At the end of March, Saarland's Prime Minister Tobias Hans (CDU) presented himself to the voters for the first time as an incumbent - and from his point of view, that threatens to go terribly wrong as of today.
According to a recently published survey by Infratest Dimap, the CDU is only 29 percent.
The SPD, previously a junior partner in a grand coalition, has increased significantly to 38 percent.
A little over five weeks before the election, Hans has his back against the wall.
Julian Staib
Political correspondent for Hesse, Rhineland-Palatinate and Saarland based in Wiesbaden.
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In the "TV duel" against his challenger, Economics Minister and SPD top candidate Anke Rehlinger, on Thursday evening on "Saarländische Rundfunk", Hans was not overly aggressive.
This may be due to the constellation, Hans and Rehlinger have been governing quite harmoniously since the beginning of 2018.
But it may also be due to the special features of Saarland, where the CDU is very socially influenced and where the two parties can hardly be distinguished in many areas of politics - under Hans more than ever.
But it is also not Hans' style to go on the offensive – even if some in his party now think he should do so.
On Thursday evening, Hans justified the poor poll numbers of his CDU with “sanding marks” left by Corona;
as prime minister, he was the one who delivered the "bad news".
In turn, he called the good values for the SPD a "compliment for the good work of the entire government".
Controversy over compulsory vaccination
Rehlinger, on the other hand, also avoided overly offensive attacks – for example, she dodged an answer to the question of what Hans had done wrong given his poll numbers.
On the other hand, at one point or another, she pointed sharply at the Prime Minister, criticizing, for example, that the CDU had taken over SPD positions, especially in education policy (back to G9; daycare centers free of charge).
She also accused Hans of turning his back on the subject of facility-related compulsory vaccination.
The topic had recently led to a dispute between the CDU and SPD in Saarland.
After a visit by party leader Friedrich Merz in Saarbrücken, Hans followed his rejection of the project and said that the facility-related compulsory vaccination would lead to shifts between the states and would have to be suspended and improved for the time being.
Rehlinger, on the other hand, accused Hans of campaign tactics and said that it was “about nothing less than protecting the sick and those in need of care, because I find prime ministers who play the opposition simply indecent”.
Rehlinger went too far with that, Hans now said, his criticism was finally justified.
This is shown by the decision of the health ministers to introduce a nationwide measure.
Both Hans and Rehlinger emphasized the importance of the economy for the country.
The Saarland is exposed to a never-ending structural change.
In the current legislative period, there have been some economic successes, such as the settlement of a research center for the automotive supplier ZF, which Hans never tires of referring to, or the planned settlement of the electromobility provider SVolt.
However, the economic situation in the country with a little less than one million inhabitants remains difficult, as is currently shown by the fight for the Ford location alone.
Disagreement on climate and electoral law
There were differences between the positions of the two candidates on the subject of climate change: the SPD wants 80 new wind turbines, the CDU rejects it.
"Due to the small size of the country and because a large part of the country is covered with forest" there will be no new wind turbines, said Hans.
Instead, he wants more photovoltaic systems and announced support for private individuals.
Both candidates also disagreed on the right to vote for people under the age of 18 (Rehlinger in favor, Hans against).
When asked whether he would also be available as a junior partner in a grand coalition, Hans didn't really respond - there were still five and a half weeks until the election.
As the election winner, he would also make another coalition offer to the SPD.
Rehlinger, on the other hand, said on the subject of the grand coalition that she had "always" had sympathies for it.
According to the latest survey, the 45-year-old SPD top candidate is better received by people in the country than Hans – in direct comparison, 49 percent of those surveyed want Rehlinger as prime minister, while 34 percent prefer the incumbent.
The continuation of the grand coalition, but then under the opposite sign, is currently the most likely result of the Saar elections, which will be the first of several state elections this year.
For the first time in 22 years, the Social Democrats could replace the CDU as the strongest force in the Saar state parliament.
A traffic light and a red-red-green alliance is also mathematically possible.
However, the Greens, FDP and Left must tremble about entering the state parliament.
The most recent survey sees them only just above the five percent hurdle.
In addition, the state associations of the left and the Greens are hopelessly at odds - as coalition partners they are hardly in question.
On Thursday evening, Rehlinger effectively ruled out a coalition with the left, saying that it was “not capable of governing”.