This weekend, several reports came in that a Russian invasion of Ukraine could take place on 16 February.

One of the media houses that wrote about the information was American Politico.

But by the time Wednesday passed, no invasion had begun.

- If it is because it was not intended at all or because the Russians reacted to the American information?

We do not know, and we will probably never know either, says Jan Hallenberg, US expert and research leader at UI.

We are insecure, and that is good for Russia

According to Johan Norberg, research leader at FOI, there is a huge round of unverified information, and that it is difficult even for experts to fully understand what is really happening.

- We see an effect now where we are kept in uncertainty.

We are insecure, and that is good for Russia.

However, they have lost the strategic surprise, that is, military build-up.

But it retains the military initiative, to the extent that if there were to be a war, Russia would choose time, place and strength.

- That you use different types of deception and scam is not strange, it is part of the art of war, he continues.

"I think the tactics affect Russia's actions"

At the same time, the United States continues its tactic of leaking information about the opponent's next move.

Most recently on Thursday, Joe Biden said that the risk of a Russian invasion is "very large" and can occur within "a few days".

But I Hallenberg do not think the tactics will be watered down.

- I do not think so, because it is such a high game with such high costs.

I think this tactic affects Russia's actions.

- But we must also realize that this is a long-term plan that Russia has.

They had an escalation against Ukraine in April 2021. They can escalate whenever they want with new forces to get through their goals.