With the 20th presidential election approaching on the 20th, three terrestrial broadcasters including SBS conducted a joint opinion poll.
The investigation period is for two days: the 15th, the day after the official election campaign for the presidential election, and the 16th, the day after.
First, I asked who I would vote for if tomorrow was Election Day.
Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung 35.2%, People's Power candidate Yoon Seok-yeol 39.2%, it is a close match within the margin of error.
In the 'active voters' who said "I will definitely vote," Lee Jae-myung 38% and Yoon Seok-yeol 43.5%, leading candidate Yoon Lee.
Justice Party candidate Shim Sang-jung received 3.7%, People’s Party candidate Ahn Cheol-su 8.1%,
Other candidates were below 2%.
The 'floating floor', which includes no candidates, don't know, and non-responders, was 11.8%.
When looking at the support groups for candidates Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Seok-yeol by age, those in their 40s supported Lee and those over 60 showed strong support for Candidate Yoon.
By ideological tendency, the middle class of 'People's Weathervane' showed a gap outside the margin of error with Lee Jae-myung 32.1% and Yoon Seok-yeol 37.1%.
By region, Candidate Lee was strong in Honam, and Candidate Yoon was strong in Yeongnam and Gangwon and Jeju.
The chances of winning were 40% Lee Jae-myung and 46.3% Yoon Seok-yeol, with more respondents predicting Yoon.
We also asked questions about the 'unification of opposition candidates', which emerged as a major variable at the end of the presidential election.
Assuming the power of the people and the unification of the People's Party, we asked who they would vote for. If they were unified as candidate Yoon Seok-yeol, Lee Jae-myung 36.2%, Yoon Seok-yeol 43.1%, Shim Sang-jeong 3%,
If Ahn Cheol-soo was a single candidate, Lee Jae-myung 33.1%, Shim Sang-jung 3.9%, and Ahn Cheol-soo 38.5% were surveyed.
In both cases, liberals and conservatives divided the votes between the ruling and opposition parties, and centrist respondents showed more support for the unification candidate.
When asked who should be the single candidate for the People's Power, the People's Party, and both parties, Yun Seok-yeol (42.4%) and Ahn Cheol-soo (45.3%) were tight.
Among the supporters of 'replacement of government', Yoon Seok-yeol 69.4% and Ahn Cheol-soo 26.4%, while 7.9% Yoon Seok-yeol and Ahn 74.9% of the 'extension of the government' supporters.
In particular, the concentration of candidate Ahn in the passport was strong, with 74.9% of Lee Jae-myung supporters choosing Ahn.
Regarding the nature of this presidential election, 36.3% needed to strengthen the ruling party candidate for 'extension of the government' and 54.9% should strengthen the opposition party candidate for 'regime change'.
Regarding President Moon Jae-in's state-of-the-art management, 43.7% gave a positive evaluation and 54% had a negative evaluation.
The party approval ratings were 34.9% for the Democratic Party and 38.4% for the People's Power, competing within the margin of error, with 4.9% for the Justice Party and 4.4% for the People's Party.
As for the candidates they currently support, 82.7% said they would 'continue to support them'.
As for the reasons for choosing candidates to support, 29.3% of the candidates for a fair society and 28.3% of those suitable for economic development were followed by morality, security/diplomacy, and overcoming the corona crisis.
The voting intention reached 96%, including 83% of the 'active voters'.
Other details will be delivered on 'SBS 8 News' starting at 11:10 pm on the 17th.
For this survey, 3 terrestrial broadcasters including SBS commissioned the presidential exit polls, such as Ipsos, and got responses from 2,06 voters nationwide on the 15th and 16th, and the sampling error is ±2.2 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. .
The three broadcasting companies will conduct a joint exit survey on the day of the presidential election on March 9, and deliver the results at 7:30 pm, when all voting for corona confirmed patients is closed.
<Survey Overview>
Investigation Request: SBS, KBS, MBC
Research Institutions: Ipsos, Korea Research, Korea Research
Survey Date: February 15-16, 2022
Target: 2,006 men and women 18 years of age or older nationwide (gender/age ·A wireless virtual number is extracted after region assignment)
Survey method: Wireless phone interview
response rate: 20.2% (2,006 people were successfully surveyed through calls with a total of 9,941 people)
Weighting method: Weighted values by gender, age, and region (cell weighted/end of January 2022) Based on the resident registration population of the Ministry of Public Administration and Security)
Sample error: ±2.2%p (95% confidence level)
For more information, see the National Election Opinion Survey Deliberation Committee or SBS website.