"The fight against terrorism cannot justify everything."
In a context of increased tensions between Paris and Bamako, Emmanuel Macron confirmed, Thursday, February 17, the departure of France from Mali.
Pushed out by its former ally who recently expelled its ambassador, Paris is being forced to accelerate the regional redeployment of its military operation in the Sahel.
If Emmanuel Macron has called for greater involvement of the countries of the Gulf of Guinea, such as Benin, Togo or Côte d'Ivoire, the French president is betting above all on strengthening his partnership with Niger, which already houses the main air base of Operation Barkhane, as well as the joint command post with the G5 Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali, Mauritania, Niger and Chad).
“With the agreement of the Nigerien authorities, European elements will be repositioned alongside the Nigerien armed forces in the border region of Mali,” Emmanuel Macron announced Thursday during his press conference.
Capital closest to the area of the three borders (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger) which is today the epicenter of terrorist attacks, Niamey has become a crucial point of support for French military operations.
However, if Paris maintains good relations with its president, Mohamed Bazoum, the country is not spared by the rise of anti-French sentiment which crosses West Africa.
France 24 deciphers the ins and outs of this strategic and fragile partnership.
Obligatory passage for the French military redeployment
On July 9, 2021, a few weeks after the announcement of the end of Operation Barkhane, Emmanuel Macron gave a press conference from the Elysee Palace to detail the new French military strategy in the Sahel.
That day, while a virtual meeting had taken place with the G5 Sahel partners, only the Nigerien president, Mohamed Bazoum, was invited to Paris alongside the French president.
"Niamey will be very strong," said Emmanuel Macron, thanking his Nigerian counterpart for "his confidence and his commitment".
While France wishes to redirect the anti-jihadist fight towards the center of Mali, in the so-called Liptako area and to emphasize aviation, Niger is now considered a priority partner.
"Paris is concerned to see the jihadist threat descending from Mali towards the Gulf of Guinea", explains to France 24 Idrissa Abdourahmane, Nigerien researcher at the Center for African Studies in Leiden, in the Netherlands.
“Burkina Faso and Niger are both on the front line, but Niger has so far been less overwhelmed by the terrorist danger and therefore considered by Paris as a safer ally,” he continues.
"With the rapid deterioration of relations between France and Mali and the coup d'etat in Burkina, Niamey has today become an obligatory passage for French military redeployment."
The President of the Republic HE @mohamedbazoum, participated this February 16, 2022, at the Elysée Palace, in a working dinner with his peers from Chad, Mauritania, Senegal (AU Presidency), Ghana ( ECOWAS Presidency) and the President of the European Council.
pic.twitter.com/YjN1erei6z
— Presidency of Niger (@PresidenceNiger) February 16, 2022
A "presentable" government
Besides its strategic position, Niger has another major advantage for France.
In the area of the three borders, where Paris concentrates its operations, this country is now the only one to be led by a democratically elected president.
In a regional context marked by an upsurge in coups d'état, Niger is a good student for the West.
The contrast is all the stronger since Mohamed Bazoum came to power on February 23, 2021 after a historic election, marking the first democratic transition since the country's independence.
A victory which had then earned him the "wishes of success" of Emmanuel Macron, quick to salute "this peaceful transmission of power", despite accusations of fraud from the opposition.
"The good relationship between Paris and Niamey precedes the coming to power of Mohamed Bazoum," said Idrissa Abdourahmane.
"It was his predecessor, Mahamadou Issoufou, who during his tenure had positioned himself as an ally of Westerners, particularly in terms of security. In succeeding him, his heir apparent Mohamed Bazoum remained on the same line, consolidating this relationship of trust. "
"Niger has the advantage of having a presentable government for France", explains to France 24 Jean-Vincent Brisset, former air brigade general and expert in defense issues at IRIS (the Institute for International Relations and strategies).
"In the current context with the presidency of the European Union and the French presidential election which is approaching, this aspect is very important", continues the expert.
"It is easier for Emmanuel Macron to show a withdrawal towards Niger than towards Burkina Faso or even towards his other great regional ally Chad, both led by the military."
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Operational weaknesses
Although Niger remains less affected than Mali and Burkina Faso by terrorism for the time being, the army is nevertheless faced with the same difficulties in stemming the progress of armed groups.
A recent report by Amnesty highlights a worsening security situation, marked by an upsurge in murders, in the Tillabéri region, a border area with Mali and Burkina where the capital Niamey is located.
President Bazoum, former Minister of the Interior and Public Security, had nevertheless promised to make the fight against terrorism the priority of his mandate.
"Like many countries in the region accustomed to coups, Niger is bearing the brunt of persistent tensions between its government and its army", analyzes Idrissa Abdourahmane.
"This reciprocal distrust prevents the necessary reforms from being undertaken within the military institution. The soldiers are quartered in camps, often poorly protected, and they become the targets of the jihadists who are very mobile. Admittedly, the current government has increased manpower and invested in equipment, but the army will not be able to be effective on the ground until a reflection is initiated to adapt it to the current conflict.
The fear of the coup
Faced with the deterioration of the security situation in Niger, the specter of a coup worries the authorities of this country, which has experienced four military putsches since its independence in 1958. A concern that is all the greater since the country does not is not spared by the anti-French sentiment that is growing in the region.
On November 27, 2021, protesters opposed to Barkhane's military presence blocked a French military convoy in the town of Tera in western Niger.
The same day, Mohamed Bazoum had denounced "the campaign led" against Barkhane in the region, before "demanding", a few weeks later, that Paris conduct an investigation into the circumstances of the death of three civilians during this incident.
"The position of the Nigerien president, now considered France's privileged ally, is very delicate in the current context, because the jihadists could decide to make him pay for his commitment to Paris", underlines Jean-Vincent Brisset.
"However, an upsurge in attacks could contribute to increasing anti-French sentiment and therefore potentially the risk of a coup."
Read also: Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso... the temptation of a coup in West Africa
Another sign of this growing concern in Niamey is the transfer of command from Takuba to the capital of Niger, announced by Emmanuel Macron in July 2021, and which has still not taken place.
"The Niamey base is certainly an important air support, but it does not allow large-scale operations to be carried out on the ground. And Niger is sorely lacking in operational capacity", continues Jean-Vincent Brisset, the former soldier.
"This withdrawal is far from being an ideal solution, but the reality is that France no longer really has the choice of choosing its partners."
Thursday during his press conference, Emmanuel Macron said that the withdrawal of French forces from Mali would be effective within six months.
The French president also indicated that the military support provided to the countries of the region would be defined soon "according to the needs they have expressed".
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