Relations between France and the current rulers of Mali seem to have reached the stage of no return, after French President Emmanuel Macron wrote today the latest chapters of the estrangement in its turbulent course, since the winds of disagreement swirled strongly between the two parties.
In a move that may represent a very important turning point in the level of the French presence in the Sahel region, France and its European partners and Canada announced - today, Thursday - their military withdrawal from Mali, and the end of the "Barkhane" and "Takuba" military operations to combat the "jihadists", after 9 years of intervention. The French military in Mali to fight armed Islamist groups.
France wants military or civilian rulers of Mali who continue Bamako’s traditional loyalty to Paris. As for the military ruler of Mali, Qasimi Quetta, members of his military council and his government, they hold France responsible for much of what Mali has reached in terms of political and security collapse, and they are looking in the Russian embrace for a new bond that compensates them “the loss of French tenderness ".
Withdrawal or cover for defeat?
France broke off the controversy with a certain position, by announcing this Thursday morning its withdrawal and its allies from Mali, and the repositioning of its forces in Niger.
Presenting the justifications for the withdrawal, French President Emmanuel Macron said that it was what he described as the "hidden intentions" of the ruling military council in Mali that forced Paris and its European partners to announce the withdrawal of its forces designated to combat terrorism in the African country.
Macron added - at a press conference in Paris - that the Europeans do not share Mali's military rulers' "strategy or hidden goals," explaining that Paris and its allies participating in the "Barkhane Force" and the "Takoba Force" will withdraw their forces in a coordinated manner with the United Nations and the Malian army, provided that they return These forces deployed near the Malian border alongside Nigerian forces.
The joint statement of France and its partners (14 European countries and Canada) said that "the political, operational and legal conditions are no longer available for the continuation of its military activity in Mali."
Under this withdrawal, about 2,400 French soldiers will leave Mali to join about two thousand more of their compatriots stationed in other areas of the Sahel.
Withdrawals continued during the past month, as Denmark and Lithuania withdrew their soldiers from Mali, while Germany is heading towards withdrawing its soldiers.
While the French newspaper "Liberation" reported that the presence of the Russian Wagner Group changed everything in Mali, because no one - according to it - wanted his name to be associated with the practices of the Wagner forces accused of committing violations in Syria and the Central African Republic.
The newspaper quoted a diplomatic source as saying that coexistence with the Russians (Wagner) in Mali is impossible for the Czechs and Estonians, and that the Swedes will leave after the end of their term in February 2022, while the military council declared that the Danes are not welcome, to leave, which means that military cooperation on The land began to suffer, even before the announcement of the withdrawal.
With the European soldiers leaving Malian lands, another big question arises about the future of the international presence in Mali, and whether the 15,000 international force will be affected by the European decision, or will it “resist French pressure” for peace and the fight against terrorism.
Although the political dimension of the withdrawal was strongly present, the exit operations began several months ago, as the commander of the Barkhane force, the French General Etienne de Piero, confirmed earlier that France would remain in the Sahel, but in a different way.
During the last half of the past year, France announced its intention to reduce its forces in the Sahel region, which were estimated at about 5,000 soldiers in the summer of 2021, and this number will be reduced to about 3,000 by next summer.
France also handed over to the Malian authorities military bases in Tassalit, Kidal and Timbuktu, which means that France began folding its bags some time ago, in light of the successive military losses, and the escalation of popular resentment against it in Mali and a number of Sahel countries.
survival costs
Complex reasons and multiple backgrounds interact in the French withdrawal, and if Paris chose the political file and its relationship with the ruling military council in Mali to be a condemnation of the withdrawal, there are other reasons that made the exit from Mali an inevitable necessity, and these reasons include:
Heavy survival tax:
France has not been able to achieve its goals in Mali over the past years, as it has not been able to impose security in the northern regions, nor has it eliminated the armed groups there, although it has prevented the fall of the capital Bamako in 2012 into the hands of armed groups.
France acknowledges the killing of more than 50 of its soldiers since the start of its military intervention in Mali in 2013, in addition to the huge financial attrition that forced it to search for partners to support it financially and militarily, in the face of the aggravation of the heavy security crisis in the Sahel, especially in Mali.
Popular anger against France:
The features of this popular anger are clear in a number of West African countries, and in Mali in particular, and this anger has been exacerbated by what some opponents of Paris describe as war crimes committed by the French army in the Sahel region, which led to the death of a large number of civilians. In addition to his inability to impose security, which was the slogan and justification for the existence of French operations, in addition to that accumulated African resentment against France because of its colonial crimes, and its role in draining African wealth, and burying the dreams of democracies in the brown continent.
Effects of the French withdrawal .. Who will fill the void?
The accelerated French exit from Mali opens a huge void that is difficult to fill for the Malian government forces alone, as expressed by the Malian Prime Minister, who confirmed in previous statements that the French exit from Mali came without coordination with his country's government.
He also expressed fears of a vacuum, the presidents of Ivory Coast, Hassan Ouattara, and Senegal, Macky Sall, considering that the armies of the region should seek to block the gate of dangers that the French withdrawal might open, and that this withdrawal would force the armies of West Africa to remain on the front lines to fight the jihadists in the Sahel.
These risks are already evident in the weakness of the Malian army’s ability to expand and spread and impose control over the region, in addition to stopping French and European military support for Mali, and perhaps for African units present in Malian lands, which may exhaust their countries, and force them to withdraw their forces from the mined lands, which is what It may give armed groups an irreplaceable opportunity to deal painful blows to the Malian army, and to the international and African forces present in the region.
Russia appears to be the first candidate to fill the vacuum in Mali, and its indications began months ago through the vanguard of Wagner's forces, which began to deploy in multiple regions of Mali, in addition to the international forces, which include about 13,000 soldiers within the MINUSMA force. In addition to the forces of the Sahel countries, as well as the Malian army.
Whatever the surprise and impact of the French exit from Mali, it will not have an immediate effect, and will not directly lead to a clear collapse in the balance of power in Mali, especially since France has become more aware than others that it is an undesirable power in the Sahel, and that it is also in decline. It is continuing politically, militarily and economically, and that protecting the sources of its energy economy in Niger may take precedence over the continuation of bleeding in Mali.