has not appointed a successor. Several contenders are trying to secure the position, including the sheikh, the exiled security chief Muhammad Dahlan, and Marwan Barghouti, who is serving several life sentences. Life in Israeli prisons.
Jihad Harb, an expert in Palestinian political affairs, told Maidan the reason for the interest in the successor of President Mahmoud Abbas for several reasons, the first of which is the president's health and advanced age, which makes the possibility of his position vacant more than before, in addition to the absence of institutional mechanisms To fill this political vacuum in the event that it occurs in the absence of elections for the Legislative Council, which means the inability to implement the text of Article 37 of the Basic Law in the event of Abbas stepping down or his death, with the absence of a leadership capable of solving the problems that may result from the president’s absence in general. Surprised by the scene.
The challenges of the "post-Abbas" phase
On the land of Khan Yunis, in the south of the Gaza Strip, the opening of the "His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan Hospital" was announced on February 12, which was built on an area of 8 acres with "resolute efforts from the leader of the movement, Muhammad Dahlan," according to media outlets. Media affiliated with the dismissed Palestinian leader from the Fatah movement, and the most prominent opponent of President Mahmoud Abbas.
This opening, which was preceded by the days of the arrival of one million doses of the “Sputnik” vaccine against Corona to the residents of the Gaza Strip from the Emirates as well, was the most prominent manifestation of Dahlan’s increasing influence in the Strip. This influence is based on his close and in-depth relations with the leaders of the region, especially the UAE and Egypt, since he was expelled from Fatah after his dispute with Abbas, taking advantage of Hamas' need for financial aid due to the Israeli and international blockade imposed on it.
However, Dahlan's influence is not limited to the Gaza Strip. "Abu Fadi", as his followers call him, has also bought himself influence in the refugee camps in the West Bank and Lebanon for years. For example, he succeeded in building strong bases in Jenin camp, which is a major security thorn in the region. Israelis and the Palestinian Authority alike, as well as in Balata refugee camp, Qalandia camp near Jerusalem, Al-Amari camp near Ramallah, and elsewhere in the West Bank.
Dahlan is considered the most prominent challenger to Abbas's authority among his opponents, and one of the possible successors to the presidency of the authority, but he is not the only one on the list. There is the intelligence chief, "Majid Faraj", whose efforts in security coordination impress the Israelis and the Americans, and there is also "Marwan Barghouti" who is serving a life sentence. In Israeli prisons, he was the commander of the Al-Aqsa Brigades (the military wing of Fatah movement) between 2000-2005, next to Jibril Rajoub, who previously commanded Preventive Security in the West Bank, and now maintains his public presence through his role in sports bodies, in addition to his election Last year, Secretary-General of the Central Committee of the Fatah movement.
Mohamed Dahlan
In addition to the above, Hamas’ competition for the seat of Abbas’s succession remains the most dangerous of the plans of the current Palestinian Authority president, as the dispute between the two parties has persisted since the last Palestinian elections in 2006. Analysts attributed Abbas’s cancellation of the elections, which was announced about a year ago, to his fear From the victory of Hamas, the movement is increasing in popularity, not only in the Gaza Strip, but also in the West Bank, in the heart of the Fatah movement, even though the international community insists on its refusal to deal with it as a Palestinian party in control of the government.
Based on the foregoing, "Talal Okal" does not rule out that choosing a successor to Abbas will lead to a fierce conflict among the Palestinians, as he told Maidan: "The conflict is expected as long as the division continues, and it deepens in practice because of the selection mechanisms in the Palestine Liberation Organization that are based on individual accounts and hegemony. One party in the movement at the expense of another, all of this will eventually lead to a conflict over choosing Abbas’s successor, which is supposed to be on the basis of national consensus.” Data that make it difficult to solve the problems related to the internal Palestinian situation.
Jihad Harb, an expert in Palestinian political affairs, agrees with this proposition, considering that the vacancy of the presidency may cause many disputes, mainly due to the poor organization of the transfer of power, and the inability of the political leadership to control the situation at the present time in light of the lack of clarity The centers of power interfering in the scene, and he adds: "If we had a Legislative Council, the process of transferring power would be easier, and there would be no problems regarding the centers of power in the Palestinian political system."
"In the absence of clear mechanisms, other external parties will appear to play a role in tipping the scales of some people, but I do not think that the Palestinian parties will have the ability to install anyone whom the Palestinian people do not want," Harb said.
In conclusion, although the departure of Mahmoud Abbas portends a fierce war between the Palestinians from all sides, the role of the Israeli occupying state cannot be ignored, which will not accept a president carrying a political program that contradicts its plans, as it will try, with other external parties, to participate in establishing a successor on Abbas’s size, whether I did this by agreement, or by imposing a fait accompli.