By revealing an unprecedented amount of intelligence, the United States hopes that it will make it difficult for Russia to create a justification for the invasion of Ukraine, an ambitious but risky strategy for Washington.

A month ago, the US administration revealed an increasing number of classified information about the movements of Russian forces on the borders of Ukraine and the plans attributed to Russian President Vladimir Putin, sometimes publicly and otherwise, during press interviews by senior US intelligence officials who rarely speak to the media.

In this context, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken presented in detail - yesterday, Thursday - to the UN Security Council the “disastrous scenario” of an imminent Russian attack on Ukraine expected by US intelligence, including first “fabricating a pretext” allowing Moscow to “announce that it must respond to defend Russian citizens or the Russian-speaking population of Ukraine", then attacked by "missiles and bombs".

And Blinken added - without presenting evidence - that after that, "communications are cut off, and cyber attacks paralyze vital Ukrainian institutions... Then tanks and soldiers advance towards key targets that have been identified in advance," including the capital, Kiev.

American officials also accurately described the military apparatus that Russia deploys on the Ukrainian border. They numbered - according to the latest figures - more than 150,000 soldiers and thousands of special forces, combat and bomber aircraft, missiles, anti-aircraft, and amphibious landing mechanisms stationed in the Black Sea, all of which are details They are rarely publicly disclosed.


Russian tactics revealed

And Douglas London - a former agent in the secret services who spent 34 years in the Central Intelligence Agency "CIA" (CIA) - said that the "unprecedented" volume of information revealed by the Americans indicates that this is Washington's response to its disinformation operations. Russia in recent years, particularly during the 2016 presidential election.

And he wrote in an article - published by the magazine "Foreign Affairs" - that "Washington is finally rising to the level of its opponents, including Russia and WikiLeaks, by using information to influence events."

However, a senior US official confirmed to Agence France-Presse that the United States - due to its keenness to preserve the international order - does not want to respond to media disinformation with another disinformation.

The aim of its move - therefore - is to expose the tactics that the Kremlin may use, so that public opinion can show media disinformation, and not fall into the trap of invoking provocative actions.

The United States says that Russia is preparing an operation "under a false flag," a term meaning that a country uses opponent symbols to camouflage and create confusion.

By doing so, Washington hopes to dispel the risks of creating a spark to ignite war in the region.


Promotional video

Last Wednesday, US State Department spokesman Ned Price cited Russian President Vladimir Putin's statement of a "genocide" against Russian-speaking citizens in the breakaway regions of Donbas and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine, stressing that "there is not an iota of truth in these accusations."

And the Pentagon spokesman, John Kirby, had confirmed before that that Moscow was planning to film a "propaganda video" of a fabricated attack attributed to the Ukrainian army, which would be "extremely brutal, showing corpses and actors performing the roles of mourners, and pictures of destroyed sites", to be used. Justification for the invasion of Ukraine.

And Douglas London considered that the disclosure of this information complicated matters for Moscow, saying, "The more Washington reveals about Russia's actions and intentions, the fewer options for Putin" to justify an attack.


risky strategy

However, the new US strategy carries risks.

While it is now easy to monitor troop movements via commercial satellites, every element exposed gives Russian intelligence indications how to gather information and allows Moscow to adjust its plans.

Also, the credibility of US intelligence - which was hit by the "evidence" presented by former US Secretary of State Colin Powell in 2003 from the United Nations tribune about a weapons of mass destruction program attributed to then-Iraqi President Saddam Hussein - may decline further if Moscow withdraws its forces from the Ukrainian border without launching an attack.

However, the United States appears willing to take this risk.

"This would be the best possible outcome, and we would have saved thousands of lives," a senior US official told AFP.